British Columbia provincial election 2013

[lilTommy]

.. I did the compass yesterday, forget the actual results but i was 86% NDP 85% Green... so

Ya i think for the green party its based on the parties histories... ON you see it full of old PCs, like Jim Harris so it tilts to the right. I bet BC is more dominated by anti-development types, the sort who fought clayquot, the more radical hippie type who didn't fit in the more moderate, pro-forestry/hydro NDP.

Looks like an NDP win, unless they muck it up somehow, some real questions:
- Will the Greens or Conservatives win any seats?
- How bad will the Liberals lose?

[lilTommy]

Is it just me, or is the CBC blatantly supporting the NDP?

How is this even news: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/story/2013/04/30/bc-vote-compass-dix-wins-debate.html

A lot of their news seems to be pro-NDP. Not that I'm complaining to loudly of course, but it is a strange feeling, since I'm used to them loving the Liberals (but I suppose the NDP is the 'liberal' party in this race)

I think you sort of hit it; BC is basically a two party race; the NDP being something of a Ontario Liberal smushed with the ONDP, and the BCLiberals being the reverse, a OLP/PC smush. The NDP being in the lead for over a year, making announcements everyday, BCL attacking the NDP everyday just makes for more news on the NDP then we in ontario are used to seeing (except recently since we have a minority with the NDP holding the balance).

I watched the debate and found Dix shaky but he didn't make any huge mistakes; Andrea performed better in her debates last election but since it was a three party fight its hard to be the "clear" winner.

Hmm with no BCCon candidate in Van-False Creek that makes it that much easier for Sam Sullivan and the BCL's to win, unless the Greens can pull enough votes away, this ones going to be close but leaning BCL given its demographics

[lilTommy]

Clark tried to vote for herself... realized she voted wrong? wait what? in BC you can do advanced voting in a riding you don't live in? AND then vote for a candidate in another riding that your in? (article said she was in Burnaby voting for the Van-Fairview candidate?)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/05/08/bc-christy-clark-vote.html

[lilTommy]

BC Iconoclast also has a prediction: http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html

GAH! i was just going to post this...

"NDP will win 56 seats, the Liberals 23, independents 4 and Greens 2"

I'm not sold on his 2 green seats (Oak Bay-Gordon Head & Victoria-Beacon Hill), I think it will be tight as he's suggesting, in OBGH specifically this ones a toss up, i'm leaning more on the safe side that voters will go NDP; a gov't MLA and a slump in green polling, just makes me think this will be close but not this year. BUT too close!
Victoria-Beacon Hill though, this still looks/sounds like a solid NDP riding. Former leader, possible minister (maybe, could be a gift to Carole for having been canned so openly and viciously), vs the Green leader who isn't from the riding (this always irks me). Saanich North is more likely to go Green then VBH i think.

Indies are always hard to gage - Delta south, she won in 09 so solid bet she can win again... the only one i'm not sold on is Cariboo North. Went NDP in 05/09 with Simpson as a Dipper, and i'm sure he's developed a loyal base, i'm just not sure thats enough. The Tyee is calling this a BCL riding expecting Simpson and the NDP to split the vote enough for them to slip in. I'm hoping the opposite happens and the NDP slips in but, wishful thinking. Interestingly The Tyee is also calling OBGH for the BCL with a green/NDP split... i don't think thats going to happen.

http://election.thetyee.ca

[lilTommy]

Its final, the NDP won Coquitlam-Mallardville. Thats some consolation for the NDP i suppose...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/06/05/bc-ndp-coquitlam-recount.html?cmp=rss

[lilTommy]

Poll-by-poll maps are up.

http://election-atlas.ca/bc/

Great stuff, as always. Saanich North and the Islands is quite interesting. The NDP won the riding but looks like they didn't win the poll war. They won very few polls in Saanich North, and won most of the polls in the islands. I would have thought the Greens would have cleaned up in the islands, but it looks like they did better in Saanich North.  FTR the race there was a near perfect 3-way race.

I think the Green was a North Saanich councillor, while the NDP candidate was regional director for the islands