will David Cameron ever be PM of the UK?

[© tweed]

.

[Silent Hunter]

Possibly yes, hopefully no.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a fair chance of it happening (the Tories have a reasonable chance of winning the next election and even if they don't he's young enough (and, although I'm never that sure of internal Tory stuff, his enemies divided enough) to make it to the one after that), but this is the sort of thing you can never be sure about (the list of people who "should" have made it but didn't is rather long and includes some politicians far more skilled and intelligent than Cameron,or, for that matter, the people that became P.M (or Party Leader) instead of them).

He has a better chance of getting to Number Ten than around 90% of other M.P's, that we can be sure of. Anything else is speculation or hype.

[Јas]

Of all people not currently PM, he's the heavy favourite to become PM at some point. At the moment, I'd say it's definitely possible; probably probable; but by no means certain that he will be the next PM.

Barring the unforeseen, he should lead the Conservatives into the next election. At present they seem to have as good a chance of winning it outright as at any time for as long as I can remember. Even if they don't win outright there's a chance of becoming PM as head of a minority government or of a coalition government (presumably with the Lib Dems).

If he doesn't become PM after the next election, his chances diminish exponentially. He'll have needed to make the election a close run thing at least; possibly have Labour working off of a slim (or preferably no) majority or in coalition themselves (again presumably with the Lib Dems), to give himself a good shot at fighting another election as leader.

[Person Man]

I have heard about Cameron. How conservative is he, anyway? I know the tories are nativists, but beyond that, I don't know what they run on that the Labour hasn't triangulated.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

There's a good chance that Cameron can become the next British Prime Minister at the next Election. If he loses to Prime Minister Brown at the next Election, which will probably be in 2009, he probably won't but he would leave the Tories in a very good position.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

I think the far more interesting question is what happens to Brown in the likely scenario Parliament is hung or the Conservatives win outright.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the far more interesting question is what happens to Brown in the likely scenario Parliament is hung or the Conservatives win outright.

Wouldn't be even slightly interesting in the latter case; the only question would be when he would go, not if.

[afleitch]

Other than a fatality, David Cameron will be the next PM of the UK.

Whether this will be after a short minority Brown government or by winning an outright majority at the next election is debatable. However 2008 will define whether the next election will be competative or whether a Conservative victory becomes an inevatability re Labour in 1995/1996.

[Keystone Phil]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

[Hash]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

[Keystone Phil]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

John Redwood! 

Basically anyone but Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way.

[afleitch]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

John Redwood! 

Basically anyone but Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way.

Redwood? We can kiss the next 3 elections at least goodbye. Cameron is a recent historic first; a Tory leader that is actually liked

[Keystone Phil]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

John Redwood! 

Basically anyone but Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way.

Redwood? We can kiss the next 3 elections at least goodbye. Cameron is a recent historic first; a Tory leader that is actually liked

Afleitch, you should know that when it comes to British politics (and even American politics), I am one to like the controversial and sometimes politically unpopular. 

[Person Man]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

John Redwood! 

Basically anyone but Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way.

Redwood? We can kiss the next 3 elections at least goodbye. Cameron is a recent historic first; a Tory leader that is actually liked

Afleitch, you should know that when it comes to British politics (and even American politics), I am one to like the controversial and sometimes politically unpopular. 

Something tells me that it would be George W. Redwood.

[Cubby]

David Cameron is the best thing to happen to the Tories since the Winter of Discontent

I look forward to seeing him elected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

David Cameron is the best thing to happen to the Tories since the Winter of Discontent

I would actually say that the Labour Party conference of 1980 was a much better thing for the Tories than a wave of public sector strikes.

[Silent Hunter]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

John Redwood! 

Basically anyone but Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way.

Redwood? We can kiss the next 3 elections at least goodbye. Cameron is a recent historic first; a Tory leader that is actually liked

What about Macmillan?

[afleitch]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

John Redwood! 

Basically anyone but Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way.

Redwood? We can kiss the next 3 elections at least goodbye. Cameron is a recent historic first; a Tory leader that is actually liked

What about Macmillan?

Well I did say 'recent' history. I think he is our Macmillan, we have a 'decontaminated' leader and party and the two hand in hand put us in the strongest position for a long time.

[Verily]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

John Redwood! 

Basically anyone but Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way.

Redwood? We can kiss the next 3 elections at least goodbye. Cameron is a recent historic first; a Tory leader that is actually liked

What about Macmillan?

Well I did say 'recent' history. I think he is our Macmillan, we have a 'decontaminated' leader and party and the two hand in hand put us in the strongest position for a long time.

I thought Tony Blair was the decontaminated Labour leader. David Cameron is the Tory Tony Blair? *ducks*

[minionofmidas]

Hopefully not. The Tories need to get rid of this joke.

Who would you favor as Tory leader?

John Redwood! 

Basically anyone but Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way.

Redwood? We can kiss the next 3 elections at least goodbye. Cameron is a recent historic first; a Tory leader that is actually liked

What about Macmillan?

Well I did say 'recent' history. I think he is our Macmillan, we have a 'decontaminated' leader and party and the two hand in hand put us in the strongest position for a long time.

I thought Tony Blair was the decontaminated Labour leader. David Cameron is the Tory Tony Blair? *ducks*

Yes... of course by 1997 Labour didn't need a decontaminated leader to win elections.

[Democratic Hawk]

Possibly yes, hopefully no.

[Cubby]

David Cameron is the best thing to happen to the Tories since the Winter of Discontent

I would actually say that the Labour Party conference of 1980 was a much better thing for the Tories than a wave of public sector strikes.

True, but without those strikes, Thatcher might not have been elected in the first place

Someone on the forum (maybe you?) once said that if Callaghan had held the election earlier (in late '78) he probably would have been re-elected. The strikes were what turned the tide.

[afleitch]

David Cameron is the best thing to happen to the Tories since the Winter of Discontent

I would actually say that the Labour Party conference of 1980 was a much better thing for the Tories than a wave of public sector strikes.

True, but without those strikes, Thatcher might not have been elected in the first place

Someone on the forum (maybe you?) once said that if Callaghan had held the election earlier (in late '78) he probably would have been re-elected. The strikes were what turned the tide.

Of course Mr Callaghan had higher personal approval ratings than Mrs Thatcher going into an election IIRC. There was a desire for stability that Heath, Wilson and Callaghan failed to provide.

[Silent Hunter]

Sorry, afleitch, didn't see that. Though I'd define recent as the end of the Second World War.