Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Devils30]

The Dems endless incompetence is staggering. This is what happens when you promote a bunch of idiot moron social justice types as the future and get the media to go along with it. You can thank AOC, Omar and company for the future Republican majority with 59 senators come 2025. Forget about stolen elections, Rs won't need to cheat!

[Devils30]

Turnout at around 3 million would be basically the same % of 2020 as 2017 was of 2016. If Dems lose it's hard to blame this one on turnout.

This model is also interesting:

https://rpubs.com/thorongil16/803187

I'm not sure rural counties like Brunswick, Greensville and Sussex have such a huge GOP swing. All 3 are at least 54% black and very inelastic from looking at historic elections.

[Devils30]

There is a very thin line between a GOP sweep and a Dem hold with only a 1-2 seat HoD loss.

[Devils30]

Chaz Nuttycombe has Governor at Tilt R, Lt. Governor as Tilt D and AG as Lean D, with the GOP picking up 7 Delegate seats (HDs 10, 12, 28, 73, 75, 83 and 85).

12, 28, 75, 85 are certainly possible flips with the trends in 12 being bad for Dems.
10 was Biden +16
73 was Biden +21
83 was Biden +15.

If polls are off even a tiny bit in the suburbs and TMac holds on by a few, I can see Dems holding everything but 12.

[Devils30]

It will be interesting to see if places that swung heavily Dem in 2016-20 still vote Dem downballot even if they go for Youngkin for Gov.

[Devils30]

The polls with TMac +10 with white college grads and in any trouble in Loudoun are literally impossible together. One has to be wrong.

[Devils30]

Looks like turnout data is much easier to come by in D-leaning counties. Only looking at those, things seem to be going okay, but then you occasionally get news out of the R-leaning counties and suddenly the Fox poll doesn’t seem too crazy.
https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1455590841200881673?s=21

Even Hanover is an educated R county where Rs have lost ground in recent years. Any reports in places like Buchanan, Russell in SW VA?

[Devils30]

The chance it’s 73% white is close to zero.

[Devils30]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0

This is an unweighted mess...ignore.

[Devils30]

Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

Don't be over dramatic you clown.

But anyway I told yall so.

but.. yea the HoD flips back next year on redistricting alone lol

How bad is the current HoD map for Democrats?

Not terrible, the Dem party is just incompetent.

[Devils30]

Looks like something of a liberal revolt in inner NOVA.  Longtime incumbents Petersen and Barker with something of a reputation for deal-making are both down to more progressive primary challengers.  Also, as noted above, Petersen was by far the most libertarian Dem on COVID rules.  The incumbent progressive prosecutors in Arlington and Loudoun have won are against primary challengers who positioned themselves as tough on crime and the progressive incumbent in Fairfax is leading pretty significantly. 

Its making me very worried about the general electiom results.

I just added some info.  I think these results call into question whether the State Senate will actually be easier for Dems than the HoD.  Not so much because of the Petersen and Barker seats.  Those are >60% McAuliffe and would probably auto-elect any Dem not named Joe Morrisey in the general.  It's not like they nominated a lifelong professional activist in SD-31 (the most likely decisive seat in western Loudoun).  However, if Guzman actually wins SD-29 over incumbent McPike (there is a lot of vote left to count), that would be more concerning.  Guzman introduced a bill last year to revoke parental rights for parents who refuse to affirm their child's gender identity.  That's not a 100% safe seat and it's also the kind of place that is likely way more Dem than socially liberal.  

All of the Tilt R narrow Biden->Youngkin districts got the strongest Republican nominee tonight, so I don't see any freebies on the map for Dems elsewhere.    

SD-29 was Biden +21, once upon a time it was in play but not in 2023.