UK Election 2010

[Ben.]

Not sure if its the right thread but Quentin Davies (CON:Grantham and Stamford), defected to Labour today... perhaps (bar his position as a Tory europhile) one of the more unlikley parliamentary defections, still not very helpful for Cameron. 

[Ben.]

Past August Average Polls (compared to GE result)
August 1987: Con 46.5% Lab 36% Lib Dem 16% Oth 2%
August 1988: Con 47.5% Lab 37.5% Lib Dem 12.5% Oth 4%
August 1989: Con 37% Lab 44% Lib Dem 9.5% Oth 9.5%
August 1990: Con 35.75% Lab 49% Lib Dem 10.25% Oth 5.5%
August 1991: Con 39% Lab 42% Lib Dem 15.5% Oth 4%
1992: Con 42% Lab 34% Lib Dem 18% Oth 6%
August 1992: Con 39.5% Lab 44% Lib Dem 13.5% Oth 3%
August 1993: Con 29% Lab 39% Lib Dem 26% Oth 6%
August 1994: Con 25.5% Lab 52.25% Lib Dem 18% Oth 3.75%
August 1995: Con 27.5% Lab 52.5% Lib Dem 16% Oth 4%
August 1996: Con 29% Lab 52% Lib Dem 15% Oth 4.5%
1997: Con 31% Lab 44% Lib Dem 18% Oth 7%
August 1997: Con 26.5% Lab 56% Lib Dem 13.5% Oth 4%
August 1998: Con 29.5% Lab 50% Lib Dem 15% Oth 5.5%
August 1999: Con 29.5% Lab 49.5% Lib Dem 14.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2000: Con 31.5% Lab 47.5% Lib Dem 14.5% Oth 6%
2001: Con 32% Lab 41% Lib Dem 18% Oth 9%
August 2001: Con 27.5% Lab 49.5% Lib Dem 16.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2002: Con 33% Lab 40% Lib Dem 20.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2003: Con 35% Lab 35.5% Lib Dem 22.5% Oth 8%
August 2004: Con 32.5% Lab 34% Lib Dem 22.5% Oth 10.5%
2005: Con 33% Lab 36% Lib Dem 23% Oth 8%
August 2005: Con 32% Lab 39% Lib Dem 22% Oth 7.5%
August 2006: Con 39% Lab 31% Lib Dem 20% Oth 10%
August 2007: Con 33% Lab 40% Lib Dem 16% Oth 11%

Worth bearing in mind that historically there are very few polls conducted in August anyway. 

[Ben.]

Could anybody tell me how the seat distribution would have been with the August 1997 poll average (Lab 56%, Con 26.5%, LD 13.5%, Other 4%)?

With pleasure. In a nutshell, a super Lab landslide (and the first government to poll more than 50% of all votes cast since the Second World War).

Labour 514 seats (+94 seats), Conservatives 96 seats (-66 seats), Lib Dems 28 seats (-19) Others 21 seats (-8). Labour majority of 369.

Makes you wonder which MPs of note would be left amongst the Conservatives.

[Ben.]

Two new polls:

Populus/The Times, completed 27 Sep (changes on Populus, The Times, 2 Sep):

LAB 41% (+4) / CON 31% (-5) / LDEM 17% (-1)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2554211.ece

YouGov/Daily Telegraph, completed 21 Sep (changes on YouGov, The Daily Telegraph, 21 Sep):

LAB 43% (+4) / CON 32% (-1) / LDEM 15% (-1)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=M0AHWXW54RK0LQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2007/09/29/npoll129.xml

Full results http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/29/npoll429.xml

Note: Changes on YouGov/C4 news immediately post-Brown's speech are LAB -1; CON -1 and LDEM +2

Dave

Labour boost from the conference of 4-5% then... solid, although IIRC both IDS and Howard got bigger boosts from their conferences in '03 and '04 (of they didn't last ).

A lot of pressure on DC at conference (IMHO there was always going to be), his biggest disadvantage must be that we wont know what impact the Conservative conference has until this time next week.

[Ben.]

On the plus side I have some spare annual leave and flexi I can use if there's a 'snap' election. Likelyhood is I could be bussed down south. No doubt Corby

The great thing about Corby and East Northants is that you can split your time between places like Oundle out in the county and then the Lloyds estate in central Corby, all good fun and games and in November it'll all be about turnout IMHO. 

[Ben.]

Seem rather sure, Ben that Gord will go to the country. We're having lovely weather here in Durham at the moment (for October), but it can only get worse. Not to mention dark nights

Dave

Dave, in the last few days i've spoken with folks in both the Labour and Conservative parties, MPs and PPCs as well as party workers, agents and organisers... it all seems to be set for November (either the 1st or the 8th), and if it does take place its one of the biggest gambles in modern political history IMHO.   

[Ben.]

Are any of the parties really actually ready for a snap election? I'm sure should it come I'll fight the good fight but I don't find the dark nights and trudging in the rain particularly appealing

Wouldn't they all rather wait, truth to be known ?

Dave

Personally I'd rather wait till 2009 and if the polls are close this weekend then it might be that's what we'll see (I dont buy that Brown might go next May, in my mind its either a "snap" poll now or a poll once this parliament has run its full (ish) course.

That said if the polls are close this weekend (and the "word" seems to be that Labour's private polling has their marginals as "patchy" and "very close") and yet Brown still goes for an election, then he is going because he fears worse and doesnt anticipate ever having a better chance to win his own mandate.

I'm less sure of an election than i was a few days ago, however it's almost got to a "1914" situation with troops having been marched to the top of so many hills that it cant really be put off now what ever the polls say.       

[Ben.]

67% of Tories want a snap election with 76% 'absolutely certain' to vote. Only 36% of Labour supporters want an election with 59% 'absolutely certain' to vote and around '1 in 2' of Lib Dems absolutely certain to vote

IMHO that could be key in a November poll... of course the "froth" from the post conference polls will dissapate somewhat over the weekend, but having said that nothing to suggest that DC can't have an excellent general election campaign and the party cant do well on polling day. Then again I'd still only put the chances of a general election at 50/50 at the moment... i realy hope there isnt a poll as it'll just get in the way! 

[Ben.]

According to the BBC, an autumn election has been ruled out.

Sky and (of course) the Blogs now have it, the polling in the marginals was very poor for Labour or so it's being reported and tommorow's polls arent great either by all acounts... we'll see on the last two points, but looks like it's been called of now which IMHO is a good thing coz it means it wont bugger up my third year at Uni now!    

[Ben.]

Which is a very sad reflection given the appalling way he can conduct himself, especially his crass comments in the wake of the Rhys Jones killing.

Out of interest Dave were you so critical when Blair made his strident intervention following the Jamie Bulger murder “hammer blows against the sleeping conscience of the nation…”?

From what you say it seems that DC should just not say any thing that has the potential to shame or embarrass the current government, nor it seems is he entitled to propose alternative polices to those all ready being pursed by the government without you decrying the former as “low blows” and the later as “lurches to the right”.

If you honestly think that Cameron has been given a “free ride” by the media, then frankly, you’ve been living under a rock for the last six months – Cameron has had a pretty torid time since the grammer school row earlier this year. Meanwhile Brown and Labour enjoyed a media love-in from across the political spectrum that only began to unravel over the last week or so!