Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[windjammer]

The GA dems of this forum, would it be possible to vote in the primaries for Paul Broun and to urge your friends to the same thing?

[greenforest32]

Well you trended 2 more points to the left and were about 11 points right of center. With all things being equal, Georgia would be about 56-44. I'd say you're about as close as Indiana, Arizona, and South Carolina. You have a ways to go and Obama being black helped him in the peach state tremendously. You know I love how liberals say "it's just a few elections away" when it comes to southern states and Arizona. Actually, both parties are guilty of wishful thinking, but the Democrats do it worse. I see my party do it with New Jersey but unless some of the liberals migrate back to NY, it will remain a purplish blue.

This is a little OT, but CT, not NJ is by far the best R opportunity for a new swing state in the Northeast.  Look how hard CT swung toward Romney as opposed to the Obama swing in NJ. CT and GA could both be legit purple in the 2020's if social issues subside.

Was the 2008-2012 CT swing really that hard though?

2008: 60.6% D, 38.2% R, 1.2% other
2012: 58.1% D, 40.7% R, 1.2% other

The raw votes for Republicans didn't change much compared to the drop for Democrats. 2008 was 998k Obama v 629k McCain while 2012 was 905k Obama v 635k Romney. CT's new same-day registration law starts this year too so it will be interesting to see how that affects turn-out in 2014 and on.

Connecticut is surprisingly ethnically diverse too: 70.3% non-hispanic white in 2012.

[Miles]

An article about the key issue of the GOP Senate primary: abortion.

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[Adam Griffin]

I observed some silly talk a bit ago in this thread about how someone like Hillary couldn't win Georgia. So here's a spreadsheet (well, an image of a spreadsheet) that will let you compare scenarios for 2016 (1% given to third-parties)!



I couldn't include every single one, but hey, isn't 99 enough? Also highlighted are the two closest scenarios to 2008 & 2012. If you consider the likely composition of the electorate in 2016 (58-59% white) with Obama's 2008 performance, you'll suddenly realize that someone like Hillary could win the state with 50-51% of the vote - and that's just on momentum - an actual campaign in Georgia would only increase the likelihood of Dems winning the state.

If a Dem can get more than 25% of the white vote in Georgia in a presidential election, it's over.

[Adam Griffin]

Well thank God that Dalton will be getting rid of him one way or another!

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http://daltondailycitizen.com/local/x405448574/Pennington-files-to-run-for-governor/

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What don't you like about his tenure as Mayor? Previous posts on the matter in this thread were rather favorable towards him, though against Deal, anything looks favorable by comparison.

[Adam Griffin]

What don't you like about his tenure as Mayor? Previous posts on the matter in this thread were rather favorable towards him, though against Deal, anything looks favorable by comparison.

He has been a rather rigid ideologue in how he approaches the governance of the city - far more so than Deal as Governor, who (for what it's worth) understands that some moderation is necessary. In his first year, he did an excellent job at alienating many of those who worked at City Hall and fellow elected officials through his brash attitude and lack of wanting to compromise. He is constantly parroting the same talking point whenever he discusses his (one and only) success - he cut government revenues by 20% and balanced the budget. The budget was barely in the deficit beforehand, so the vast majority of what was cut was not necessary in order to achieve that result.

The only problem is that Dalton has grown by 8% over the past five years and unemployment has went from 5.8% when he took office in Jan 2008 to 15.6% in Nov 2010 to 11.4% as of today. No new public investment (save for a $4,000,000 community center) and no end in sight to the amount of cuts he would like to see in the future. The county did the same thing regarding taxes, but realized this year that property taxes had to be raised once again to continue paying the bills - a massive 40% hike in one year. Pennington and the City Council didn't seem to get the message.

Dalton is heavily reliant upon the carpet and textile industry, and the housing collapse certainly caused the massive spikes in unemployment - the Dalton MSA was the second-hardest hit in the country between 2008-2010. It's not to say that this was his fault, but his part-time management of the city has left a lot to be desired. One major company is bringing 2,000 manufacturing jobs to the city, but this is an off-shoot of one of the major textile companies that has been based here for decades. In other words, he has attracted virtually zilch in new investments and business opportunities for the city. No one here is optimistic about the city's future and if asked about his "successes", most will laugh and proceed to tell you about how terrible the town is and how few opportunities there are remaining outside what textiles jobs are left.

The worst thing that could happen to David Pennington is for Nathan Deal to begin using the comments and thoughts of Daltonians against him. If he's smart (and he is), it'll happen.

EDIT: If there's too much rambling above, don't mind me: this may be the beginning of brainstorming for a nice dossier of generalized assessments.

[nolesfan2011]

Michelle Nunn meeting Obama soon http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/michelle-nunn-georgia-obama-94045.html

Also in the race for state Dem party chair, Dubose Porter, RJ Hadley, Mary Squires and Doug Stoner are all in full bore.

I'm backing Porter myself with Squires also acceptable, the other 2 have issues. Porter has enough fundraising juice I think to fix that part of stuff and he is one of the few who actually cares about reaching out to the rest of the state rather than arrogantly alienating it.  He can save the party and at least give them some semblance of outreach to the rural areas of the state.

Of course the latte drinking transplant Atlanta "liberals" don't like him for that, dislike his conservative social issue positions, so who knows if he will get anywhere.

Squires isn't bad but I don't see her having the recognition, network and fundraising to really improve the DPG standing, she is nice and moderate though with business background. (amusing note that Dubose ex-wife Carol Dodd Porter endorsed Squires according to an email that was sent out, I like them both still)

Stoner is too conservative for me and he just lost re-election, not sure what you gain with him, fundraising not great either, and he's an Atlanta metro person.

Hadley is not experienced enough, has little or no fundraising recognition that I know of, and is kind of divisive within the party.

[Frodo]

Some of the Georgia Democrats on this forum might want to consider not passing up this opportunity to rebuild their state party:

Georgia Democrats Look for New Leader

By Abby Livingston
Roll Call Staff
July 15, 2013, 4:07 p.m.

Georgia Democrats are hunting for a new state party chairman who can put behind them the financial and alleged personal legal problems that plagued their former leader, Michael Berlon.

In the past few weeks, a handful of Democrats announced their campaigns for the top job. But they all suffered recent electoral setbacks — a reflection of the party’s troubles statewide in Georgia. The contenders include:

• Former House Minority Leader DuBose Porter unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2010 and has strong ties to the Nunn family, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He has solid support within the state committee, according to a Georgia Democratic insider.

• Former state Sen. Mary Squires unsuccessfully ran for insurance commissioner in 2010.

• Rockdale County Tax Commissioner R.J. Hadley is a grass-roots favorite and unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2010.

• Former state Sen. Doug Stoner lost his seat recently after it was redrawn by the GOP-controlled legislature.

But the field is far from set and others could join the race, cautioned Georgia Democratic operatives. The election is scheduled for Aug. 31.

[RogueBeaver]

Nunn is in, she'll formally announce tomorrow.

[badgate]

Game on!

[Adam Griffin]

Some of the Georgia Democrats on this forum might want to consider not passing up this opportunity to rebuild their state party:

I'll get the chance to personally lobby my county's two state committee representatives tomorrow about this. I think each of the candidates brings a certain unique skill-set to the table - Stoner is popular among moderates and of course brings that youthful vigor, Porter is popular among both moderate and conservative Democrats and would be the best for the massive fundraising efforts that are needed, Squires knows how to run campaigns but otherwise I do not know much about her, and Hadley is very focused on grassroots operations and expanding the playing field outside metro Atlanta.

As of now, I am leaning toward RJ. I'm biased, as RJ is the only one that I know personally, but his dedication to county affairs is something that is truly needed in Georgia (even the larger, more Democratic counties currently have relatively weak Democratic committees/organization). He has taken the time to visit us on multiple occasions and was even gracious enough to sponsor me for the latest YD convention in April. Nolesfan mentioned earlier that he often butted heads with the DPG leadership: true, but when you look at how most of the DPG leadership has operated, it speaks more about their shortcomings than it does his.

Nunn is in, she'll formally announce tomorrow.

Now she can go in my sig!

[windjammer]

The GA dems, opinion of Sam Nunn?

[windjammer]

For Cook: the georgia senate race is now lean republican.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I don't see the GA Democrats beating Deal in the 2014 Governor's race or winning Chambliss' open US Senate seat, but 2018 will be the big test for them to be relevant again.

[windjammer]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-question-suggestions.html

PPP will poll Georgia next week.

[windjammer]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 12 h
Sam Nunn has a 56/12 favorability rating in Georgia

[Tender Branson]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 12 h
Sam Nunn has a 56/12 favorability rating in Georgia

Not surprising.

I guess the olds in that poll will see him strongly favorable, while the youngs have not much clue who he is (many undecided).

[Tender Branson]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 12 h
Sam Nunn has a 56/12 favorability rating in Georgia

Not surprising.

I guess the olds in that poll will see him strongly favorable, while the youngs have not much clue who he is (many undecided).

PPP's crosstabs on this are very weird:

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The two age groups 18-29 and 30-45 make no sense.

[TX Conservative Dem]

2018 is the GA Democrats' best bet in taking back the governorship....with Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed (D) as their standard bearer.

Which is why Reed won't run in 2014.

[Bacon King]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 12 h
Sam Nunn has a 56/12 favorability rating in Georgia

Not surprising.

I guess the olds in that poll will see him strongly favorable, while the youngs have not much clue who he is (many undecided).

PPP's crosstabs on this are very weird:

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The two age groups 18-29 and 30-45 make no sense.

It makes sense. There's a huge drop in name recognition in the 30 to 45 group (the 75% undecided and all) because Sam Nunn's last election was 1990. Anyone who is younger than 41 has never even seen Nunn's name on a ballot, while anyone old enough to have ever voted for him will certainly remember him for his quarter-century in the Senate.

The contrasting result for the youngest demographic is probably just noise from the low sample size (only 11% of respondents were in this age group). Maybe also just recognizing him for the things named after him too?

[Bacon King]

I posted this in a poll thread, but I made a long off-topic segue into my observations regarding the attitude of rural voters towards the Democratic Party. I figured I'd post it here in the Megathread if anyone would like to read it

I'd argue Handel lacks name rec, but Nunn doesn't have name rec either. At least, not for her first name.

I would bet actual money that Handel has the highest name recognition, by far, out of the entire field. She was very visible in the 2010 gubernatorial campaign, and before that she was a very prominent figure in Atlanta/Fulton politics (she was the Chairman of the Fulton County Board of Commissioners, representing a population about a third larger than a Congressional district). She's also the only candidate who's held statewide office. The only candidate who would even come close is Broun and that's just because he makes the news so often whenever he sticks his foot in his mouth.

And yes, Nunn has no name recognition herself, but that family name will carry her far. I talk politics with my family in rural south Georgia because they're a good barometer for for the area's opinions (I confidently predicted Barrow's reelection last year because of their attitude towards him, for example). Talking with these relatives a couple of weeks ago, they were very receptive - even enthusiastic - about the idea of voting for "Sam Nunn's kid," in a way they'd never be about any other statewide Democratic candidate these days.

These are the sort of former blue dog Dixiecrat voters who switched parties when, from their perspective, the Democratic party stopped caring about people like them. They basically all agree with that one Zell Miller line, "I didn't leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me," except their opinion of Zell himself isn't necessarily very positive (they remember him for his habitual flip-flopping triangulation that gave him the title "Zig-Zag Zell" and saw his 2004 persona as just another switch). But they still think of themselves as Democrats, in spirit if not in name.

On the local level, most elections in the area are decided in the Democratic Primary. I could point out plenty of 70% Romney counties that have never once elected a Republican to any county office. These rural voters are totally fine voting for a Democrat- they just have to be the right kind of Democrat. They hear the name "Nunn" and they remember Sam Nunn, who in their eyes was definitely the right kind of Democrat, the kind of politician that really stood up for people like them. Sure, they don't know Michelle Nunn- but they know her daddy, and that's enough to know she's good people.

[windjammer]

Is your family really conservative?
A Nunn victory would be great, Georgia is trending dem so she would be in a better environment 6 years later.

[Bacon King]

Is your family really conservative?
A Nunn victory would be great, Georgia is trending dem so she would be in a better environment 6 years later.

The relatives I refer to are very conservative, yes, but they're not outspoken ideologues or anything. For example, I recall one of my uncles expressing distaste for Paul Broun after he controversially remarked that evolution and the big bang were "lies straight from the pit of hell." He actually completely agreed with what Broun said, but he thought Broun was pandering and "just trying to get people riled up" since, in his view, there's no genuine reason for a politician to address such an obvious truth as if it were something controversial. They're thoughtful people, but the culture down there is very different, leading to a very foreign worldview for me (and probably most of the forum).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is your family really conservative?
A Nunn victory would be great, Georgia is trending dem so she would be in a better environment 6 years later.

The relatives I refer to are very conservative, yes, but they're not outspoken ideologues or anything. For example, I recall one of my uncles expressing distaste for Paul Broun after he controversially remarked that evolution and the big bang were "lies straight from the pit of hell." He actually completely agreed with what Broun said, but he thought Broun was pandering and "just trying to get people riled up" since, in his view, there's no genuine reason for a politician to address such an obvious truth as if it were something controversial. They're thoughtful people, but the culture down there is very different, leading to a very foreign worldview for me (and probably most of the forum).

Except that it is neither truth, nor obvious and especially amongst the Democratic party, the era of tolerating such opinions is long over since they certainly don't need the state or even these voters to win as long as Atlanta keeps growing. Therefore, they might hate Broun's style and vote against him because of it, but as long as the Democratic Party keeps going the direction that it is going, people with such views will keep voting Republican in federal races because they are the lesser of two evils when it comes to sharing that worldview. The Democrats could change that, but they would have to change their style and the way they look down upon such people in order to do that. Demographic trends discourage that change because the present view is that in four to six years, they won't need them at all to win Georgia.