Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Barrow's situation is complex because he's a moderate to conservative Dem and his state appears to be trending left nationally.  If he wants to go statewide, he needs to follow a similar path to Mark Warner and be prepared to drift into line with national D's over the decade if he wins.  I think he is holding out for 2016 and a Hillary run.  He wouldn't need a mentally ill opponent to take that seat in a presidential year.

He could also be eyeing the (presumably) open seat 2018 Gov race.  He would likely have either President Hillary or an R midterm at his back.  He would also get to veto 2021 redistricting if he won, which could be huge for the state party (how viable is holding the GOP under 2/3rds in the legislature?). 

I agree. It was either in one of the earlier articles or from another source that I read the biggest concern for Barrow was that he would not be capable of elevating turnout or enthusiasm among females or African-Americans, which is obvious. In 2016, Hillary and/or a presidential year turnout could put Barrow in for sure. This arrangement makes the most sense: Nunn now, Barrow in '16. If he doesn't run then, though, it's going to be hard for him to win any statewide race. Maybe Governor, like you said, but I think once Georgia is in the position to flip, statewide races are going to become real Democratic-leaning, real fast.

And for holding the Republicans under 2/3rds with the current maps: yes, but not by much. Effectively, you'll probably still have a 'conservative' supermajority until a few of those House districts break out late-decade.

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/13/better-georgia-poll-michelle-nunn-would-be-competi/

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[Adam Griffin]

Better Georgia poll: Jason Carter viable for Gubernatorial run

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http://bettergeorgia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Voters-Concerns-Over-Cronyism-Corruption-Threaten-Deals-Re-Election-Hopes.pdf

[Adam Griffin]

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FWIW, he always struck me as a bit shady - as evidenced by my shifty glances in this 2011 photo.

This is good, though - fundraising and organization at-large have been pretty pathetic over the past two years. Not that they were great before, but the continued drop-offs in fundraising are just intolerable. He deserved to be sacked for that alone.

EDIT: Maybe a URL to the article would be nice.

[Adam Griffin]

A marginally-good read on why no other state but Georgia should matter when it comes to Democrats fostering the next swing state:

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[Adam Griffin]

At this rate, the DPG is on track to be completely broke by the end of the summer:

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/jun/27/georgia-democratic-party-only-has-15000-bank/

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[Adam Griffin]

I observed some silly talk a bit ago in this thread about how someone like Hillary couldn't win Georgia. So here's a spreadsheet (well, an image of a spreadsheet) that will let you compare scenarios for 2016 (1% given to third-parties)!



I couldn't include every single one, but hey, isn't 99 enough? Also highlighted are the two closest scenarios to 2008 & 2012. If you consider the likely composition of the electorate in 2016 (58-59% white) with Obama's 2008 performance, you'll suddenly realize that someone like Hillary could win the state with 50-51% of the vote - and that's just on momentum - an actual campaign in Georgia would only increase the likelihood of Dems winning the state.

If a Dem can get more than 25% of the white vote in Georgia in a presidential election, it's over.

[Adam Griffin]

Well thank God that Dalton will be getting rid of him one way or another!

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http://daltondailycitizen.com/local/x405448574/Pennington-files-to-run-for-governor/

[Adam Griffin]

What don't you like about his tenure as Mayor? Previous posts on the matter in this thread were rather favorable towards him, though against Deal, anything looks favorable by comparison.

He has been a rather rigid ideologue in how he approaches the governance of the city - far more so than Deal as Governor, who (for what it's worth) understands that some moderation is necessary. In his first year, he did an excellent job at alienating many of those who worked at City Hall and fellow elected officials through his brash attitude and lack of wanting to compromise. He is constantly parroting the same talking point whenever he discusses his (one and only) success - he cut government revenues by 20% and balanced the budget. The budget was barely in the deficit beforehand, so the vast majority of what was cut was not necessary in order to achieve that result.

The only problem is that Dalton has grown by 8% over the past five years and unemployment has went from 5.8% when he took office in Jan 2008 to 15.6% in Nov 2010 to 11.4% as of today. No new public investment (save for a $4,000,000 community center) and no end in sight to the amount of cuts he would like to see in the future. The county did the same thing regarding taxes, but realized this year that property taxes had to be raised once again to continue paying the bills - a massive 40% hike in one year. Pennington and the City Council didn't seem to get the message.

Dalton is heavily reliant upon the carpet and textile industry, and the housing collapse certainly caused the massive spikes in unemployment - the Dalton MSA was the second-hardest hit in the country between 2008-2010. It's not to say that this was his fault, but his part-time management of the city has left a lot to be desired. One major company is bringing 2,000 manufacturing jobs to the city, but this is an off-shoot of one of the major textile companies that has been based here for decades. In other words, he has attracted virtually zilch in new investments and business opportunities for the city. No one here is optimistic about the city's future and if asked about his "successes", most will laugh and proceed to tell you about how terrible the town is and how few opportunities there are remaining outside what textiles jobs are left.

The worst thing that could happen to David Pennington is for Nathan Deal to begin using the comments and thoughts of Daltonians against him. If he's smart (and he is), it'll happen.

EDIT: If there's too much rambling above, don't mind me: this may be the beginning of brainstorming for a nice dossier of generalized assessments.

[Adam Griffin]

Some of the Georgia Democrats on this forum might want to consider not passing up this opportunity to rebuild their state party:

I'll get the chance to personally lobby my county's two state committee representatives tomorrow about this. I think each of the candidates brings a certain unique skill-set to the table - Stoner is popular among moderates and of course brings that youthful vigor, Porter is popular among both moderate and conservative Democrats and would be the best for the massive fundraising efforts that are needed, Squires knows how to run campaigns but otherwise I do not know much about her, and Hadley is very focused on grassroots operations and expanding the playing field outside metro Atlanta.

As of now, I am leaning toward RJ. I'm biased, as RJ is the only one that I know personally, but his dedication to county affairs is something that is truly needed in Georgia (even the larger, more Democratic counties currently have relatively weak Democratic committees/organization). He has taken the time to visit us on multiple occasions and was even gracious enough to sponsor me for the latest YD convention in April. Nolesfan mentioned earlier that he often butted heads with the DPG leadership: true, but when you look at how most of the DPG leadership has operated, it speaks more about their shortcomings than it does his.

Nunn is in, she'll formally announce tomorrow.

Now she can go in my sig!

[Adam Griffin]

Attention whoring: It was great to meet Michelle Nunn tonight in Dalton, as she came up for a private meeting with about twenty of us. I'm really excited about the prospects of her candidacy - much more so than I was just a few weeks ago - as we were able to discuss both strategic and values-based goals for the campaign ahead. This is a candidate that is forgoing none of the state when it comes to her message and enthusiasm.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrat Stokes to challenge Deal for Ga. governor

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Who?

[Adam Griffin]

THIS JUST IN FROM NEWNAN, GA - DUBOSE PORTER WINS DPG CHAIR ELECTION ON SECOND BALLOT

A lot of deals were made last-minute - Doug Stoner seemed like a shoe-in based on chatter throughout the state cmte members going into this.

[Adam Griffin]

THIS JUST IN FROM NEWNAN, GA - DUBOSE PORTER WINS DPG CHAIR ELECTION ON SECOND BALLOT

A lot of deals were made last-minute - Doug Stoner seemed like a shoe-in based on chatter throughout the state cmte members going into this.

Who is Dubose Porter?  And what do you think of him?  Do you think he can position the GA Democratic Party in the medium-long term to take over the state? 

From what I know, he's a great fundraiser.

Yeah, among other things. Quite the media mogul in middle Georgia, served in the State House for almost 30 years and minority leader. He has the connections and the ability to revive the party, but the biggest concern throughout all of this was whether he'll be a full-time Chair or not. It's good to see a rural take the seat, though.

She's 59? If that photo was taken within the last 15 years... Wow.

She'll actually be 60 tomorrow (from 2010). She apparently bombed at the State Committee meeting/election, though (no prepared speech).

[Adam Griffin]

Boom. An empire-sized map for the Empire State of the South.

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, congrats; wonderful work.

Thanks! I actually got the inspiration from your LA map, but it took me a few months to overcome the dread of making it.

In other news, I've been hearing speculation that Jim Marshal might run for Governor! Anyone have info on that?

I haven't heard anything recently, but that doesn't mean much with my ear so close to the municipal ground as of late. He could be a pretty viable dark horse at this point, though.

[Adam Griffin]

GREAT NEWS!

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http://www.ajc.com/news/news/ajc-poll-support-for-gay-marriage-in-georgia-is-gr/nZ349/

This is hard to believe - I really want to see this poll's results. Stupid subscription won't let me view any more than just the first paragraph, though, so I don't know the numbers just yet.

[Adam Griffin]

This is completely unrelated to anything any previous post might have said but here's this great poll about ice cream I just found, it certainly isn't from behind a paywall because posting that here would possibly be illegal

Question 1: “Do you think it should be legal or illegal for ice cream to be legal in Georgia?”
Legal: 48% (strongly 30%, somewhat 17%)
Illegal: 43% (strongly 38%, somewhat 5%)
Don’t know/No answer: 9%

Question 2: “Has your opinion toward ice cream changed over the past few years, or not?”
Yes, has changed: 16%
No, stayed the same: 83%
Don’t know/No answer: 1%

59% of six-figure income earners like ice cream (a quarter of them having decided so in the last two years), two-thirds of adults under 40 like ice cream while olds hate it by a similar margin

u (and 48% of GA is OK w/ that)

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/07/your-daily-jolt-jimmy-carters-grandson-tests-water/


State Sen. Jason Carter looks like he is testing the waters for a run against Deal.

Well, that's a done Deal.

Seriously though, I don't know much about Carter, but he seems a lot more savvy than his grandfather. Hopefully he can do well.

I'm not overly optimistic. Carter has never polled well in hypothetical gubernatorial match-ups; even though he has name recognition, not many people recognize his full name (if that makes sense).

Also, glorious news!

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http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/08/michelle-nunn-raises-17-million-us-senate-campaign/

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/07/your-daily-jolt-jimmy-carters-grandson-tests-water/


State Sen. Jason Carter looks like he is testing the waters for a run against Deal.

Well, that's a done Deal.

Seriously though, I don't know much about Carter, but he seems a lot more savvy than his grandfather. Hopefully he can do well.

I'm not overly optimistic. Carter has never polled well in hypothetical gubernatorial match-ups; even though he has name recognition, not many people recognize his full name (if that makes sense).

Also, glorious news!

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http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/08/michelle-nunn-raises-17-million-us-senate-campaign/

Are you rooting for Nunn?

Of course (I'm not an actual Republican).

[Adam Griffin]

Guys if Deal gets arrested what do you think would happen?

As much as I'd love to see him go down, I hope it could wait until after May. It'd be highly likely that Pennington could become the front-runner in such a circumstance. He's already destroyed my city - no need to give him keys to the entire state. Pennington makes deal look like a socialist.


Fun maps time!

What would narrow Carter and Nunn victories look like? I'm sure there'd be some areas where each would over and under-perform: maybe y'all can help refine these? Uniform swings in these cases:



Carter - 50%
Deal - 47%



Nunn - 50%
Broun - 47%

[Adam Griffin]

Well, is there a slight chance to regain majority in the state house and state senate in Georgia?
Has someone PVI for state districts please?

There's no way for Georgia Dems to get a majority in either chamber this decade. I'd say that there are around 10 House seats and maybe 4 Senate seats that could be flipped within the next couple of cycles. In 2020, it might be possible to get the House to 105 R - 75 D; Senate to 35 R - 20 D.

I've got a DR map of the House districts somewhere - I'll see if I can find it.

[Adam Griffin]

posted without comment

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/10/26/georgia-man-runs-into-burning-home-to-get-beer

oh yeah well

http://timesfreepress.com/news/2013/oct/22/police-man-yells-spits-and-strips/

[Adam Griffin]

Has someone PVI for state districts please?

Well, I'm an idiot. I calculated these House districts incorrectly, unfortunately, due to my sobriety. I'm too tired to re-do right now, so I'll get it updated correctly later. The actual PVIs are just a couple points off, but you'll get an idea of how much the northern part of the state is relatively off-limits at this point. These are based on 2008 aggregate vote totals; I'm sure much of this marked is even more Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

The NRSC better be paying attention to this:

U.S. Rep. Paul Broun (R-Athens) won the straw poll asking who should replace retiring U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss at a meet-and-greet this week that attracted a crowd of about 200.

The straw poll saw 58 votes go to Broun, 17 to former Secretary of State Karen Handel, 12 to U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Savannah), 11 to Eugene Yu, 11 to U.S. Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-Marietta) and three votes to Derrick Grayson.

The event was organized by Jason Halliburton of east Cobb, 1st vice chairman of the Georgia Black Republican Council and CEO of Halliburton Strategic Affairs.

Read more: The Marietta Daily Journal - Rep Paul Broun wins straw poll with 58 votes

Gingrey has been really underwhelming lately. I thought he might really be a dark horse for the loons, because he's basically a Broun who usually knows when to keep his mouth shut. Polls seem to be saying Broun, Handel and Kingston. So far, this race's dynamics make this continue to look like a worst-case scenario for Republicans. Gah, if there was only something else that could make a full slate of statewide elected candidates and old-time good vibes even more viable next year...

Jason Carter is in.

Oh, there it is.