Chile Constitutional Referendum, October 25th 2020

[Lumine]

Really curious as to the eventual turnout now. Perhaps 55-60%?

[Estrella]

I guess it's too late to jinx it now, so...

Bye-bye, Pinochet!

[skbl17]

Piñera is speaking now.

Vote on a new constitution:

27.5% of the overall vote counted:

- Approve: 77.6% (1,475,548 votes)
- Reject: 22.4% (425,962)

(12,362/44,913 booths counted)

---

Convention mechanism:

4.9% of the official vote counted:

- Constitutional Convention: 78.83% (222,035 votes)
- Mixed Constitutional Convention: 21.17% (59,620)

(2,213/44,913 booths counted)

[kaoras]

Piñera is speaking now.

Of course he is taking credit for the plebiscite and the triumph of Approve. He should have campaigned for it, maybe that would have kept Approve under 70%. Just shut up already!

[kaoras]

Ironically Lavín is going to be greatly strengthened by this. Las Condes is way closer than it should be considering how right-wing it is.

[Lumine]

Ironically Lavín is going to be greatly strengthened by this. Las Condes is way closer than it should be considering how right-wing it is.

It is certainly likely to be a vindication of sorts for his strategy in the eyes of Chile Vamos, and will probably strengthen those who also stood by Approve to a lesser degree. He'll always be vulnerable in a primary, but I have to think - and hope - that such a resounding defeat will showcase the folly of repeating the tone and content (if we can call it content) of the Reject campaign in the upcoming electoral contests.

[skbl17]

I'm seeing a lot of hot takes on Twitter; "Chavismo, here we come", "neoliberalism has lost", and so on. Uh, both the victors and the whiners realize that this was only a vote to start the process of drafting a new constitution, right? The delegates to the constitutional convention still have to be elected.

Vote on a new constitution:

53.95% of the overall vote counted:

- Approve: 77.9% (3,006,953 votes)
- Reject: 22.1% (853,199)

(24,235/44,913 booths counted)

---

Convention mechanism:

24.82% of the official vote counted:

- Constitutional Convention: 78.98% (1,254,856 votes)
- Mixed Constitutional Convention: 21.02% (333,992)

(11,149/44,913 booths counted)

Really curious as to the eventual turnout now. Perhaps 55-60%?

As things stand, we have 3.882 million votes counted with 54% of the booths in. I'm not sure about how turnout evolves as the remaining votes come in, but even if I multiply the number of counted votes by 2, that leaves a turnout of 52.2% (14.855 million registered voters). I think that's likely on the higher side of things.

[kaoras]

Ironically Lavín is going to be greatly strengthened by this. Las Condes is way closer than it should be considering how right-wing it is.

It is certainly likely to be a vindication of sorts for his strategy in the eyes of Chile Vamos, and will probably strengthen those who also stood by Approve to a lesser degree. He'll always be vulnerable in a primary, but I have to think - and hope - that such a resounding defeat will showcase the folly of repeating the tone and content (if we can call it content) of the Reject campaign in the upcoming electoral contests.

Now I see that Lo Barnechea is similarly close to Las Condes, so maybe is not his influence after all. Do you know why they are significantly closer than, say, Vitacura?.

[Lumine]

Now I see that Lo Barnechea is similarly close to Las Condes, so maybe is not his influence after all. Do you know why they are significantly closer than, say, Vitacura?.

Not really, I have to say the margin in Vitacura is still surprising. I'd consider it reasonable if Reject was upwards of 30%, but with such an enormous margin it is noteworthy that Vitacura - even with its current profile - would still go Reject that hard.

[skbl17]

Vote on a new constitution:

76.53% of the overall vote counted:

- Approve: 78.12% (4,378,474 votes) - SERVEL declares projected winner
- Reject: 21.88% (1,226,548)

(34,376/44,913 booths counted)

---

Convention mechanism:

54.76% of the official vote counted:

- Constitutional Convention: 79.1% (2,921,152 votes)
- Mixed Constitutional Convention: 20.9% (771,658)

(24,595/44,913 booths counted)

[kaoras]

Also, the good old geographic pattern that we are all used to is back. North above average for Approve, South below. Though Approve clearly is not a vote for the left, the map still resembles what you would expect if you added half of the vote of the right to the traditional left strength. So might as well do some #analysis.

Some things to note:
-Approve being higher in Tarapacá than in Arica is... surprising (only 1% but still). Arica was 8! points more leftist in 2009 and 2017.
-Atacama being the highest % for Approve in the country is great to see after swinging real hard for Piñera.
-O'Higgins similarly is "back", but Maule is not... hm...
-Bio Bio being "only" 73% for Approve despite being stripped of Ñuble (70% Approve) probably means that its trend away from "the left" is permanent. Arauco coal basin is below average for Approve and Concepción metro is fairly disappointing. Somewhat countered by Valparaiso swing in the opposite direction.
-Los Rios and Los Lagos continue their extremely slow trend for "the left".
-Aysen is back to where you normally would expect it to be. It seems that they just really hated Piñera lol.

This is all assuming that Corona had no effect whatsoever, of course.

[skbl17]

And that's it: Approve and Constitutional Convention are officially projected winners. In reality, this was over a while ago, but I wanted to wait for the Electoral Service to make the call.

Vote on a new constitution:

86.95% of the overall vote counted:

- Approve: 78.2% (5,043,195 votes) - SERVEL declares projected winner
- Reject: 21.8% (1,405,905)

(39,055/44,913 booths counted)

---

Convention mechanism:

72.65% of the official vote counted:

- Constitutional Convention: 79.24% (3,976,159 votes) - SERVEL declares projected winner
- Mixed Constitutional Convention: 20.76% (1,041,721)

(32,633/44,913 booths counted)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently Antarctica voted 21-10 for Reject? What’s going on down there?

[kaoras]

Apparently Antarctica voted 21-10 for Reject? What’s going on down there?

Those are the votes of Villa Las Estrellas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Villa_Las_Estrellas). Is basically military officers + their families.

[kaoras]

Also, high participation seems to have been a mirage caused by COVID measures. I think is going to be barely around 50%. Of course, the pandemic situation affects it, but Chile really needs some other options for voting. In-person early voting at the very least.

[Lumine]

Early voting might be a decent idea, though I rather hope we never go into electronic voting. Aside from not finding it reliable in the least, there's a certain charm in the process being both so transparent and also quick to deliver results.

[H. Ross Peron]

Good week for the Latin American left.

[skbl17]

Counting's almost done. I think turnout will end at 51%; it currently stands at 49.88%.

Vote on a new constitution:

98.05% of the overall vote counted:

- Approve: 78.27% (5,768,550 votes) - SERVEL declares projected winner
- Reject: 21.73% (1,601,182)

(44,039/44,913 booths counted)

---

Convention mechanism:

95.25% of the official vote counted:

- Constitutional Convention: 79.1% (5,361,748 votes) - SERVEL declares projected winner
- Mixed Constitutional Convention: 20.9% (1,416,667)

(42,781/44,913 booths counted)

Tonight was a good night for those who wanted to toss out the 1980 constitution, but attention now turns to April 11, the day of the municipal and gubernatorial elections, because that's the day voters will elect delegates to the convention that will actually draft the new document.

[seb_pard]

Best day ever

[seb_pard]

One great fact: Bajos de mena is one of the most impoverished parts of Santiago. That neighborhood used to have one of the lowest turnouts in Chile (30% in 2017) but this year jumped to 54% (higher than the national average). Votes went from 5k to 13k. Approved received there 91%. The same happened in La Pintana, PAC, etc. Poor people are hopeful.

[seb_pard]

Now I see that Lo Barnechea is similarly close to Las Condes, so maybe is not his influence after all. Do you know why they are significantly closer than, say, Vitacura?.

Not really, I have to say the margin in Vitacura is still surprising. I'd consider it reasonable if Reject was upwards of 30%, but with such an enormous margin it is noteworthy that Vitacura - even with its current profile - would still go Reject that hard.

The main difference between Vitacura and Las Condes/Lo Barnechea is that the former doens't have any poor/middle class neighborhood. In lo Barnechea you have Cerro 18 and the social housing around the Mapocho and in Las Condes you have  middle class neighborhoods in Eastern Colon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good week for the Latin American left.

Indeed. This is excellent news, even if not particularly surprising. Time to wipe out Pinochet's legacy once and for all.

Of course, the key will be electing a left-wing majority to the constituent assembly. What are the chances of that at the moment? And for that matter, what electoral system will be used to elect it? I'd hope it's a more genuinely proportional one than the one Chile uses to elect its regular parliament.

[Red Velvet]

If I had to bet, it’s likely the new Chilean constitution will be more similar to the 1983 Argentina one or the 1988 Brazil one, both created after the end of their respective military dictatorships. The background similarity could stimulate them to look at these, since the public demand seems to be about getting rid of dictatorship inheritance, giving people more rights and stimulating a bigger presence of the state in providing them. It’s exactly what Argentina and Brazil did after the dictatorship ended in those places.

Chile dictatorship was much more bloodier, savage and traumatic though. So much that Pinochet became THE absolute world reference to the idea of Latin American military dictatorships during Cold War. Long term effects shaped Chile. So much that they spent 30 years living under that Pinochet created model. I’m not completely sure of what to expect from them exactly.

But it could be possibly even more progressive than those two, considering it’s more than 30 years later and some social mindsets have changed. Bolivia for example had a new constitution recently I think (2009 or so) and they’re one of the five countries in the world that specifically gives constitutional rights to people REGARDLESS of their sexual orientation and gender identity. Small details to have that stuff named but you get the point.

[skbl17]

Good week for the Latin American left.

Indeed. This is excellent news, even if not particularly surprising. Time to wipe out Pinochet's legacy once and for all.

Of course, the key will be electing a left-wing majority to the constituent assembly. What are the chances of that at the moment? And for that matter, what electoral system will be used to elect it? I'd hope it's a more genuinely proportional one than the one Chile uses to elect its regular parliament.

I'm not a Spanish speaker, but my cursory reading of the constituent assembly election page on the Spanish Wikipedia indicates that the electoral system will be the same as the one used to elect the Chamber of Deputies, Chile's lower house of parliament:

De acuerdo al proyecto presentado por la mesa técnica el 6 de diciembre de 2019, y ratificado mediante la reforma constitucional publicada en el Diario Oficial el 24 de diciembre, en el caso de que triunfe la opción "Apruebo" en el plebiscito de octubre de 2020 y la opción ganadora en la segunda papeleta es la opción de la "Convención Constitucional" (con la totalidad de sus miembros elegidos para esta ocasión), en las elecciones de convencionales constituyentes de octubre se elegirán 155 miembros bajo las mismas reglas, distritos y cantidad de escaños que en las elecciones para la Cámara de Diputados. En el caso de que la opción triunfadora hubiese sido la de la "Convención Mixta Constitucional" (compuesta por parlamentarios en ejercicio y ciudadanos elegidos en octubre), y que resultó derrotada, esta iba a estar compuesta por 172 miembros: 86 parlamentarios elegidos por el Congreso Pleno, y 86 ciudadanos elegidos mediante las elecciones que se realizarían, con modificaciones en la cantidad de escaños asignados para cada distrito.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Can someone walk me through the specific ways in which the Pinochet-penned constitution was deficient? I 100% believe people that it was, but I don't know the details. Is it less democratic than it appears on the surface? Does it somehow encode Chicago Boys neoliberalism or adopt a "negative rights only" approach? Both?