UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[afleitch]

Also

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1600461810473357312

[afleitch]

Also

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1600461810473357312

Interesting, very out of kilter with most recent opinion polling if accurate.

There hasn't been much, other than from Redfield etc which was their first Scottish poll. But even they showed a Yes lead.

[afleitch]

Scotland is generally accepted as a distinct nation within the UK, though - and this has pretty much always been the case since 1707 (even at the height of "modern" unionism in the 1950s)

And Scotland was arguably a more 'independent' nation prior to the rise of the welfare state and other state apparatus due to the powers afforded to it as part of the Act of Union; law, church and education.

[afleitch]

Jonathan Gullis next, possibly? He is sailing close to the wind rather a lot.

The realization that it's going to be hard to hang on has all sorts of interesting effects on MPs sometimes doesn't it.

All behind a screen. At least in the 'old days' they used to brandish a pickaxe in public then suffer a nervous breakdown.

[afleitch]

I'm glad the govt is striking down the law. Not just because the Scottish law is an abhorrent law but because it quite simply is outside the Scottish Parliament's remit due to its UK-wide implications.

It would be better for this country's constitution if the laws that the devolved powers can legislate on were clearly defined.

Agree with the latter point, but then surely the preferable route is for the Supreme Court to rule that this legislation is defective in that way - rather than the Tory government unilaterally striking it down in fairly obvious pursuit of a culture war agenda.

Or during six years of consultation UK Gov could have said something.

It's a wider shot against the devolution settlement more than anything else, which we know is the new prevailing post Brexit strategy from Tufton Street

Also from Tufton Street is keeping the GRA issue live. The roof not falling in in Scotland would put an end to much of the effectiveness of the rhetoric elsewhere.

[afleitch]

Nah, it's not really.

If you pay the slightest bit of attention to either, which as a pro-indy pro-GRA reform, I spend far too much time having to keep up with the latest nonsense from the Tory right.

https://mobile.twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1613834216692662274

[afleitch]

I was struck this past weekend during the interview circuits how brazenly shameless Starmer is as a politician, how he's likely to be the next PM but also that it's a really big weakness going into a GE to be known as someone who either won't commit, or will drop specific policy pledges without blinking.

He has no beliefs.

[afleitch]

At the moment, he believes that nothing should stand in the way of Labour winning the next GE.

Yes, that is a fair assessment at present.

The question is, does he have any deeper philosophy to guide him when in government? His critics say not and this is a major reason why he will be a disaster in power. I think they could yet be wrong.

That's what I'm mean.

He'll do anything, adopt anything, dump anything to win a GE (even though he might not have to) There's no grand narrative; he doesn't ever articulate what he wants the country to be.

[afleitch]

Some very real splits emerging in Scottish Labour today, particularly regarding the devolution settlement
Even if it's more of a millstone around their necks in recent years, you can't say it's not a monolith that lacks their commitment.

[afleitch]

Spent the day on the doors and not a single person mentioned trans rights or Scottish constitutional law. I have serious doubts this issue will have any cut through.

Despite a lot of shouting on trans rights from politicians & the media desperate for a culture war, most people’s view is “trans people should be allowed to be/do what they want, I don’t really care”. And they care even less about the ins and outs of devolution.

I agree.

I would argue however they do care about the ins and outs of devolution in Scotland and this has went down like a cup of cold sick. When Alex Cole Hamilton, to his credit, is lock step with the Scot Gov response, something is up.

Some interesting thoughts from Lord Falconer

https://mobile.twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278

It looks more than likely the Supreme Court will not rule in UK Govs favour. It might argue that certain small parts of the bill (usually dealt with by Section 104 orders iirc) could be adjusted, as usually happens because every devolved bill often has interactions with UK legislation, but on the whole if this intervention on this issue fails, then it's shown up for exactly what it is.

Maggie Chapman for example made the point at Holyrood yesterday that using devolved planning laws, Scot Gov places a moratorium on the construction of nuclear power even though that directly impacts the UK energy supply which isn't devolved. This was not challenged. They challenged on that issue, instead which might end up costing them (as it should)

It is a rather dry and technical matter but does need pointing out in order to avoid misconceptions: there was no vote on the implementation of the Section 35 order, which is purely a matter for the Secretary of State. The vote was a symbolic one - '...this House has considered the decision...' - that always follows an Emergency Debate under Standing Order 24.

People have dug up an intervention during the Scotland Act debate back in 1998 from Michael Ancram of all people, who pointed out the dictatorial 'governor general' nature of that clause, rather than have the issue deferred to the court or to Parliament.

[afleitch]

And they care even less about the ins and outs of devolution.

Where were you door knocking?

Because I doubt if that is true of Scotland at least - the SNP engineered this for a reason.

I'm sorry, the SNP did not engineer this. They set out to amend the GRA at the same time the Tories under May, were planning to make the same changes until they ditched them. It was the longest and most intensely consulted piece of legislation in Holyrood history because it got caught up in the culture war. It was supported by all parties (bar the Tories) and passed by all these parties in December, including Labour amendments on the basis that there was an inkling the UK Gov were going to do just this.

[afleitch]

Lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1618266248286015496

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/_sn_n/status/1620483907341914112

I for one welcome our new twink overlord

He looks like someone being paid to say 'woke young people suck' on trash TV

[afleitch]

Well here we are

https://mobile.twitter.com/Chican3ry/status/1621203419305332741

[afleitch]

Unlikely.

There isn't anything left in the tank. Rishi is getting close to having to watch the outcome of each critical vote less there be an organised rebellion; there's likely to be a degree of internal pushback on his threats to leave the ECHR for example.

The polling situation is remarkably stable and being a direct switch of Tory voters; both loyal and transient to Labour, hasn't really unwound back to the Tories favour. The economy won't recover in time; the fundamentals might be better for the Tories than predicted but the net effect on inflation etc isn't going to come through for them. The recent shift in the swings of voting behaviour from class to age is likely to exacerbate any defeat rather than soften it and bake in a much more difficult climate for the Tories in future elections.

[afleitch]

So he's rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic while it's on the ocean floor.

[afleitch]

Very sadly a 16 year old trans girl, Brianna Ghey was murdered at the weekend with two teenagers taken into custody.

Does the press fail the dead as much as they fail the living?

https://mobile.twitter.com/trans_safety/status/1625057183183282177

https://mobile.twitter.com/BernieTranders/status/1625036087696535552

Her family put out a very gracious statement. They lost a daughter.

This sort of story with its 'teenage violence' angle is usually, and sadly often salacious material for the press. But they are in an absolute quandary.

And if you delve into TERF spaces on this story...it's utterly soul destroying.

[afleitch]

The Times have now had to partially re-rat on their erasing of history above - it is being asked, not unreasonably, which of their mega-bucks TERF columnists screamed the place down to get such an act of revisionism passed in the first place.

Nearly all TV channels seem to have had little compunction in referring to the victim as "she".

I think part of it is the initial reporting which referred to the victim as a 'she' followed by an understanding that the victim was a trans women. What was so frankly, evil, about the press was snooping around to find the victims dead name and then adjusting headlines and articles in line with the GC editorial line which was just crass. The quick 180 was in part based on the family coming out in support of Brianna.

[afleitch]

As much as it pains me one half of the discourse is extremely litigious so it's best not to directly state a view on any private organisation, person or charity having any responsibility for anything.

[afleitch]

Yes.

She is a giant in UK politics. It's that simple and it's that fact that has irked so many others she has outlasted.

Truthfully, she was done a few years ago. I don't think she expected the good result at Holyrood in 2021, months after 'Salmondgate' and otherwise would have went. Despite taking a hit in personal ratings, she still easily outpaces everyone else. She's just acquired a core of opponents who really dislike her.

[afleitch]

Forbes would maybe be the best successor, *but* for the "social conservatism" elephant in the room - and that alone may be enough to in reality sink her chances.

Possibly. But she is fairly pragmatic about them. But being a 'Wee Free' is a bigger liability than social conservatism stemming from it.

[afleitch]

Forbes would also be the more conservative candidate economically. Which will win plaudits in some quarters but creates difficulties in others.

It would very possibly make the "left of Labour" schtick in the central belt a bit harder to pull off.

It's however very easy to be left of Labour today. Certainly in contrast to 2017 when the SNP got a central belt fright.

Labour's problems electorally, which you can trace back as far as 1987 (relative to rUK) in it's old Scottish heartlands are exactly as they always have been.

[afleitch]

2010 was an odd duck, given the absolute hammering Labour took at Holyrood a year later.

Labour's performance in 2010 was as much a unwinding of the 'Scottish dimension' of Charles Kennedy's leadership of the Lib Dems on the 2001/2005 results as it was an artefact of the 'Scottish dimension' of Brown.

Which does go some way to prove the point.

 
Scottish Labour are not seen as distinctively Scottish.

That's as true under Starmer as ever, particularly with the party's positioning over the Schedule 35 Order in which it is reluctant to defend its own Devolution settlement.

The Scottish Tories are if your version of Scottishness is of a certain tribe, or a desire not to be distinctively Scottish at all.

[afleitch]

Also, as a signed up member, we knew Sturgeon we likely to go midterm. The 2021 election was a massive result which none of us expected. The Boris-Truss-Rishi second half of last year was a lot of short term uncertainty but coming into 2023 it is clear the government at Westminster will last until there's finger nail marks at the door No10.

Judge Keith's Glorious Isocube awaits us all.

So given there are some domestic blips, which are actually quite navigable, it's not really worth the internal strife. So she goes now rather than orchestrate a drawn out timeframe.

[afleitch]

The argument that Scottish Labour lost because it was insufficiently leftist is undermined by the fact that the SNP isn't either. Scottish Labour lost in 2011 because it was hideously, hilariously incompetent, it lost in 2015 because it was incompetent and unpopular and it's still losing because it's still not viewed as competent, even when the point of comparison is the SNP.

It's incompetence was built in before that as was it's decline. It was just masked by effective leaders (like Dewar) and nationally driven GE rallies (1987 and 1997) that rose all boats.

It's party machine, campaign style, focus and a swathe of it's MSP's were ripped straight from the local council play book and it was ill suited to what the Parliament could do and what it's supporters wanted.

A mistake Welsh Labour (the model of national consciousness the SNP most, underrated-ly, models itself after) never made.

I did have a big effortpost about this somewhere but can't find it.