Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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Vibes of Baghdad, 2003. Definitely a sign that Russia is on the march, folks!

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561057400009916418

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-Is-Quietly-Reselling-Its-Excess-Russian-LNG-To-Europe.html

"China Is Quietly Reselling Its Excess Russian LNG To Europe"

PRC getting in on the Russian gas resale to the EU markup game.

Translation: China is being two-faced while robbing Russia blind.

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This line of logic does not make sense to me.  First, if India has gotten to a point where it will lie on behalf of Russia then that has to be very scary news for the collective West since that would mean that India can be viewed as aligned with the PRC-Russia Euroasian super bloc which I doubt is true.

Secondly, India has options.  If Russia exposes India that it is much weaker than it claims then why would India even want to align itself with a corpse?  Even if India hates the collective West so much that even in such circumstances it will align with Russia, now by knowing Russia's weakness India could now demand concessions from Russia given its leverage over Russia.  One way or another it makes no sense for Russia to expose itself to India blackmail like that.

Given the extent to which western intelligence agencies have infiltrated Russia and bragged about it, they don't need India or anyone else to spy for them to determine the true size of these exercises. In fact, British intelligence flat out dismissed these exercises as just Kabuki theatre.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1565574017997832197

As is well known, India has pursued a stance of non-alignment since independence, and to mistake this for alliance with any other power is simply foolish. At the same time that India is buying Russian oil by the tankerload, it's also working quietly to replace its dependence on Russian military hardware. One generates short-term profit to Russia, while the other is a long-term threat to Russia's last remaining globally-competitive manufacturing sector.

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But why do they need to print ballots and hold voting, if they want to stage a referendum? They can just get a few dozen actors to vote in front of the TV camera, and the shooting could take place in Moscow for all they care.

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https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567895144078123011?t=626O_SSQRS_KgYpa7yi...

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Meanwhile, in Moscow...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1568569887605362688

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1568633440110628865

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Ukrainian thunder run on Moscow when?

Broke: Putin conquers Ukraine and creates a new Russian Empire.

Woke: Zelensky conquers Moscow and creates a new Kievan Rus'.

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How would the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would look like ? Huge reparations ? Or maybe annexing some russian territories?

Status quo ante bellum at best. Russia will never pay reparations and annexing Russian territory... I mean, come one. That's not even remotely realistic (and would not be justified by international law either).

Over half of Russia's foreign reserves were held in western countries and were frozen in March. The western powers could hold these until Russia agrees to forward a large portion of them to fund reparations. But, more important is that any Ukrainian - adult or child - who was deported into Russia must be returned home. It's better that every Ukrainian is returned home, and Ukraine doesn't get a penny in reparations, than if Russia hands over its entire $600 billion+ reserves, but the Ukrainians aren't returned home.

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As if losing its status as a world superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact wasn't enough, Russia is done as a Great Power too -its unmitigated failure in Ukraine has merely sealed the deal:

The Russian Army Is Losing A Battalion Every Day As Ukrainian Counterattacks Accelerate

China can’t also be happy about this. Both big world evils show their militaries are not on par with the US.

China might not be unhappy. If Russia is weakened enough, then Russia is minted as a Chinese client state.
A weakened Russia would be good for the world. But be careful what you wish for.

Oh, no, Xi Jinping must be the most nervous (about this war) person in the world outside Russia. He definitely feels terrified, terrified, terrified, about what has happened in Ukraine.

Putin had spent hundreds of billions of $, and over a decade, in rebuilding the Russian army, and he genuinely came to believe it was mighty enough to take Kyiv in three days. Now we know that the Russian military had been completely lying to him for so long. Given that's the case, if I was Xi Jinping, how would I know that my own military hasn't also been lying to me in a similar way? An army that is able to lie about its capabilities to the leader is also able to lie about its true political leanings. And if that's the case, how secure would I feel about my own power? Not at all. I wonder how much Xi Jinping's blood pressure has risen as a result of the Ukraine disaster.

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I wonder how Putin will enjoy his new role as a subordinate of Xi.

He won't. At this rate, the Russian army will cease to exist, and Russia as a centralized nation will fall apart into a collection of warring fiefdoms. Maybe Putin will still remain in the Kremlin, but as little more than a Grand Duke of Muscovy. All the foreign powers would be vultures picking apart the Russian carcass, and supporting one warlord over the other. Ironically, that would resemble Qing Dynasty China after its loss to Japan in 1895.

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Ok, you have a point regarding Xi Jinping's worries. It would be true that there would be domestic concerns to worry about.
Nonetheless, he would still likely be somewhat happy seeing Russia positioned to become a Chinese puppet/client/vassal/whatever you call it.

For rulers of large, continent-sized landmasses - let them be China, Russia, the USA, or India, domestic considerations are always dominant, and will always override any foreign plans the leaders might have. And that holds true whether the nation is a democracy or a dictatorship. That's why, for instance, Joe Biden made the decision to throw Afghanistan to the Taliban and focus on passing his infrastructure bills.

Xi Jinping in such a scenario will have to thoroughly shake up the military leadership, and put any plans he might have about Taiwan on hold until he feels secure enough (which might be never). If he makes the wrong moves here, he will be deposed in a palace coup, and would be lucky to not be secretly executed. At best, China will become one of several vultures fighting over the Russian carcass, but such a Russia would serve primarily as a warning to the leadership in Beijing on how things can go wrong.

To give a little history tidbit, the CCP was shaken to the core as it watched the Soviet Union collapse in two years. The CCP then used the chaos of Yeltsin's Russia as a domestic propaganda tool: "if the CCP fails, China will become as chaotic as Russia". A second collapse of Russia will cause a lot of emotions to be felt in China, but "yippee! Now we can have Russia's vast resources to ourselves!" will be the very last one to be felt.

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It seems that there is an optimal zone here for Xi.
Russia weakened is good, Russia weakened too much is not as useful for China.
There's a sweet spot where Russia does poorly enough that it has to submit to China, but not so poorly that its internal stability is not ever threatened.

This assumes that somehow Beijing is so powerful that it could decide facts on the ground in Moscow - an incredibly arrogant assumption. If Russia collapses into a failed state, it will do so regardless of the desires of any external actor.

The war in Ukraine is already a disaster for Russia, and we're now witnessing the collapse of the Russian army in real time. More than that, we're witnessing the death rattle of the image we've had of a glorious and fearless Russia. This is already raising doubts in Xi's head about whether he has been lied to by his own army - and all that implies. It has also made a mockery of CCP propaganda that western democracies are too weak to confront autocracies. China's elite are also shocked by the speed and scale to which the western powers snatched away the luxuries previously enjoyed by the Russian elite. Note that, I'm referring to the past and present - events that have already happened and are happening. The Ukraine disaster won't by itself cause a crisis within the CCP, but it will certainly raise the sense of unease and tension that has been building up in the CCP halls of power. The last thing anyone will think of, is somehow micromanaging Russia's internal politics - which historically has had a 100% failure rate for foreign powers.

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Not sure where the argument of the Russian state collapsing a ala 1991 Soviet Union comes from. With the exception of Chechnya there’s virtually nowhere that has any practical autonomy or a private power base to launch independence from. And whilst there’s a non-zero chance if Putin gets deposed and his successor sues for peace that Chechnya might do a UDI - I can’t see anyone else who could/would follow suit.

The Russian state likely won't suddenly collapse into ethnically-based nation states as in 1991, for reasons you mentioned. More likely is that the gradual weakening of Moscow's ability to control the regions - as well as its loss of credibility on the battlefield - will lead to regional leaders gradually asserting more power themselves out of necessity. And that will, over time, lead to a de facto breakup of the Russian Federation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzCoJXxb5xI&t

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https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1569260715420024835

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How many districts do the two cities have? I am looking for the denominator to 18.

Both cities are divided into districts, and in turn sub-districts, though the names of these two levels are different.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_divisions_of_Moscow

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_divisions_of_Saint_Petersburg

It's notable that the first local council in St. Petersburg that accused Putin of treason is in the very heart of the city, that contains its most important historical attractions. The first local council in Moscow that called for Putin to step aside is in the city's southwest, the location of its most prestigious universities and research institutes.

This indicates that, so far, it's urban intellectuals and liberals who are spearheading the emerging anti-Putin movement.

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If there's already this much controversy about those who worked under Russian occupation for six months, then I don't know how the two Donbass republics or the Crimea could be governable after the return of Ukrainian rule. The Kyiv government will have to skillfully determine what level of collaboration would be acceptable, and what would warrant prosecution. Otherwise, you'll have lots of angry people in a country that's still awash with modern weapons.

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Honestly I find this story strange and not really believable.  

You don't advertise the fact you are in the middle of negotiations for the enemy to surrender, allowing their senior officers time to restore order.

This briefing seems like mind games to me.

Methinks that maybe a few Russian units have either surrendered or are in the process of surrendering due to a sheer lack of food and ammo, but Ukrainian propaganda are purposefully exaggerating this news to bring about a full-scale collapse.

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100% agreed. The fact Hans Globke was able to hold high office in West Germany well in to the 60s despite his involvement in the Nuremberg laws is a stain on Germany *and* the allies. The Nazis should have been torn out root & stem, same should happen with Putin and his acolytes. The fact some are merely civil servants getting on with their jobs (“only following orders”) is irrelevant. The Ukrainians have learnt by now the dangers of the alternative.

The line between those who merely worked under the Russians, and those who worked with the Russians, will not be clear cut.

Suppose say Ivan worked as the manager of the power grid in Donetsk City. In normal times, he did perfectly normal things to keep the lights on. But, the Russians came and demanded that he allocate more power to their bases. Then, the Russians invite Ivan to attend an electric engineering course in a Russian university, where he met plenty of Russian "minders". Upon his return, he continues his job. He was also required to attend parades glorifying the pro-Russian puppet government. 2022 comes along, and Ivan is tasked with quickly repairing the power grid after each Ukrainian strike. This, of course, has the effect of allowing the Russian army to continue operating with minimal disruption.

Was Ivan complicit with the Russians, or was he just doing his job to keep the lights on?

As for the reference to ex-Nazis gaining power in West Germany, Germany faced a similar question when it was reunified in 1990. Granted, East Germany was magnitudes less evil than Hitler, but the dilemma still remained. Most East German civil servants were allowed to keep their jobs, and the more problematic ones (e.g. Party ideologists) were given early retirement pensions. Of course, the ones who unambiguously committed crimes, like soldiers who shot at those fleeing across the Berlin Wall, still faced criminal trials - on the grounds that they should have understood that their orders were against fundamental human rights.

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Hmm, another Time of Troubles, with oligarch-warlords?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1569428022532481025

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This smells fishy, if only because a state trading it's monopoly on force for uncertain prospects has totally never backfired before and ruined everything. That path is too well tread and to well understood by historians and politicians alike for Russia to make the same mistake she is exploiting in some African countries....right?

Putin has been viewing the oligarchs as merely his fund managers, and not (as under Yeltsin) as figures who could influence him. So, if he can no longer trust the army to deliver his desired outcome, he might call on his fund managers to finish the job. He's also smart enough to ensure that, of course, the really best troops in Russia are reserved to protect himself. From that perspective, that might buy him just another roll of the dice.

But, it's obvious where this is all heading. I'm looking forward to the Bald and Bankrupt videos. "Oooh, a truly authentic Soviet checkpoint, staffed by Roman Abramovich's men!"

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Part 2 begins...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1570812168651821057

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Ukrainian philosophical propaganda

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Well, according to a few posts from someone upthread (apologies for not remembering offhand who posted them), desertion will be met by death by firing squad.

Better bet for the convicts to surrender to Ukrainian forces, where they will likely eventually end up being exchanged back to Russia as part of a POW swap and then will end up as free men.

Better a live coward than a dead hero is an old phrase but relevant.

The Russians have brought in Kadyrov's people as second-line barrier troops for that reason. Also, Putin can order reprisals against families of deserters. It's better to give your family a Lada than a trip to Siberia.

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https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194

It's Russian mobilization.

It seems like a pretty dumb decision by EU countries to deny Russian citizes visas right now.

Why would EU countries want a bunch of 5th columnists? They are only fleeing because the war is about to come to them, not because they weren't in favour of the war.

The non-crazies mostly left Russia already.

The idea that everyone opposed to war already left Russia and anyone who would like to leave now must be a fifth columnist is really something.

Anti-war Russians don't have to flee to the EU. The most popular destinations are Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. If the EU won't allow their entry, that is still their right.

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Balakliia #2