will David Cameron ever be PM of the UK?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a fair chance of it happening (the Tories have a reasonable chance of winning the next election and even if they don't he's young enough (and, although I'm never that sure of internal Tory stuff, his enemies divided enough) to make it to the one after that), but this is the sort of thing you can never be sure about (the list of people who "should" have made it but didn't is rather long and includes some politicians far more skilled and intelligent than Cameron,or, for that matter, the people that became P.M (or Party Leader) instead of them).

He has a better chance of getting to Number Ten than around 90% of other M.P's, that we can be sure of. Anything else is speculation or hype.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the far more interesting question is what happens to Brown in the likely scenario Parliament is hung or the Conservatives win outright.

Wouldn't be even slightly interesting in the latter case; the only question would be when he would go, not if.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

David Cameron is the best thing to happen to the Tories since the Winter of Discontent

I would actually say that the Labour Party conference of 1980 was a much better thing for the Tories than a wave of public sector strikes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True, but without those strikes, Thatcher might not have been elected in the first place

The media coverage of the strikes was more important than the strikes themselves. People's memories of the Winter of Discontent are like people's memories of the Blitz; they don't remember what actually happend, they remember what they were told (in later years) to remember.

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It probably was me, though it's also a fairly common view. I'm also of the opinion that Labour could have won, or at least forced another draw, had the election been later in the year (this view isn't so common, but I think I'm right anyway). If only Roy Mason wasn't NI Secretary (or was that a wash? IIRC two UUP M.P's actually voted with the Government. EDIT: McCusker certainly did (not much of a surprise, that...) Anyone know if another did nor not?). Scratch that then. I'll blame it on the stupidity of the Liberal and SNP leaders instead. And the liquid diets of too many older Labour M.P's.

Of course Mr Callaghan had higher personal approval ratings than Mrs Thatcher going into an election IIRC.

Yep. Callaghan was very unusual; a genuinely popular politician leading one of the big parties.

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Thatcher didn't... exactly... provide much in the way of stability either...