2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Adam Griffin]

Perdue's crushing defeat is a real humiliation for Donald Trump, who not only endorsed him but funneled $2.6 million to his campaign (far more than he has to any other candidate).

No humilation for Trump. Perdue was just a bad Candidate.

Republicans can't win without Trump. Youngkins Win last year seems to be an abberation.

Lagging indicators =/= leading indicators. Trump endorses whomever he thinks will win the vast majority of the time; here, he endorsed the guy who opposed the guy he hated - solely because he thinks the guy he hated was one of the guys who kept him from winning. Perdude couldn't campaign as well, raise money as well or earn votes as well: amazing after all these years that Trump sympathizers can't figure out that all Trump cares about is his ego and "being a winner". The two conflicted here - and he lost as a result! Any time Trump picks someone out of ego rather than expediency of victory, he goes down in flames.

There's a reason most former Presidents don't weigh in on primaries after they leave office: even their own voters don't give a f[inks]k.

[Adam Griffin]

Wow looks like Bordeaux is screwed.

Good riddance.

What's so bad about Bordeaux? I know nothing about her other than she's a Gwinnett County Dem who won 62% of the GA-7 Asian voters in the Latino Decisions-adjacent poll from Nov 2020.

Nothing inherently, but the district - D primary-wise - is still plurality-black - and in this case, black voters are going to vote for the black candidate overwhemingly, giving McBath ~35% of the vote automatically. Then throw in the white-guilt liberals (in a district like this, a very large share are high-income, educated types who feel obligated to vote for "social justice/representation") and you have a commanding majority for McBath regardless of ideology or behavior.

[Adam Griffin]

Don't call it for Raffy yet IMO:

Raffy getting 49.90% currently in Whitfield County (compared to Hice's 36.74%) - whew. There's still possibly a chance he falls below the runoff threshold (more D-leaning turf is outstanding, which means fewer Ds crossing over to vote in GOP primaries than vice-versa compared to statewide figures - which may lower his advantage [from lots of Ds in GOP counties crossing over out of practicality]).

Even if he does fall below 50%+1, unless it's a Cagle-type situation, he'll win a runoff easily.

[Adam Griffin]

WRT KS Amendment: of all (partial) results in thus far, not a single county's "Yes" share is surpassing Trump's 2020 share. The closest right now is Chautauqua County, where "Yes" is underperforming Trump-20's margin by 10 points.

[Adam Griffin]

WRT KS Amendment: of all (partial) results in thus far, not a single county's "Yes" share is surpassing Trump's 2020 share. The closest right now is Chautauqua County, where "Yes" is underperforming Trump-20's margin by 10 points.

Actually I think it's 6.5% in Meade.

I'm just taking the 2-way presidential margin if that matters, but right now in Meade I'm showing a 14-point margin difference (Trump +69 versus Yes +55).

If the best a handful of rural counties can muster is 10-15 points less support for the amendment than they gave Trump - when Trump won KS by 15 points - then this is almost certainly over.

[Adam Griffin]

This is a good time - once again - to remind the unwashed urban D masses that among all cultural and social issues, it isn't gays or religion or immigrants or abortion (or even necessarily race, in most places) that costs us votes in rural areas these days: after all, all of the Democratic-supported positions on these fronts are more popular than the Democratic Party itself in these places.

The one cultural/social issue that directly impacts a sizeable segment of rural America today is GUNS. The vast, vast majority of rurals will never directly be involved with a gay wedding or have an abortion or be affected by immigration, but in many places, a majority do have guns in the home. Talk about these issues the wrong way and suddenly it is perceived as a direct threat by many. Make right on this issue and trust can be rebuilt.  

[Adam Griffin]

Am i really more right wing on this issue than the average Kansas Republican. Like I really am stunned on this

If this turnout is even somewhat reflective of 2020's partisan makeup, then it's safe to say that you are to the right of at least 40% of Trump voters in Kansas.

[Adam Griffin]

This is where I'm getting my numbers:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/kansas/2022-primaries/

It has the totals at 58.8% No to 41.2% Yes.

Maybe the Wikipedia map only shows county results from counties that are 100% reporting? I'm not sure.

That's funny ... The moment you posted your comment, the Wikipedia map has been updated. Interesting that the map URL didn't change.
The results haven't been changed yet, though. I hope that the Wikipedia figures will remain the correct ones, cause should the WP numbers prove themselves true, it would cast a very poor light on the Kansans.

Via Kansas SOS:

3993/3994 Precincts Reporting
NO: 534075 (58.78%)
YES: 374521 (41.22%)

[Adam Griffin]

Worth noting that turnout in the KS primary exceeded both 2010 and 2014 general election turnout, and will wrap up right at 90% of 2018's GE turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

A rather unscientific way to look at things of course, but based on the final margin, the "no" vote outperformed Trump in Kansas by 32.2 points (margin): if every state had the same swing on such a vote compared to the 2020 presidential, this is what it'd look like:

OK & ND only barely fall into the red here.

[Adam Griffin]

MN-1 Current Results:
14/21 Counties Reporting (66.7%)
403/726 Precincts Reporting (55.5%)

30535 - 54.79% - Finstad (R)
23683 - 42.49% - Ettinger (D)
1257 - 2.26% - Others (LMN & GLC)
257 - 0.46% - Write-ins

[Adam Griffin]

MN-1 Current Results:
14/21 Counties Reporting (66.7%)
403/726 Precincts Reporting (55.5%)

30535 - 54.79% - Finstad (R)
23683 - 42.49% - Ettinger (D)
1257 - 2.26% - Others (LMN & GLC)
257 - 0.46% - Write-ins

FWIW, I've looked broadly at what remains outstanding in MN-1.



Of that which remains, in 2020, there were roughly 180k votes total in these precincts, with a raw vote advantage of around 4k votes for Trump. Basically, a wash.

No idea what overall turnout will be, but based on projections from what has been counted, we might be looking at 30% of 2020's turnout (~110-120k votes). That'd give Finstad around 1k additional votes in the end - however, if Democratic turnout has surged, it's possible that the remainder will not only be better for Ettinger than what has been counted, but that he could outright win the outstandings. Very easy to see a single-digit margin result in MN-1.

[Adam Griffin]

Blue Earth, Fillmore and Waseca have dumped. This is now in single-digits (though Finstad's raw vote margin expanded by ~100 votes after that 20k vote dump). This looks to be headed toward a 52-46 win for Finstad if anything close to 2020 patterns hold.

MN-1 Current Results:
17/21 Counties Reporting (81.0%)
519/726 Precincts Reporting (71.5%)

39127 - 53.36% - Finstad (R)
32151 - 43.85% - Ettinger (D)
1637 - 2.23% - Others (LMN & GLC)
408 - 0.56% - Write-ins

Outstanding:

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty crazy:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557236713969385474

If this holds for Olmsted in particular, Ettinger might keep this under 5 points.

[Adam Griffin]

Cheney takes Teton as expected. Anyone ever been there?

Federal employees; likely lots of D crossover in the most DEM county within the most GOP state in the country.

[Adam Griffin]

I know OSR doesn't like to hear it but Romney also lost it because of his fraudulent Mormon Faith.

The Evangelical Base in the South never warmed up to him evident that he got considerable less of the White Evangelical Base Vote compared to Trump or even GWB in 2000 & 2004.

Not to defend bleep-blorp, but as creative of a story as this is, Romney pretty objectively held his own in the Old Confederacy as a whole compared to Trump-16.

Romney won the OC by 8.45 points in 2012 (53.54-45.09), compared to Trump's win of 8.37 in 2016 (52.00-43.63).

In raw vote, Trump gained 880k votes over Romney there, while Clinton gained 675k over Obama-12. Despite gaining 200k net votes over Clinton, the sheer uptick in turnout (39.6m -> 42.5m) resulted in his winning % margin being slightly smaller.

End result: whatever Trump gained, he more or less pissed away elsewhere by forcing roughly as many people to go 3P. Obviously it was enough to flip what was already a very-close Florida result in 2012 (which is the least real Southern state by today's standards; essentially a handful of black Southerners and the rest being pure Yankeedom), but overall, claiming "the South" loved Trump so much more - including his GOP primary support in 2016, where he did 6 points worse as a share of PV than he did in the national primary - is a huge stretch of the truth.