WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Devils30]

Barnes is a really mediocre looking candidate, he'll appeal to the high dollar donors in NYC but I have real doubts he has a good shot in the general election.

[Devils30]

That endorsement by Warren will just show extreme Barnes is. He will repeatedly tied to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and socialist policies.

Everything she touches is a problem, from her DNA to endorsements like Maya Wiley. Dems should pick a better candidate here and Lamb in PA. Have the DSCC endorse Beasley in NC who is better positioned to take advantage of demographics.

[Devils30]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

Johnson is behaving like he's trying to lose...look at Steve Southerland and Lee Terry in 2014. An incumbent can lose in a wave year for their party if they make enough stupid mistakes. The 1849 law being on the books and creating confusion will also be a GOP problem. I don't expect this resolved until the 2023 election gives Dems a majority on the state Supreme Court and that will also give them better maps for 2024.

[Devils30]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

[Devils30]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

If it becomes a de facto ballot referendum on abortion it will be a Dem blowout. The 1849 law is on the books simply because it was never repealed, like 58% of the state is pro choice.

[Devils30]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

I've said there are similarities with him and Steve Southerland, Lee Terry in 2014. His behavior is extremely erratic, although to be fair Barnes has more than his share of problems too and is way too left leaning for the state.

[Devils30]

How fun would it be if Marquette threw in a Barnes +2 poll tomorrow and send Twitter into a frenzy on all ends.