UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[morgieb]

Clarke represents a notoriously volatile constituency on Teesside.

Which he won off Labor in 2017. Now that's less dangerous than a Corbyn 17/Johnson 19 seat, but clearly he'd be in deep sh**t if an election was held today and would be very vulnerable barring a miracle turnaround for the Tories.

[morgieb]

Opinium have 23% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour! (which under their de facto projection methodology is only a 19% Labour lead)

It's a huge shift - not only is it the largest Labour lead under the current Opinium methodology, it's a huge shift in position from the last poll on Sept 3rd. We're currently looking at a 47% Lab, 27% Tory split. In the prior poll it was 38% Lab, 34% Tory.

Source article for numbers and graphic: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives

Which given Opinium's methodology is meant to be rosy for the Tories.....yikes.

Semi-serious question - can the Tories genuinely recover from such a bad loss? Especially given it appears their support for anyone under the age of 50 at this point has to be close to non-existant?

[morgieb]

Talk about an ending to a very thin book that nobody enjoyed reading.

[morgieb]

NOTE: Truss died on the way back to her home planet

[morgieb]

First Yorkshire based MP to ever become PM in fact.

Wasn't Wilson a Yorkshireman (no Harry Enfield pun intended)?

House seat was in the Liverpool suburbs IIRC.

[morgieb]

lmao this is like when the worst excesses of the Australian right try to make dumb American culture wars a thing

We're through the looking glass here, people.

[morgieb]

Aside from the obvious, there was something distinctly off about that post I couldn't quite put my finger on, but that's it: just bewildering levels of Australian Right energy.

I have suspected for a while that they would try a John Howard tactic regarding this particular issue. I thought, however, that it would occur closer to the election.

It seems like this came out of nowhere as well. At least Howard used a lie about asylum seekers throwing children overboard to get his way on wedging Labor on immigration.

[morgieb]

Why is it getting so much backlash? this is the hard hitting I want to see from the usually bland, arrogant center-left parties in Europe that just rest on their old workerism and not rocking the boat too hard. The message needs to be pummeled that right-wingers want to create a society of billionaire sex traffickers with lumpenproleteriat models giving them massages and some cryptobros enabling their lifestyle by getting excited about their high priest twattery from Jordan Peterson.

Center-right parties deliberately loosen paedo laws because their sponsors often are Epstein lite.

I think the bottom line is that left-wingers think "law and order" is a dogwhistle for punitive punishment against non-white people while leaving rich white people alone.

Which I get, even if the poster suggests that isn't the case.

Also worth remembering even Jeremy Corbyn ran on a law-and-order kind of message in 2017.

[morgieb]

I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn was an electoral asset.

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1692502327880556941?s=61&t=I1DE8_c...

Ooof. Though in saying that this poll still had him ahead....

Would be interesting to see the map, if nothing else.

[morgieb]

I wonder if any prospective candidates could lose their seats like Portillo did or if they're all safe?

Mordaunt's seat used to be Labour and while looks safe on 2019 figures isn't so safe that she would have nothing to fear. She came close to being PM so she is definitely a prospective candidate.

Jeremy Hunt isn't safe either, but I don't think anyone thinks he's a realistic Opposition Leader.

[morgieb]

David Cameron is in Downing Street.

Surely they’re not sending him to the Lords, right now? FCDO from the Lords?

Big Mandelson 2009 energy

I feel like it's even more bizarre than Mandelson joining the Cabinet. It'd be like if Major appointed Thatcher in 1996. How often does an ex-PM become a Cabinet minister, let alone one that isn't even in the Commons? I don't think I've heard of something like that anywhere in the world, at least not in the Anglosphere.

[morgieb]

David Cameron is in Downing Street.

Surely they’re not sending him to the Lords, right now? FCDO from the Lords?

Big Mandelson 2009 energy

I feel like it's even more bizarre than Mandelson joining the Cabinet. It'd be like if Major appointed Thatcher in 1996. How often does an ex-PM become a Cabinet minister, let alone one that isn't even in the Commons? I don't think I've heard of something like that anywhere in the world, at least not in the Anglosphere.

Already forgotten Kevin serving as Julia's Foreign Minister? John Gorton also forced himself into McMahon's cabinet for Defence by being elected as Deputy Leader.

Though Rudd at least was still in Parliament at the time and had only been on the backbench for a couple of months, so not quite as bizarre as Cameron joining the Lords. If anything the comparison here is Bob Carr becoming Foreign Minister after Rudd took a kamikaze run at Gillard's job....

[morgieb]

James Johnson is reaching PolProf Badlose levels of grift now.

Surprised his genuinely hilarious "analysis" about the coming election in the weekend's Telegraph hasn't previously been mentioned here - amongst several classics for the ages it "reveals" that there are currently about 14 million votes "banked" for Labour as opposed to only 8 million for the Tories - but a Labour win is not guaranteed because all this extra support might pile up in already safe seats.

(this is apparently something also fervently espoused by Tory "strategy guru" Levido - the fact there is literally zero evidence for it in local elections, by-elections or polling internals doesn't matter)

If anything I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour go backwards in their ultra-safe seats given certain policy decisions by Starman.