Ontario Election 2022

[King of Kensington]

I also wanted to call Spadina-Fort York for the Liberals.

That would be the first break in the pattern of the downtown TO seats voting the same way.  Spadina-Fort York seems to have the weakest NDP base of the three.  I have it in the NDP column.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, Toronto Centre lacks Rosedale and has fewer high income ondo-dwellers and more social housing and low income immigrants.  It's the least Conservative of the three.

Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale came in at basically an identical result last time, but Uni-Rose more bifurcated.  It has a stronger NDP base, but also has the Avenue Rd. "wall" east of which is really weak for the NDP. 

[King of Kensington]

I have Hamilton East-Stoney Creek in the PC column.

[King of Kensington]

3 polls in Vaughan-Woodbridge and you can already see Del Duca is done.

[King of Kensington]

Quite the comfortable lead for Jill Andrew in St. Paul's. 

[King of Kensington]

Interesting how of the inner Toronto seats, Beaches is the Liberal exception, not St. Paul's (though Rima Berns-McGown would likely have held the seat if she ran again).  In some ways that may actually be more "demographically correct" given that St. Paul's has more renters and apartment dwellers and is closer to the downtown core.  It has shifted significantly leftward.

[King of Kensington]

Since the list is so short, here are the OLP seats:

Beaches-East York
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Kingston and the Islands
Orleans
Ottawa South
Ottawa-Vanier
Scarborough-Guildwood

[King of Kensington]

"Jewish issues" (Israel, religious school funding) are less salient than they were 10 or 15 years ago.

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the question of "does Don Valley West have more NDP potential than Eglinton-Lawrence?" has been resolved.  It doesn't.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting to see the NDP lose in Timmins, Windsor-Tecumseh and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek but hold on in Oshawa and in Niagara Region.

[King of Kensington]

In University-Rosedale, it looks like Dianne Saxe votes came from NDP voters of the previous election, she was down more than 10 points while Liberal vote seemed about what I'd expect.  I believe she did especially well in the Annex and Harbord Village, judging by my surveying of signage in the riding.

[King of Kensington]

There were two Jews elected:

https://thecjn.ca/news/michael-kerzner-will-be-the-newest-jewish-politician-at-queens-park-after-winning-a-seat-as-part-of-the-ontario-pc-election-sweep/

Remarkably, neither the Liberals or the PCs ran Jewish candidates in Thornhill.  

The most high profile Jewish candidate running for the Liberals, Nathan Stall in St. Paul's, lost to NDP incumbent Jill Andrew.  That riding looked like a no-brainer pickup, but the Liberal vote had tanked so significantly that they couldn't even win there and Jill Andrew's election proved to more than a fluke.

I don't think there's anything particularly distinct about the Jewish vote at the provincial level.   Suburban and more religious Jews vote PC, but there's obviously a large number of urban, liberal and progressive minded Jews who vote Liberal, NDP and Green.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting how the university towns of Kingston and Guelph have Liberal and Green MPPs, respectively.  And rather fittingly Kingston/Queen's U. is more "establishmentarian" while Guelph has a "crunchy granola" reputation.

[King of Kensington]

Don Valley West is the wealthiest.

Average Income

Don Valley West  $109,887
University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Oakville  $81,854
Eglinton-Lawrence  $81,773

Average HH Income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470

Top Decile

Don Valley West  33.2%
Oakville  29.7%
Eglinton-Lawrence  27.2%
St. Paul's  24.9%
University-Rosedale  24.9%

[King of Kensington]

Don Valley West is the wealthiest.

Average Income

Don Valley West  $109,887
University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Oakville  $81,854
Eglinton-Lawrence  $81,773

Average HH Income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470

Top Decile

Don Valley West  33.2%
Oakville  29.7%
Eglinton-Lawrence  27.2%
St. Paul's  24.9%
University-Rosedale  24.9%

The current DVW riding is kind of weird. The northern part of the riding is very wealthy and suburban, Leaside is more "old money" (but not quite Rosedale level), the Yonge Street corridor attracts a more yuppie crowd, and Thorncliffe Park is one of the lowest-income areas in the City. I guess in a way, this coalition of brahmin liberals, yuppies and low-income immigrants (in a non-"Ford Nation" part of the City in the latter case, as a similar demographic can vote more Tory in more outer parts of Toronto), is a very OLP-esque mix and not very conducive to voting for Ford. But I would think at the very least, it would make more sense to district Thorncliffe and Flemingdon together, as those neighbourhoods are very similar.

It just shows how wealthy the riding is, given that even with very low-income Thorncliffe it still tops the list on every measure. 

[King of Kensington]

Hudak's awful campaign is the main reason Oshawa has an NDP MPP today.

[King of Kensington]

PCs had a strong second so be interested in seeing poll by poll breakdown.  I am guessing PCs won the more wealthy parts while OLP dominated rest.  Amongst rentals probably got lots of strategic voters too.  As for wealthy voting Liberals now, I think that is true with top 10% but wouldn't be surprised if top 1% still votes Conservative.  Former is largely spared from tax hikes unlike in past when NDP used to run on raising taxes on everyone in top 10% (prior to 2000 provincial taxes were done as a percentage of federal, not independent like now) whereas top 1% have not been.  However top 1% too small in any riding to matter a lot but may in some polls.

Conservatives have been losing ground among the educated.  Education is the factor for liberalism of the top 10% since most are university graduates.  In top 1% where the vast majority are university grads, "too wealthy to give a damn" sentiment (or caring more about high taxation than "cultural liberalism") prevails.  Of course the 1% represent no more than 3% of all university grads.

[King of Kensington]

In DVW, definitely a split on old city of Toronto and Leaside vs. North York lines, and "1% rich" vs. the professionals in the top 10%.  Hence more PC support in York Mills, Bridle Path, Sunnybrook area and Lawrence Park, while Leaside, Davisville, Sherwood Park and Bedford Park are very Liberal.  

[King of Kensington]

Looking at York South-Weston, it looks like Faisal Hassan held the largely African and TCHC polls while a lot of the "white ethnic" Liberal vote shifted to Ford. 

[King of Kensington]

Yup, looks like Mike Colle and Laura Albanese retained some residual Italo-Liberal vote in '18 which evaporated this time.  In the case of YSW, that seems to have helped put Michael Ford over the top.

[King of Kensington]

Duverger's Law worked in the NDPs's favor in Ottawa West-Nepean after the Liberals lost it in 2018.  On paper, the Liberal "strongholds" of Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier are certainly winnable for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Average income

Ottawa Centre  $60,923
Ottawa-Vanier  $48,852
Ottawa West-Nepean  $47,653
Ottawa South  $46,942

Top decile

Ottawa Centre  21.2%
Ottawa South  12.2%
Ottawa-Vanier  11.9%
Ottawa West-Nepean  11.8%

University degree

Ottawa Centre  62.5%
Ottawa West-Nepean  43.2%
Ottawa South  42.3%
Ottawa-Vanier  42.2%

Visible minority

Ottawa South  39.3%
Ottawa West-Nepean  29.3%
Ottawa-Vanier  28.3%
Ottawa Centre  20%