What is more likely to happen in Florida?

[Devils30]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

[Devils30]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

[Devils30]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

Democrats barely won the first round with the best possible incumbent versus someone who beat up his wife, while every other race had the Republican win between 5 to 9. And Atlanta only saw 2 point swings, not 10. Miami-Dade also saw 7 point left swings every cycle from 2004 to 2016.

Louisiana and every 2022 result across many different states, as well as polling shows the black belt rural counties shifting hard right. And you don’t get to dismiss current Georgia polling. Unlike the rest of the states, Georgia polls were accurate within 1 point.

2 point swings? Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Forsyth, Rockdale were all 10+ the last 2 cycles. And don't compare an open primary in Louisiana where the Dem had no money, both parties knew the race was over to project the presidential race. That's like me saying Shapiro winning PA by 15 means the state is out of play in 2024.

[Devils30]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

Democrats barely won the first round with the best possible incumbent versus someone who beat up his wife, while every other race had the Republican win between 5 to 9. And Atlanta only saw 2 point swings, not 10. Miami-Dade also saw 7 point left swings every cycle from 2004 to 2016.

Louisiana and every 2022 result across many different states, as well as polling shows the black belt rural counties shifting hard right. And you don’t get to dismiss current Georgia polling. Unlike the rest of the states, Georgia polls were accurate within 1 point.

2 point swings? Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Forsyth, Rockdale were all 10+ the last 2 cycles. And don't compare an open primary in Louisiana where the Dem had no money, both parties knew the race was over to project the presidential race. That's like me saying Shapiro winning PA by 15 means the state is out of play in 2024.

2 points from 2020 to 2022 Senate first round(while trending right by 6+ in every other race). A lot of white working class places in Michigan had 20+ swings for 2 cycles in a row then didn’t swing in 2020. Similarly Miami made 7 point left swings 4 cycles in a row before 2020.

Why do you think Trump does 7 points worse in Atlanta when Walker barely did worse in his first round?

Fulton isn't just Atlanta, has a lot of northern suburbs that are still getting bluer. And if these counties got 2% bluer in 2022 compared to 2020 while the country got 5% redder, that is a 7% Democratic TREND.

Don't compare anything to Miami-Dade, the Cuban/South American population is so unique and a major outlier.

[Devils30]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

[Devils30]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.

The notion by riverwalk that Trump got so close in Dade County because of Cuban COVID backslash is just blatantly false.

Let's be honest: The reason Trump cut the almost 300,000 margin in Dade to 86,000+ by 2020 wasn't a Cuban COVID Backslash, it was because Trump, the RNC and the Florida Republican Party "Relentlessly" hammered Biden and D's to be Socialists and guess what: It worked.

Biden now has a Record and what he did between 2021 and 2023 when he had all 3 branches of Govtm with the New Green Deal/Climate Change Crap/Inflation Reduction Act was pure disaster particularly for the South Florida Hispanics. Thank God that they had DeSantis instead of Gillum otherwise Florida would have rolled off the deep end.

The Green New Deal never passed, what did pass was a watered down and very moderate bill. The squad and Democratic socialists did untold damage to Florida Dems and will do even bigger damage to Dems nationwide if the party does not extinguish this pro-Hamas garbage.

Duval is culturally more like the rest of the south than Miami or Tampa. I would compare its trends more to Greensboro, Macon, Savannah, Charlotte and is clearly trending D. Dems won the mayor election earlier this year by same as Biden's +4 margin.

[Devils30]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

Trump lost Hispanics in FL 52-47 in 2020. He lost Puerto Ricans by over 50 Points in 2020. That's just not going to happen in 2024. I'll think he'll win the Hispanic Vote in FL this time.

Dade's Hispanic vote is so different from NV, AZ, TX Hispanic vote that is mostly of Mexican decent and much more Dem friendly. Of course TX Hispanics include a lot of 4th+ generation who are more conservative so Dems benefit less than in NV/AZ. Dade does its own thing, Trump could win it by 10 in a huge electoral vote loss or lose it by 10 and be competitive nationally. I would bet Dade is only 0-3% either way in 2024 though.

But I think Biden will win again with NV/AZ/GA/WI/MI/PA staying blue in an exact 2020 repeat. Republicans might be better losing 2024, they can face a weakened Kamala or get lucky if Dems pick an anti-Israel whacko. Of course the Dems could pick a Whitmer, Shapiro and really get it right if they want.

[Devils30]

Duval, Miami-Dade, and maybe Seminole are pure tossups.

Every other county votes how it did in the 2022 Senate election (outside of Hillsborough and Osceola-which will both still be much closer than in 2020).

I think Duval is Lean D, it was 7-8% to the left of the state in 2020 and 2022 and it would not shock me if its 10-12% left of the state in 2024.

[Devils30]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

Trump lost Hispanics in FL 52-47 in 2020. He lost Puerto Ricans by over 50 Points in 2020. That's just not going to happen in 2024. I'll think he'll win the Hispanic Vote in FL this time.

Dade's Hispanic vote is so different from NV, AZ, TX Hispanic vote that is mostly of Mexican decent and much more Dem friendly. Of course TX Hispanics include a lot of 4th+ generation who are more conservative so Dems benefit less than in NV/AZ. Dade does its own thing, Trump could win it by 10 in a huge electoral vote loss or lose it by 10 and be competitive nationally. I would bet Dade is only 0-3% either way in 2024 though.

But I think Biden will win again with NV/AZ/GA/WI/MI/PA staying blue in an exact 2020 repeat. Republicans might be better losing 2024, they can face a weakened Kamala or get lucky if Dems pick an anti-Israel whacko. Of course the Dems could pick a Whitmer, Shapiro and really get it right if they want.

I am curious what happens in Counties like Yuma County (AZ) or the Rio Grande Valley in TX. If the Southern Border Crisis worsens that could be at least the ballgame for Biden in TX.
Trump actually increased his margin in Yuma County from 2016 to 2020. We'll see if that happens again.

I think Biden can do worse in Yuma and it won't matter at all if he's running ahead of 2020 in Maricopa, Pima. Places like Scottsdale have plenty of room for Dem growth when you look at education. AZ Dems are good moderates without a trace of the Democratic Socialists.

[Devils30]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

[Devils30]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

Do you think Florida could be called at the closing of the Polls in 2024. The last time the Networks called FL at Poll Closing Time during a Presidential Race was in 1996 when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole.

They can't call Florida by 7 pm since polls are open in the panhandle until 8 pm eastern but yes, at 8 I think they might be able to call FL this year. It counts fast and all of us who know numbers called it for Trump in 2020 by 7:45 pm or so.