Chile Constitutional Referendum, October 25th 2020

[PSOL]

So what’s going on with the people in the Communist alliance? Odd that there are things they see eye-to-eye on.

[kaoras]

The Communists have the only leftist presidential candidate that is polling well currently, Daniel Jadue, known for innovative ideas in local government. It seems he would easily win a big opposition primary but generates a lot of resistance among center-left elites and the communist have this nasty tendency of defending Venezuela/Cuba, so I don't think he could actually win.

In other news: The Broad Front has officially rejected primaries with the ex-New Majority parties because they have "conservative and neoliberal elements". Despite that, they are totally fine doing omission pacts when it's convenient for them. Ah... you know, this was so expected that I'm not even mad. I just hope they pay it at the ballot box. At least they are getting crucified in the press and Twitter, so that's fun.

[seb_pard]

The Communists have the only leftist presidential candidate that is polling well currently, Daniel Jadue, known for innovative ideas in local government. It seems he would easily win a big opposition primary but generates a lot of resistance among center-left elites and the communist have this nasty tendency of defending Venezuela/Cuba, so I don't think he could actually win.

In other news: The Broad Front has officially rejected primaries with the ex-New Majority parties because they have "conservative and neoliberal elements". Despite that, they are totally fine doing omission pacts when it's convenient for them. Ah... you know, this was so expected that I'm not even mad. I just hope they pay it at the ballot box. At least they are getting crucified in the press and Twitter, so that's fun.

Although the timing of the press release was the worst, I agree with the Broad Front on this. Why we need to talk about primaries right now? In addition, this agreement excludes the communist and other movements. Why the Christian Democrats have the right to veto the communists while the Broad Front have to renounce potential alliances with other movements/parties? This looks like a move to outplay the Broad Front (and they were outsmarted). I even think this is not the right time to talk about presidential primaries, come on, we are in the middle of a constitutional process.

[kaoras]

The Communists have the only leftist presidential candidate that is polling well currently, Daniel Jadue, known for innovative ideas in local government. It seems he would easily win a big opposition primary but generates a lot of resistance among center-left elites and the communist have this nasty tendency of defending Venezuela/Cuba, so I don't think he could actually win.

In other news: The Broad Front has officially rejected primaries with the ex-New Majority parties because they have "conservative and neoliberal elements". Despite that, they are totally fine doing omission pacts when it's convenient for them. Ah... you know, this was so expected that I'm not even mad. I just hope they pay it at the ballot box. At least they are getting crucified in the press and Twitter, so that's fun.

Although the timing of the press release was the worst, I agree with the Broad Front on this. Why we need to talk about primaries right now? In addition, this agreement excludes the communist and other movements. Why the Christian Democrats have the right to veto the communists while the Broad Front have to renounce potential alliances with other movements/parties? This looks like a move to outplay the Broad Front (and they were outsmarted). I even think this is not the right time to talk about presidential primaries, come on, we are in the middle of a constitutional process.

Eh, because the deadline for primaries is in 2 days? And these are primaries for Municipals and Gubernatorial elections that we are talking about(remember that mayor's is FPTP?)? And the funniest thing is, in the end, the DC didn't even veto the Communist. They agreed to primaries with all the opposition, as did the Communist's coalition yesterday. The FA was literally the only stumbling block.

But I can understand them, the average dirigent of the FA is so rich and privileged that I believe them when they say that the NM and the right are the same. It's poor people that suffer the consequences, not them. Now they will continue to do grandstanding on twitter while allowing the right to continue running this country into the ground

[seb_pard]

But I can understand them, the average dirigent of the FA is so rich and privileged that I believe them when they say that the NM and the right are the same. It's poor people that suffer the consequences, not them. Now they will continue to do grandstanding on twitter while allowing the right to continue running this country into the ground

Well, the most intransigent sectors from the Broad Front aren't the 'rich guys' (like Jackson and Boric) but people like Claudia Mix. Those sectors are particularly resentful against people from the old concertacion.

In addition, I really don't see why you need to have national primaries for regional/municipal elections, as you lose the opportunity to establish alliances with local social movements.

[kaoras]

But I can understand them, the average dirigent of the FA is so rich and privileged that I believe them when they say that the NM and the right are the same. It's poor people that suffer the consequences, not them. Now they will continue to do grandstanding on twitter while allowing the right to continue running this country into the ground

Well, the most intransigent sectors from the Broad Front aren't the 'rich guys' (like Jackson and Boric) but people like Claudia Mix. Those sectors are particularly resentful against people from the old concertacion.

In addition, I really don't see why you need to have national primaries for regional/municipal elections, as you lose the opportunity to establish alliances with local social movements.

Yeah, all the good that is going to do when the right is going to cruise to victory purely on the basis of the division of the left.  Why can't the candidates in the primary establish alliances with the social movements and then face the traditional parties at the ballot box? The reason is clear, the Broad Front, simply does not think it's convenient for them. If this was just purism they wouldn't be open to omission pacts that scream "Old politics"

FA is just putting themselves before national interest. And yes, I'm for unity for unity sake when there are thousands of humans right violations of which only a small fraction is being investigated. Just look at the state of the country for god's sake. If after seeing the last year the Broad Front can't see why it's so important to keep the right out of power then they really are just a bunch of entitled kids.

I would vote for the Christian Democrats a million times before voting for anything slightly related to the Broad Front

[seb_pard]

Other thing, as we see some good mayoral examples (Castro, Jadue, Codina, etc.) we forget how nasty and toxic was mayoral politics in Chile until 2016. There were a worrying number of Concertacion mayors that ruled their communes in a nasty way: Pavez in La Pintana, Puyol in Macul and many other examples. And honestly, the relationship between center-left politicians and narco politics in southern Santiago is very worrying. That is why many independents won in 2016 (La Pintana, Macul, Pedro Aguirre Cerda, etc) but still there are local caudillos ready to return and others are still in power.


The Broad Front is almost inexistent in many parts of the country, but they are particularly active in southern Santiago, and they are very hostile against local former Concertacion politicians.

[seb_pard]

But I can understand them, the average dirigent of the FA is so rich and privileged that I believe them when they say that the NM and the right are the same. It's poor people that suffer the consequences, not them. Now they will continue to do grandstanding on twitter while allowing the right to continue running this country into the ground

Well, the most intransigent sectors from the Broad Front aren't the 'rich guys' (like Jackson and Boric) but people like Claudia Mix. Those sectors are particularly resentful against people from the old concertacion.

In addition, I really don't see why you need to have national primaries for regional/municipal elections, as you lose the opportunity to establish alliances with local social movements.

Yeah, all the good that is going to do when the right is going to cruise to victory purely on the basis of the division of the left.  Why can't the candidates in the primary establish alliances with the social movements and then face the traditional parties at the ballot box? The reason is clear, the Broad Front, simply does not think it's convenient for them. If this was just purism they wouldn't be open to omission pacts that scream "Old politics"

FA is just putting themselves before national interest. And yes, I'm for unity for unity sake when there are thousands of humans right violations of which only a small fraction is being investigated. Just look at the state of the country for god's sake. If after seeing the last year the Broad Front can't see why it's so important to keep the right out of power then they really are just a bunch of entitled kids.

I would vote for the Christian Democrats a million times before voting for anything slightly related to the Broad Front

I agree with you, we need urgent unity. But we don't have to focus in these elections. The most important election is in April next year.  All the rest is noise.

But again, I don't think this is just ideological purity, is more than that, despite that the Broad Front doesn't always act accordingly.

[kaoras]

The Broad Front is almost inexistent in many parts of the country, but they are particularly active in southern Santiago, and they are very hostile against local former Concertacion politicians.

Good thing that there are limits to reelections now. And if the FA is so active in southern Santiago surely they could defeat those caciques in a primary. After all, as you said, a lot of independents won in 2016 despite not having party machinery behind them.

And if they won't have primaries for this (which is also in April BTW), you seriously believe that they are going to want unity for the constituent elections? Nah, the will let the right take 45% of the seats with 30% the votes, but hey, maybe they will emerge as the biggest leftist coalition. They are just as power-hungry as the old Concertación.

[seb_pard]

The Broad Front is almost inexistent in many parts of the country, but they are particularly active in southern Santiago, and they are very hostile against local former Concertacion politicians.

Good thing that there are limits to reelections now. And if the FA is so active in southern Santiago surely they could defeat those caciques in a primary. After all, as you said, a lot of independents won in 2016 despite not having party machinery behind them.

And if they won't have primaries for this (which is also in April BTW), you seriously believe that they are going to want unity for the constituent elections? Nah, the will let the right take 45% of the seats with 30% the votes, but hey, maybe they will emerge as the biggest leftist coalition. They are just as power-hungry as the old Concertación.

Regarding the first question, the thing is that the BF is active but by-self is not enough and that is why they have been cooperating with local organizations. By participating in the primary they would have to put aside these alliances and that would be far worse. And many of these independents (from what I know) wouldn't be part of these primaries.

Honestly, I prefer to follow the experiment Podemos did in 2015 (the municipal elections). Every region is different and particularly the ex concertacion has the worst elements in this world.

On the second paragraph, well, we will see. I don't know what we can expect. But I don't share the same opinion on the Broad Front (and I have to say, I didn't vote for Sanchez in 2015, voted Guillier).

[kaoras]

Spain has a proportional voting system for mayors, it is a totally different situation.

Anyway, is clear we are getting nowhere. But I repeat, The FA is just delusional if they think they will become the largest leftist coalition. Actions like this (along with its refusal to support Guillier in the second turn) will just continue to make people rage-vote the old Concertación parties. They can go "but what about the concertación in San Ramon" all they want, people will just look at what the Right is doing with this country and vote for those who really want to stop that (or be sick of it and vote for whatever populist appears, honestly can't blame them, Bachelet is the only national leftist politician I can say I'm proud to support)

[Lumine]

Not to interrupt too much (mostly trying to give further context), but the way our proportional electoral system is designed - and this, of course, was both fully intentional and a hilarious mistake of Nueva Mayoria in hindsight - leads to over-representation of whoever has the plurality, particularly if the other lists split the vote too much; which, as we all know, is combined with a new system which will reward the plurality for the gubernatorial elections, and which already hands over the mayoral election via FPTP.

There's certainly ideological merit in wanting to chart a specific course and wanting to avoid the Nueva Mayoria mistake of lacking an actual consensual blueprint for government, but going to a non-stop electoral process (in which all the current elected positions will be up for grabs in the course of a single year) splintered in several different lists - some of them littered with splinter parties or, at times, vanity projects - is only going to ensure overrepresentation of Chile Vamos, as it was pointed out.

If the Chilean left persists on competing separatedly they're only going to ensure that an increasing number of factors go against them, including: A. losing seats due to how the electoral system works, particularly at the constituent organism, B. losing perfectly winnable races for governor and mayor, C. having long-term trouble at coalescing their base at the second round of the presidential, which is exactly what happened in 2009 and 2017, and that's just to name a few.

I'm certainly pleased with this development and I get that a truly "unity" bloc is probably both unmanageable because of personal disputes - and I do think they're more personal than ideological in the end -, but if that mentality is allowed to at the same time sink the prospect of electoral unity, common primaries and the like, then the left will only make it easier for them to lose elections which, given the present context, should be winning easily due to significant advantages. Plus the time to do it is now, before events and deadlines take over and then they find it much more difficult to coordinate.

[H. Ross Peron]

Since this seems to be main Chile thread, could anyone explain about the ideologies and support bases of the Christian Democrats as well as some of the smaller centre-left parties such as PPD and the Radicals?

Also is Gremialism similar to distributism in terms of decentralizing power?

[kaoras]

Since this seems to be main Chile thread, could anyone explain about the ideologies and support bases of the Christian Democrats as well as some of the smaller centre-left parties such as PPD and the Radicals?

Also is Gremialism similar to distributism in terms of decentralizing power?

PPD was born as an instrumental party for the left at the end of the dictatorship since the traditional leftist parties (Socialists and Communists) were banned or coopted (In the case of the PS gets really weird). The communists mainly went to another party called PAIS which later dissolved, but the socialist mainly went to the PPD. However, after the Socialist Party was reinstated, the PPD continued as a "broad" home for all sorts of progressives, including social liberal, social democrats, third wayish technocrats, etc. (Fun fact, my grandmother is a member of the party because she was deceived into signing to supposedly restore the socialist party, she has never voted for them, always PS) It was basically a catch-all party for the progressive left inside the center-left alliance, the Concertación.

PPD was usually part of the progressive wing of the Concertación and developed its own "identity". Its support base was mainly mainstream center-left voters and for a long time it was bigger than the PS, but given its instrumental origin, is a party mainly composed of government bureaucrats, doesn't have the long history and traditions of the PS, so its voter base was a lot softer. The rise of the alternative left severely damaged it and has been in steady decline. It lost voters in 2013 despite a center-left landslide and was crushed in 2017 due to the rise of the Broad Front.

The Radical Party is very old party. It was one of the biggest parties of Chile in the XX century and was infamous for its policy of "pendular center" swinging between alliances with the left and the right. They were eventually replaced by the Christian Democrats as the main centrist party in the '60s, joined Allende's Popular Unity, and were banned with the coup in 1973. The Party was restored with the return to democracy. They were always the smallest part of the center-left coalition, Concertación, but its positioning was a mess. They swung wildly from being in the centrist wing to the progressive wing and so on. I have absolutely no idea who the hell votes for the radicals, given that their best times were arguably the '40s I doubt they have much of a historic partisan vote left but have remained relatively stable in its vote share. 

The Christian Democrats would need a lot more effort to explain its history. Maybe I could give it a try later (or someone else), but its voter base nowadays is mostly party loyalist, and what is left of "moderate and centrist" voters (auto identified centrist are a very small fraction of the electorate). They have been in a steady and unstoppable decline since the '90s, falling from 30% to 10% of the vote. They have two wings: a leftist one which is basically indistinguishable from the mainstream center-left and another conservative one, which is usually the one who dominates the party. This wing is more socially conservative (but not to the extent of the right) and very economically, eh, let's say "technocratic". Very hesitant to structural reforms pushed by the left. The problem of Christian Democrats is that they please absolutely no one. They are despised by the left because of its resistance to reforms and left-wing policy, they are despised by the right because in the end they always align the with left one way or another and moderate voters don't find them credible (also moderate voters tend to be socially liberal so they also dislike that).

I don't know much about Gremialism nor Distributism, but Gremialism is about giving reducing the power of State, saying it should not intervene where there are "intermediate bodies" who could do the job. Those bodies should be totally depoliticized.

[kaoras]

So, Chile Vamos decided that they also wanted to have a crisis over the legal primaries. The fight is over extremely petty things like doing or not primaries in Vitacura (one of the richest municipalities of Chile and Titanium Right). RN mayor is term-limited and the party wants to keep it. There also some other problems here and there. EVOPOLI came out with hilariously inflammatory rhetoric accusing the other parties of risking the continuity of the coalition with their anti-democratic tendencies and saying that if they remain unwilling to compete they are ready to run a separate list for governors, mayors, and councils (Jajaja, yeah, like THAT'S going to happen)

The opposition side remains more entertaining though. After all the backlash, the Broad Front u-turned and said that they were open to primaries with several conditions. The other parties reacted by basically saying that they shouldn't put conditions and that those conditions were already met anyway (the main point is that FA has a blacklist of mayors they don't want to support in the case they win a primary because of corruption accusations, though in some cases there is no proof of those accusations; Other parties say that people should decide by voting). Also a lot of drama between the DC and the FA. Anyway, in the end, the rumour is that there will be a unity pact for gubernatorial elections but not for mayors, and they will continue with negotiations by omission pacts/polls/"conventional primaries" (organized by the parties and not by the electoral service).

Well, a pact for governors is actually more than I expected so I will take it. (If it DOES happen, the chilean left never fails to disappoint)

[Lumine]

Chile Vamos managed to close a deal at almost the last minute, there will be primaries in most - virtually all - of the municipalities in dispute.

The opposition talks collapsed, so there won't be broad primaries even for the gubernatorial elections, but it's unclear how bad it is (whether at least Unidad para el Cambio will be joining the ex-Nueva Mayoria or whether it's a complete collapse).

[kaoras]

Is total collapse, only Broad Front will do primaries and alone.

Well, can't say I'm surprised. The Chilean Left deserves everything it gets.

[Lumine]

Apparently it's worse than expected, quite a conflict of spin as representatives from different opposition parties accuse each other (by alleging what should be mutually incompatible vetoes) of blocking a deal or not wanting primaries in the first place. Particular anger placed against the Frente Amplio for being the first to formalize their separate list, leading to accussations that they left the table first (in turn, some of their representatives attack Convergencia Progresista as being the one who left the table).

I think there's a few hours left, so it will be interesting to see how many opposition lists will be in the end. If it ends up being at least three (or even four) the opposition is likely to lose a number of competitive races.

[kaoras]

Progressive Convergence, DC, PRO (Ominami), and Ciudadanos are going to primaries for governors. They claim that the deadline is actually at midnight. Don't know if this stunt will fly.

But if it does I don't know of what I'm more surprised: that in a quest for unity they ended up breaking the Communist's coalition (PRO belongs to that) or that Ciudadanos still exist.

EDIT: Those madmen did it, is called Unidad Constituyente (Constituent Unity). _{They should have gone for Unidad Progresista (UP), those cowards /s}

[Estrella]

*record scratch* *freeze frame* You're probably wondering how I got here.

Today in history, we go back to... er, last year. On October 1, 2019, Ministry of Transport announced a tariff hike on Santiago Metro. It was ostensibly a banal, if unpopular measure but it was the match that set fire to the protests, small at first, then bigger and bigger and... anyway, here we are.

[kaoras]

Fun fact: I traveled to Santiago and arrived on October 18th! for a sports competition that was going to happen the next day. My hotel was not far off from Plaza Baquedano (the epicenter of the protests).

The evasion incidents in the metro system -station closures included- were happening all over that week and I was prepared for such eventuality. Still, when everything exploded me and my team were shopping at Costanera Center. We had to travel on foot from there to the hotel, evading riots, tear gas, barricades, etc... When we got near to Plaza Baquedano, Carabineros was shooting pellet guns and tear gas at everything that moved so we had to get the ** out of there and take several deviations, and everywhere there were protests, barricades, riots... People said that those were the biggest protest they had seen in their lifetimes. After 5 hours we arrived at the hotel (normally it would take 1-hour walking).

We arrived just in time for the state of emergency being declared and right after the announcement, the protest and cacerolazos increased. I remember that you could hear the people protesting in plaza Baquedano from my hotel. Then a huge number of trucks and vehicles from the military, Fuerzas Especiales de Carabineros, and PDI passed by the street towards the plaza and the sound of the protest slowly went "quiet" (as quiet as it could be, half of the city was burning).

The sports competition obviously was canceled and we ended up stuck in Santiago for 3 days because we couldn't get out of there by bus. On October 19th in the morning, the city tried to go back to business as usual but by midday, all public transport shut down and riots continued. I swear, every time Piñera or one of their ministers opened their mouths, the protests grew. I think every store near our hotel got looted. And above the hotel, there were helicopters flying with soldiers with rifles. We managed to leave the city on a flight eventually, but on the way to the airport, you could saw all the military trucks in every corner and the leftovers from the barricades. It was like a time travel to the dictatorship.

After that, it was a wild month. The first week I attended protests in my city twice a day. Piñera was only useful in adding more logs to the fire and the protests only started to wind down after the accord for the new constitution.

[kaoras]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/03/chilean-police-throw-boy-16-off-bridge-during-protests?fbclid=IwAR0npc0lx7IsBb32T98-yHHQ9ZKpIFPK0wF7UaVH_kOK9dernRW9IfmkRWA

Another isolated case of human rights violations and brutality from Carabineros, n° er.... 8575 (actual number of human rights denounces). And since last year only 16 Carabineros have been stood down. Meanwhile, the left will continue with its petty division and let the government continue protecting those murderers. 

[Samof94]

It's also pretty funny to see Evópoli, a party I'd expect to be full of muh liberal anti-populist technocracy types literally start their ads with "la política es una mierda" lol.

But then my expectations were probably wrong. I'm increasingly confused by the structure of Chilean right - I always assumed that there are starker differences between the two main parties. I thought that RN is a "standard Western conservative party", if quite a bit more right-wing than usual, and UDI is a weird combination of semi-open Pinochetistas and "hello fellow working class weones" people - to use an extremely silly comparision, RN = Romney and UDI = Trump.

Could you explain what are the dividing lines between them?

Most people in Chile think the same way as you, but in reality the differences are not as clear and both parties are the result of a long process (the transition)

Pinochet was very succesful (just as Franco) in united the right, which wasn't at all  a monolithic block. Most of the right merged into a party called PARENA (National Renewal Party, the old RN), of which Ricardo Rivadeneira assumed as president, while Jaime Guzman (from the UDI), Andres Allamand (from the National Party) and Juan de Dios Carmona (the nationalist) assumed as vicepresidents. Before PARENA the UDI already existed as a gremialist movement.

In 1987 a dispute inside the party ocurred and the UDI split it from PARENA (this is an interesting event because from what I heard a brawl ocurred in which chairs were throwed).

The UDI kept its position as the gremialist party (which is an interesting ideology that I strongly despise) but accepted other elements (for example, Evelyn Matthei was member of RN but due to the Piñeragate she left the party and joined the UDI).

Well, PARENA became RN, which is basically a party that contained different right-of-center ideologies (think for example Carlos Larrain, which is more conservative than the average UDI, but also has people like Marcela Sabat). I would say that the party depends more on local leaders, who can be more or less conservative than the average UDI.

Pinochet modeled himself after Franco and was at his funeral.

[Estrella]

To add to Kaoras' explanation of the chaos with alliances, here's a graphic from Radio Bío Bío:

[Former President tack50]

Why is the Chilean left so split?