AV referendum

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, yeah. Next year on the same day as the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections and local elections in, like, just about everywhere in England outside London (and some of the new unitaries? Um... I can't remember which had shadow elections and which had 'real' ones...). Was part of the coalition deal, of course. Cameron (and thus presumably the Tory Party and the bulk of the press) will campaign against it.

Discuss away and that that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What reason are the Greens giving for opposition? The actual reason they're against it is obvious, but I don't know if they can go out and say it.

The official reason, I think, is that it would make PR less likely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently this will be on the same day as the Scottish and Welsh elections. Both First Ministers are not amused.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Apparently?"  That was stated in the original post, right?

Which I wrote. Yes. But I can be absent minded.

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I think the concern is that it will distract and confuse voters in Scotland and Wales and overshadow the elections. In Wales there is to be another referendum at some point, on increased powers for the Assembly.

Though some backbench Tory MPs have raised concerns about the referendum and the elections being on the same day on the basis that there will be differential turnout.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So 5% rather than 3.5% and 600 rather than that previous number (585 or whatever).

With special exemptions for Orkney & Shetland and the Western Isles. But not Anglesey or Wight.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The last time there was a UK-wide referendum was over the EEC; results were counted by County and (I think) no lower. The referendums in Wales and Scotland in 1979 were again counted by County (well, I know they were in Wales, though I've not checked for Scotland) and they were in 1997 as well. The London referendum was counted by borough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it were passed, how would results be announced for future elections? How is it done in Australia?

You know, I don't think anyone's thought that far ahead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Postal votes are usually counted first IIRC. The deadline for sending them off is pretty early.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble is that the Tories have the LibDems by the short and curlies; why would the LibDems collapse the coalition if they knew that doing so would result in a General Election that would likely see them loose over half their parliamentary party? Even those on the left of the party (who made a potentially serious strategic error in not publicly or formally opposing the coalition when it was formed) would presumably baulk at the prospect.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By the way, does anyone have an idea about the position of PC and the SNP about AV?

I doubt they care much, not sure if either have 'official' positions on the matter yet. Though electorally it would help the SNP and screw Plaid, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the best poll for a referendum has it at 44 and only leading by six... hmm...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just read that Plaid and the Welsh LDs could be wiped out under AV, coupled with the Welsh seat decrease to 29...

Plaid have never been exactly transfer hostile, so I'm not sure where that idea comes from. I also don't see how you could avoid drawing at least one Plaid seat, even with a reduction in MPs. You can probably eliminate their Carmarthenshire seat* and one seat in Gwynedd, but the other seat in Gwynedd? Unless elimination was the intent it would be impossible without a change in political attitudes.

*Or could you? The knock-on effects of trying that might swing a Ceredigion seat firmly in their direction.