Chile Constitutional Referendum, October 25th 2020

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After 1 month of protests, Chile is going to have a constitutional referendum in April 2020. Honestly, I can't hide my happiness, because it's something that many Chileans have been craving for years.

The referendum will have two questions:
1. Do you want a new constitution? Yes/No
2. How do you want the constitution to be drafted? Constitutional Convention (aka Constitutional Assembly)/Mix Convention (mix of congressional representatives and other people elected in a special election).

If approved, there is going to be an election (in November I think) to elect the assembly members, there is still unknown too much about this process, but for sure this assembly will work for 9 months, with an extension of 3.
Any article in the constitution will require 2/3 of the assembly. It is a tabula rasa.

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How did Pinera manage to hit 10%? Got the impression that it was more like .00001%...

Anyways, congrats to the Chilean people. Are there any details about how the Assembly elections will take place (partisan or not?)?  

He still has some support, specially among the upper class, also, many people from the right don't care about politics and they are in the "peace" camp (like: no more violence, choose peace), but most of them they don't care about the protests (or human rights violations), they just want everything go back the way it was before (impossible right now), but as I told you, they are mostly from the upper class, (eg. many friends or former friends of mine). In addition,  there are some people (few but still) that still believe this is a sabotage from Venezuela.

About the details oft he assembly, we still don't know.

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Wait so Chile might elect a Communist in the next election?

That would be both hilarious and extremely surprising in a way. Even considering the downfall of traditional parties you'd normally expect some sort of populist to rise up.

(or is it simply too early to talk about the next presidential election?)

Also while I understand why he is beloved (national trauma and all) I am surprised to see Allende so highly rated. I imagine if you did such a poll during his presidency he'd be less popular?

The Communist Party isn't a traditional party. Yes, it was founded in 1922 and has been part of many governing coalitions during the country's history, but is total different entity. First, the party isolated from the political process from 1990 until Gladys Marin's death. They were (and are) very critical of the transition, so they don't have to pay the costs other political parties have. And despite that, the party worst result was 3.2%, which is not bad. This connects to the second point. The party is a basically a cultural movement, is composed of families in which all members are communists and the party strongly encourage its members to participate in every possible social organization. And they have been very successful at that (see the protests of 2006, 2011 and well-now they have Jadue which is not a protest leader, but is leading a political project in Recoleta that many Chileans see as a role model).

The main enemy of the party is its sectarian nature. Their response on Venezuela is the first of many bad responses Jadue will make. They are very disciplined but that is a problem when inside the party are people that are openly sympathetic to the Maduro regime (although I don't think there are many) and others think this is a trap made by the right and other parties. But as the probability of a strong Jadue candidacy the party will have to make a choice: be more flexible or maintain this strong cohesive culture. Letting its best cards to have their own voice (like Camila Vallejo and Jadue) will not be enough.

I heard from a FA guy that right now the Jadue team is focusing right now in the following: antagonizing the leadership of most of the center-left parties and at the same time getting closer to the bases of those parties. And apparently the bases of PPD and PS are pretty excited about a Jadue candidacy. 

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Yesterday started the political ads for the referendum (2 times a day, mandatory for every channel). One ad is at 12:45pm and the other is at 8:45pm (one for the first question and other for the second question, every position has 7 minutes and 30 seconds)

First (Constitutional Convention or Mix Convention)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q66vZZslB0
Starts with the Mix convention

Second (Approve or Reject new constitution)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lY1CKPZTiPE
Starts with Reject

A little messy, but funny (I have to say, Reject and Jiles made me cringe).

is gonna be fun

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It's also pretty funny to see Evópoli, a party I'd expect to be full of muh liberal anti-populist technocracy types literally start their ads with "la política es una mierda" lol.

But then my expectations were probably wrong. I'm increasingly confused by the structure of Chilean right - I always assumed that there are starker differences between the two main parties. I thought that RN is a "standard Western conservative party", if quite a bit more right-wing than usual, and UDI is a weird combination of semi-open Pinochetistas and "hello fellow working class weones" people - to use an extremely silly comparision, RN = Romney and UDI = Trump.

Could you explain what are the dividing lines between them?

Most people in Chile think the same way as you, but in reality the differences are not as clear and both parties are the result of a long process (the transition)

Pinochet was very succesful (just as Franco) in united the right, which wasn't at all  a monolithic block. Most of the right merged into a party called PARENA (National Renewal Party, the old RN), of which Ricardo Rivadeneira assumed as president, while Jaime Guzman (from the UDI), Andres Allamand (from the National Party) and Juan de Dios Carmona (the nationalist) assumed as vicepresidents. Before PARENA the UDI already existed as a gremialist movement.

In 1987 a dispute inside the party ocurred and the UDI split it from PARENA (this is an interesting event because from what I heard a brawl ocurred in which chairs were throwed).

The UDI kept its position as the gremialist party (which is an interesting ideology that I strongly despise) but accepted other elements (for example, Evelyn Matthei was member of RN but due to the Piñeragate she left the party and joined the UDI).

Well, PARENA became RN, which is basically a party that contained different right-of-center ideologies (think for example Carlos Larrain, which is more conservative than the average UDI, but also has people like Marcela Sabat). I would say that the party depends more on local leaders, who can be more or less conservative than the average UDI.

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I have to add the following, in Chile college politics is very important, and when I was a humble undergrad, an interesting event occurred at my alma mater. To put in context, the gremialist movement was founded in my university and the right is pretty strong. Since the 70s the gremialists were a united block but in 2010 the movement split. One member of the gremialists founded its own political movement called Solidaridad (Solidarity) because he though the greamialists abandoned their origins (among other things that I don't know/don't remember).

Solidarity focused a lot on being very conservative on social issues but not that much on economic issues (although they were pretty paternalistic) and were particularly popular among the most right-wing faculties (in addition, these faculties had the most well-off student body).

The thing is that the founder of Solidaridad was Diego Schalper, which is now known for being a right-wing congressman (and very polemic). He is in RN, despite that his natural home is the UDI.

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We also have two new (hopeless) presidential candidates

The hopeless presidential candidate have become our own archetype, the Chilean version of a Quixote. Man, just to remember Tomas Jocelyn-Holt gives me goosebumps. And to see all the politicians that 2 years before every election announce they candidacy in front of 1 journalist from a regional newspaper is always nice to see.

Although others like Marcel Claude are really dangerous and deserve to be taken to a mental facility

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The Communists have the only leftist presidential candidate that is polling well currently, Daniel Jadue, known for innovative ideas in local government. It seems he would easily win a big opposition primary but generates a lot of resistance among center-left elites and the communist have this nasty tendency of defending Venezuela/Cuba, so I don't think he could actually win.

In other news: The Broad Front has officially rejected primaries with the ex-New Majority parties because they have "conservative and neoliberal elements". Despite that, they are totally fine doing omission pacts when it's convenient for them. Ah... you know, this was so expected that I'm not even mad. I just hope they pay it at the ballot box. At least they are getting crucified in the press and Twitter, so that's fun.

Although the timing of the press release was the worst, I agree with the Broad Front on this. Why we need to talk about primaries right now? In addition, this agreement excludes the communist and other movements. Why the Christian Democrats have the right to veto the communists while the Broad Front have to renounce potential alliances with other movements/parties? This looks like a move to outplay the Broad Front (and they were outsmarted). I even think this is not the right time to talk about presidential primaries, come on, we are in the middle of a constitutional process.

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But I can understand them, the average dirigent of the FA is so rich and privileged that I believe them when they say that the NM and the right are the same. It's poor people that suffer the consequences, not them. Now they will continue to do grandstanding on twitter while allowing the right to continue running this country into the ground

Well, the most intransigent sectors from the Broad Front aren't the 'rich guys' (like Jackson and Boric) but people like Claudia Mix. Those sectors are particularly resentful against people from the old concertacion.

In addition, I really don't see why you need to have national primaries for regional/municipal elections, as you lose the opportunity to establish alliances with local social movements.

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Other thing, as we see some good mayoral examples (Castro, Jadue, Codina, etc.) we forget how nasty and toxic was mayoral politics in Chile until 2016. There were a worrying number of Concertacion mayors that ruled their communes in a nasty way: Pavez in La Pintana, Puyol in Macul and many other examples. And honestly, the relationship between center-left politicians and narco politics in southern Santiago is very worrying. That is why many independents won in 2016 (La Pintana, Macul, Pedro Aguirre Cerda, etc) but still there are local caudillos ready to return and others are still in power.


The Broad Front is almost inexistent in many parts of the country, but they are particularly active in southern Santiago, and they are very hostile against local former Concertacion politicians.

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But I can understand them, the average dirigent of the FA is so rich and privileged that I believe them when they say that the NM and the right are the same. It's poor people that suffer the consequences, not them. Now they will continue to do grandstanding on twitter while allowing the right to continue running this country into the ground

Well, the most intransigent sectors from the Broad Front aren't the 'rich guys' (like Jackson and Boric) but people like Claudia Mix. Those sectors are particularly resentful against people from the old concertacion.

In addition, I really don't see why you need to have national primaries for regional/municipal elections, as you lose the opportunity to establish alliances with local social movements.

Yeah, all the good that is going to do when the right is going to cruise to victory purely on the basis of the division of the left.  Why can't the candidates in the primary establish alliances with the social movements and then face the traditional parties at the ballot box? The reason is clear, the Broad Front, simply does not think it's convenient for them. If this was just purism they wouldn't be open to omission pacts that scream "Old politics"

FA is just putting themselves before national interest. And yes, I'm for unity for unity sake when there are thousands of humans right violations of which only a small fraction is being investigated. Just look at the state of the country for god's sake. If after seeing the last year the Broad Front can't see why it's so important to keep the right out of power then they really are just a bunch of entitled kids.

I would vote for the Christian Democrats a million times before voting for anything slightly related to the Broad Front

I agree with you, we need urgent unity. But we don't have to focus in these elections. The most important election is in April next year.  All the rest is noise.

But again, I don't think this is just ideological purity, is more than that, despite that the Broad Front doesn't always act accordingly.

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The Broad Front is almost inexistent in many parts of the country, but they are particularly active in southern Santiago, and they are very hostile against local former Concertacion politicians.

Good thing that there are limits to reelections now. And if the FA is so active in southern Santiago surely they could defeat those caciques in a primary. After all, as you said, a lot of independents won in 2016 despite not having party machinery behind them.

And if they won't have primaries for this (which is also in April BTW), you seriously believe that they are going to want unity for the constituent elections? Nah, the will let the right take 45% of the seats with 30% the votes, but hey, maybe they will emerge as the biggest leftist coalition. They are just as power-hungry as the old Concertación.

Regarding the first question, the thing is that the BF is active but by-self is not enough and that is why they have been cooperating with local organizations. By participating in the primary they would have to put aside these alliances and that would be far worse. And many of these independents (from what I know) wouldn't be part of these primaries.

Honestly, I prefer to follow the experiment Podemos did in 2015 (the municipal elections). Every region is different and particularly the ex concertacion has the worst elements in this world.

On the second paragraph, well, we will see. I don't know what we can expect. But I don't share the same opinion on the Broad Front (and I have to say, I didn't vote for Sanchez in 2015, voted Guillier).

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Just voted (in a consulate). One of the happiest moment, this is an unique opportunity.

Turnout apparently is huge. New Zealand was remarkable, around 120 peoplem voted in the 2017 runoff, but today more than 850 people voted there! (798 approving and 57 rejecting a new constitution)

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In 2017 Pinera received 63 voted in Shanghai (84%, 76 votes in total). This year the result was 35 approving a new constitution (42% support, 82 valid votes)

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Best day ever

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One great fact: Bajos de mena is one of the most impoverished parts of Santiago. That neighborhood used to have one of the lowest turnouts in Chile (30% in 2017) but this year jumped to 54% (higher than the national average). Votes went from 5k to 13k. Approved received there 91%. The same happened in La Pintana, PAC, etc. Poor people are hopeful.

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Now I see that Lo Barnechea is similarly close to Las Condes, so maybe is not his influence after all. Do you know why they are significantly closer than, say, Vitacura?.

Not really, I have to say the margin in Vitacura is still surprising. I'd consider it reasonable if Reject was upwards of 30%, but with such an enormous margin it is noteworthy that Vitacura - even with its current profile - would still go Reject that hard.

The main difference between Vitacura and Las Condes/Lo Barnechea is that the former doens't have any poor/middle class neighborhood. In lo Barnechea you have Cerro 18 and the social housing around the Mapocho and in Las Condes you have  middle class neighborhoods in Eastern Colon.

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Can someone walk me through the specific ways in which the Pinochet-penned constitution was deficient? I 100% believe people that it was, but I don't know the details. Is it less democratic than it appears on the surface? Does it somehow encode Chicago Boys neoliberalism or adopt a "negative rights only" approach? Both?

I'm not a lawyer nor expert at all but from what I know most of the issues are related to Article 19 (which encompasses part of constitutional duties and rights). At first sight it seems a normal article that assure rights to the people, but when you start to go deeper, then you understand that the article is pretty ideological. The article is pretty strict in terms of the right to choose. The most important thing in education, healthcare, etc, is the right to choose (and right to supply) and not the right to have. So this has been translated in parts of our daily lives (like education) to be in hands of the market with a weak state because is mandated to. In conclusion, this article is strongly influenced by the "neoliberal' way of thinking of having a subsidiary state.

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Congratulations, Chile 🇨🇱

Can someone walk me through the specific ways in which the Pinochet-penned constitution was deficient? I 100% believe people that it was, but I don't know the details. Is it less democratic than it appears on the surface? Does it somehow encode Chicago Boys neoliberalism or adopt a "negative rights only" approach? Both?

I'm not a lawyer nor expert at all but from what I know most of the issues are related to Article 19 (which encompasses part of constitutional duties and rights). At first sight it seems a normal article that assure rights to the people, but when you start to go deeper, then you understand that the article is pretty ideological. The article is pretty strict in terms of the right to choose. The most important thing in education, healthcare, etc, is the right to choose (and right to supply) and not the right to have. So this has been translated in parts of our daily lives (like education) to be in hands of the market with a weak state because is mandated to. In conclusion, this article is strongly influenced by the "neoliberal' way of thinking of having a subsidiary state.

The Article 19 is quite long and I need to read it carefully, but you notice immediately that the Chilean is pro-life and anti-abortion

https://www.senado.cl/capitulo-iii-de-los-derechos-y-deberes-constitucionales/senado/2012-01-16/093413.html

Artículo 19

La Constitución asegura a todas las personas:
1º.- El derecho a la vida y a la integridad física y psíquica de la persona.
La ley protege la vida del que está por nacer.
La pena de muerte sólo podrá establecerse por delito contemplado en ley aprobada con quórum calificado.
Se prohíbe la aplicación de todo apremio ilegítimo;  

I get that abortion must be criminalized in Chile. Death penalty for a given offence can be implemented by a qualified majority. I ignore the meaning of "apremio ilegitimo"

It was between 1989 and 2017, but now is legal in 3 cases: when the life of the mother is at risk, when the fetus will not survive and in the case of rape (first 12 weeks). If you are interested, there are some articles that analyze why the project was ratified by the Tribunal Constitutional (TC) despite that strong statement. Nevertheless, the TC added the Conscientious objection concept to the law.

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Another fact: Approve won in the US with 62.9%. The only part reject victory was in Miami (it reached 64.6% there). By any means I want to extrapolate but I have a theory that Latinos living in Miami (not only Cubans) are different from the rest. They are more upper class and invest a lot in real estate. Those people are more attracted to Trump and that is why I believe there is a strong possibility of Trump winning Florida despite a national swing to Biden (and a Biden EC victory).

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Another fact: Approve won in the US with 62.9%. The only part reject victory was in Miami (it reached 64.6% there). By any means I want to extrapolate but I have a theory that Latinos living in Miami (not only Cubans) are different from the rest. They are more upper class and invest a lot in real estate. Those people are more attracted to Trump and that is why I believe there is a strong possibility of Trump winning Florida despite a national swing to Biden (and a Biden EC victory).

Source? That's hilarious and believable.

http://www.servelelecciones.cl
Click "En el extranjero", then USA and then you can separate by consulate

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As a citizen registered abroad, I can't vote for convention members unless there is a modification to add representatives from abroad (very unlikely)

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Now the game begins, EMOL published an article with people that have announced their interest in running for the April election or under parties' radar.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2020/10/25/1001647/Candidatos-Convencion-Plebiscito.html

High-profile/interesting names by Party:

PPD: Nicolas Eyzaguirre (former Finance and Education minister) and Carlos Ominami (former Minister and Senator, adoptive father of Marco Enriquez-Ominami)
RN: Magdalena Piñera (Sebastian's daughter) and Paulina Núñez (current congresswoman)
Comunes: Carlos Ruiz (Broad Front's ideological father), Doris Gonzalez (housing activist, leader of Ukamau) and Constanza Valdes (trans activist)
DC: Juan Enrique Pi (Iguales' leader, a LGBT NGO), Patricio Zapata (constitutional lawyer), Carmen Frei (former senator and Eduardo Frei Montalva's daughter)
UDI: Pablo Longueira (former party president), Lucas Palacios (Economy minister) and Lucia Santa Cruz (historian, member of Libertad y Desarrollo)
RD: Alejandra Toledo (trans activist), Amaya Alvez (law professor focused on water rights and Mapuche activist)
PR: Emilio Oñate (law professor and member of the new constitution technical commission)
Evopoli: Gloria Hutt (Transportation minister)
Convergencia Social: Constanza Schonhaut (former Broad Front's spokeswoman) and Ignacio Achurra (actor)
PRI: Juan Jose Santa Cruz (businessman, part of Andres Velasco's presidential campaign)
Liberal Party: Patricio Fernandez (founder of The Clinic, our own Charlie Hebdo)
FRVS: Gonzalo Bacigalupe (psychology researcher, professor at UM-Boston) and Adriana Barrientos (celebrity, about 10 years ago she was our Kim Kardashian or something like that)
PRO: Ruth Olate (domestic workers' leader)

Parties with no name at the moment:

PS, PC, PH and Republicans

People that have shown interest (no party at the moment):

Jorge Baradit (popular writer focused on chilean history), Agustin Squella (constitutional law professor), Maria Olivia Monckeberg (investigative journalist), Patricia Politzer (journalist), Cristobal Bellolio (political scientist) and Enrique Opazo (priest)

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So the election for the constitutional convention and local government will be held on April 2021, election for the president and congress will be held on November 2021 and referendum on the new constitution will be on 2022?

Yep, this is the calendar:
-April 11th, 2021: Constitutional Convention, regional and municipal elections.
-July 3th, 2021: Presidential primaries
-November 21st, 2021: Presidential (first round), CORE (regional counselors) and legislative elections
-December 19th, 2021: Presiential (run-off)
-2022 (unknown exact date): Last constitutional referendum

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Some interesting maps:

Approve/Reject map from Santiago by municipality:





Overcrowding levels in Santiago





Socieconomic groups in Santiago