French presidential election, 2022

[afleitch]

Taking that with an ocean of salt right now.

[afleitch]

Guardian results page not bad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/apr/10/french-election-2020-projected-results-and-latest-results

[afleitch]

It looks like Mélenchon has built a coalition he'd rather not have and another candidate could have made the second round with. There's roots of a leftist revival, which long term is extremely promising.

[afleitch]

lol Zemmour is being investigated because his campaign made a list of all French jews and he bought a list of their phone numbers to target them for his campaign.

Been a while.

[afleitch]

Link is broken. Boo.

[afleitch]

For my own personal amusement; The 1st Round results from Scotland - Edinburgh/Glasgow/Aberdeen


Macron 36.9% -         36.3/35.7/41.7
Melenchon 31.8% -    32.2/33.6/26.7
Jadot 12.8% -           13.2/14.3/8.0
Hidalgo 4.2% -            5.2/3.8/2.1
Zemmour 3.9% -         3.5/3.1/7.1
Le Pen 3.1% -             2.5/3.7/4.0
Pecresse 2.9% -          2.9/2.4/4.0
Dupont-Aignan 1.2% - 1.2/0.5/2.8
Poutou 1.1% -             1.0/1.2/0.9
Lasalle 0.9% -             1.0/0.8/0.9
Roussel 0.7% -            0.5/0.8/1.2
Arthaud 0.3%              0.4/0.1/0.6

[afleitch]

Because I'm 'that person' and couldn't sleep a few days ago, I used exit poll data and regression to predict how Scotland would have voted in the first round. And it's not too far removed from how the French expats actually voted here. Still tweaking it.

[afleitch]

A simple average of the final polls of 10 polling firms that conducted polls this final week has Macron at 55.3%. For whatever it's worth, it's a little lower (54.5%) among the 3 pollsters that were most accurate in the first round. The trendline on Wikipedia, meanwhile, points to something slightly above 56%.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

There's also the roughly 4 point underperformance of Le Pen in  2017 compared to the polls. Though I have a feeling they won't be out by much.

[afleitch]

I'm in Edinburgh right now. Tourists are back in a big way but a very significant number of French students and residents in the city centre making a day of it. Consulate seems busy. Always nice to see democracy in action.

[afleitch]

Macron wins with 57.3-58.2

Yes. Yes he does.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that this is the first re-election of a sitting French President for twenty years.

Macron has under his belt two of the most most one sided victories, with Chirac in 2002 being of course something exceptional. He's extremely close to Pompidou's margin.

[afleitch]

Jaichind's excitement over the equivalent of the results for Dixville Notch was the highlight of the evening.

[afleitch]

Scotland;

Macron 91.44%