2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[smoltchanov]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

Lean R still seems right to me.  The same poll has Tester up 10.  I feel very good about Tester's chance to win, but not by that much.  I wouldn't be surprised on election day to see both Tester and Gianforte win by about 5.

This is my take too.

[smoltchanov]

Yvette Herrell seaking a rematch in NM-2

Her conduct was an embarrassment after the election and she didn't wage a strong enough campaign to win a fairly red district in the first place. I think Torres Small is an underdog against most candidates but not against Herrell.

Agree. Against "normal conservative" without baggage she may be underdog (though Presidential year turnout may help), against Herrell - probably slight favorite.

[smoltchanov]

Why the hell does everyone want to primary DeGette for some reason?

Probably - again the idiotic theory, that urban liberal minority-heavy districts MUST elect "progressive minority candidates" ONLY....

[smoltchanov]

Comeback Claudia?

If she gets nominated, this race moves from Lean R to Tilt D.

I wouldn't be so sure. Tenney is an underperformer, but even she would benefit from what is likely to be a more favorable environment in this particular district in 2020. Her loss in 2018 wasn't even that bad, all things considered, especially since she ran against a popular state legislator who was considered a "good fit" for NY-22.

I generally agree. But this "popular state legislator" is an incumbent Congressman now, and that's, most likely, a plus...

[smoltchanov]

RRH out with new House ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/05/25/rrh-elections-may-2019-house-ratings/

They are way too optimistic on some newly blue seats reverting to form (GA-06, NJ-07) and overestimating Peterson’s and JVD’s position. Generally not like them to be Charlie Cook-tier

The mods are all Never Trumper/Trump skeptic elitists and in denial about the Trump era. They still believe that the GOP is still competitive in areas like Texas HD 134.

In fact - it is. HD-134 is represented by Republican Sarah Davis in legislature. It's another question - "which Republican can win HD-134"?

[smoltchanov]

Mace is usually characterized as "conservative firebrand". District (SC-01) is, undoubtely, conservative, but, if i remmeber correctly, doesn't especially likes firebrands..

[smoltchanov]

What does the GOP bench look like here? Not that they need an A-lister to take on Peterson, but given the district’s conservative lean you’d think the GOP could find someone better than the some guy Peterson faced in 2016 and 2018.

Most conservatives probably prefer wait and see what this district will be like after next redistricting..

[smoltchanov]

Nancy Mace doesn't really strike me as an insurgent. She seems calmer than Arrington, friendlier to gay rights, and she was that legislator that was getting hate from her own party for criticizing the abortion bills banning exceptions for rape and incest.

Good if so. May be - she is an "economic firebrand"....

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1138848739261526018?s=19

Likely R if she's the nominee...close to safe than lean.

Tend to agree...

[smoltchanov]

Excellent news about Cuellar's primary challenger. He's maybe the most conservative Democrat still serving, and he's gotten way too comfortable. This is a necessary development.

Have nothing against primary per se, but expect Cuellar to win convincingly. He fits his district well...

[smoltchanov]

do we have a consensus on how much Ds will need to win the house PV by to keep control of the lower chamber?

My guess: +7 will, probably, be enough...

[smoltchanov]

do we have a consensus on how much Ds will need to win the house PV by to keep control of the lower chamber?

My guess: +7 will, probably, be enough...

I doubt it'd need to be that high, not all of the districts are going to follow the national vote the same way.   As example I fully expect suburban districts like CO-6, IL-6, CA-49, VA-10, and MN-3 are all probably gone for the GOP forever regardless of national trends.   

May be. We will see in 16,5 month...

[smoltchanov]

RRH with updates Senate ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/06/29/rrh-elections-june-2019-senate-rankings/

Too early, but i wouldn't say they are very much "off-mark". May be - somewhat too optimistic about Republican chances in New Mexico, and (may be) Montana, but generally - my own list of competitive Senate elections is similar.

[smoltchanov]

RRH with updates Senate ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/06/29/rrh-elections-june-2019-senate-rankings/

They are way too bullish about Colorado.

May be this too..

[smoltchanov]

Housley OUT for MN-Sen.

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2019/07/02/this-is-the-right-decision-karin-housley-wont-seek-2020-rematch-with-sen-tina-smith/

A friend has been telling me that Jason Lewis is probably going to go for it lol.

The better for Smith. An opponent of only slightly above Roy Moore level, and this is still Minnesota, not Alabama.

[smoltchanov]

Drew Savicki is an idiot. Don't quote him here.

Drew Savicki is daddy of election twitter, jmilescoleman is overrated, stop.

Jmilescoleman is an actually professional with much deeper analysis.

Miles and Drew are friends and colleagues.

More accustomed to Miles maps, and like him a lot. But - like both and use maps of both...

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/JMShumway/status/1162138818259984385?s=19

A Conservadem State Senator primarying a Blue Dog... really?

He’s a fake Bluedog

Almost none of these days Blue Dogs are even comparable to their counterparts of decade ago. Even less so - with "Boll Weevils" of the past.