Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.

[Keystone Phil]

One of the top stories on Yahoo! News - McCain's risky play for PA - http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081012/pl_politico/14495


Eh, what do I know?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil... I like you... but I just can't agree with you on PA.

It's not a 100% futile effort for McCain to be in PA because there could be other factors that tighten the race nationally... but if he is siphoning resources to PA when Obama has a significant lead in the polls while starving places like Florida and Virginia, he loses the election.

Again, it could tighten... there's time... and at this point he doesn't have anything to lose by focusing on PA rather than defending FL and VA (offense is always a better game when you have nothing to lose)... but still, I'm pretty optimistic that it wont.

And it will be noted that nothing in that post has to do with the dynamics of the race in PA.

[Keystone Phil]

The dynamics are pretty simple:  It's the economy, stupid.

And what happens if that's not the front page story in three weeks?

[Keystone Phil]

lol

No substantive argument against what I'm saying? Shocking! Give us a call when you have...well...anything to contribute.

Phil, out of curiousity, do you still believe that
1) McCain has a realistic shot at taking PA (barring some extremely monumental event such as attempted assassination/major terrorist attack before election day) and
2) McCain is making the correct decision by turning PA into his most heavily-funded state (at the expense of the aforementioned Bush states, where Obama is largely outspending him.)

1) Not too realistic now.

2) He should be spending the most in a state like CO, VA or FL.

[Keystone Phil]

But in a striking blow to my anecdotes, someone just a few houses down from me had the audacity to put up an Obama sign. They must have been getting worried since McCain signs are popping up everyday. 

[Keystone Phil]

And since I'm on a roll today...

I just got a call from my Grandmother that lives in South Philly. She wanted to let me know that there was so much stuff for McCain in today's Columbus Day parade down there. She was also shocked to see so many McCain signs in windows down there. It's shocking because she lives in the heart of the South Philly Democratic machine. I tried explaining to her why it's different this time but she still couldn't get over it.

Not quite sure what you're trying to extrapolate from this article. That McCain has a chance at winning the state? While down 6-8 nationally? Have there been any polls showing a single digit Obama lead in October?

The point is that it's not over and these types of voters are exactly why it isn't over.

[Keystone Phil]

The point is that it's not over and these types of voters are exactly why it isn't over.

lol, it's a waste of time to even bother, really. I'll just shut up and let the election day results do the talking

Ok, good. In the meantime, we'll just resort to "LOL @ the idiot. You'll be proven wrong on Election day."

A very angry gay, black man just walked into my office and demanded a Barack Obama sign.

FYI

Democratic voter...voting Democratic again...in a safe Democratic state. Good!

[Keystone Phil]

A very angry gay, black man just walked into my office and demanded a Barack Obama sign.

FYI

Democratic voter...voting Democratic again...in a safe Democratic state. Good!

His rage is boiling over to other voters, Phil. You should know these things.

If you guys don't agree with my analysis, leave it at a simple disagreement. I'm tired of posting my thoughts (which are backed up by others) only to have it met with sarcasm or "LOL KEEP DREAMING, PHIL!"

[Keystone Phil]

By this logic in Kootenai County Obama will get very close to winning as there isn't much enthusiasm for McCain here.(as many Obama signs and bumper stickers as McCain ones)

I've backed up my commentary with more than just visible excitment for a certain candidate.

There is also a lot of coverage (within political circles) concerning the young Obama fanatics marching into the city like they own the place. They're not cooperating with ward leaders and committeepeople. There have been several reports of them actually destroying McCain signs on private property up here in NE Philly. Word is that some local Democratic leaders are working out ticket splitting deals (vote McCain for President and Democratic for other statewide/local races).

Keep acting like you rule the world, guys. It's helping my side.

[Keystone Phil]

And Santorum is going to upset Casey

LOL YEA

Now do you care to counter anything I have said (which has been backed up by several others including Obama supporting Democrats)?

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7TgDanmWkg

I'm not a fan of anecdotal evidence, but if Palin is getting booed by hockey fans, it means McCain is in deep, deep trouble.

these are the same fans that booed and pelted santa clause...

Well, not really the same fans. Santa was booed and pelted at an Eagles game. 

But yes, we're a tough town with tough fans. Consider that and the fact that the reaction is mixed and your "argument" means nothing.

[Keystone Phil]

The fact that the boos were audible, even if the reaction was mixed, given the crowd, is a bad sign for Palin.

Uh...a very small minority can make themselves heard, pal.

  I don't think Phil is arguing that 100% of white working class whites love Palin....

I'm not but I think I've moved past the idea that my critics have any interest in being fair towards me in their criticism.

[Keystone Phil]

The fact that the boos were audible, even if the reaction was mixed, given the crowd, is a bad sign for Palin.

Uh...a very small minority can make themselves heard, pal.

  I don't think Phil is arguing that 100% of white working class whites love Palin....

I'm not but I think I've moved past the idea that my critics have any interest in being fair towards me in their criticism.

one of the many problems with anecdotal evidence is that it's so incredibly subjective that you can choose to ignore it if it doesn't support your position.

My evidence isn't incredibly subjective. Again, you and almost everyone else have ignored what several Obama supporting Democrats are saying about this area.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil,

I'm curious, and I don't mean that in the sarcastic I already think I have an answer to what may seem like a rhetorical question sort of way, but what sort of percentages does McCain need to pull in the regions of the state to win it?

I don't know what percentages but I do know that Kerry was able to pull just over 60% in the NE and he also kicked ass in South Philly. Obama is not getting near that.

[Keystone Phil]

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

If you can prove to me that Obama is getting 140,000 votes (or more) elsewhere, I'll concede that the results here won't make a difference.

And Santorum is going to upset Casey

LOL YEA

Now do you care to counter anything I have said (which has been backed up by several others including Obama supporting Democrats)?

Just like how the networks called Pennsylvania for Casey shortly after the polls closed, the networks will call Pennsylvania for Obama the minute the polls close there.

That's nice.

Phil,

I'm curious, and I don't mean that in the sarcastic I already think I have an answer to what may seem like a rhetorical question sort of way, but what sort of percentages does McCain need to pull in the regions of the state to win it?

I don't know what percentages but I do know that Kerry was able to pull just over 60% in the NE and he also kicked ass in South Philly. Obama is getting near that.

I assume a typo here.  But, is there any information about McCain in the areas he desperately needs to win or at least run close behind Obama in?  SE Burbs, LV, SW PA?  I can't imagine it looks good right now...now show me the national race tightening up...that may be different.

What are you assuming to be a typo?

[Keystone Phil]

"obama is getting near that"

I assume you meant he wasnt getting so close...or maybe it wasnt a typo at all...?

Oh...right. Yeah, he's "not getting near that."

[Keystone Phil]

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

If you can prove to me that Obama is getting 140,000 votes (or more) elsewhere, I'll concede that the results here won't make a difference.

The point of that statement was that Obama can't be losing 140k votes in that area alone. Hell the entire population of NE Philly is only 300k-450k depending on definition.

...

What brings up the random 140,000 votes?

[Keystone Phil]

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

If you can prove to me that Obama is getting 140,000 votes (or more) elsewhere, I'll concede that the results here won't make a difference.

The point of that statement was that Obama can't be losing 140k votes in that area alone. Hell the entire population of NE Philly is only 300k-450k depending on definition.

...

What brings up the random 140,000 votes?

Kerry's margin of victory.

McCain is going to cut into that margin elsewhere, my friend.

[Keystone Phil]

Let's hear Keystone Phil's anecdotes about THAT race.

Still can't argue anything concerning this race?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

^ Goldmine candidate

[Keystone Phil]

Thirdly, polls out of the 3rd district show Kathy Dahlkemper (D) with a lead.  

Uh, no. That was...what...one poll and wasn't it an internal?

[Keystone Phil]

Thirdly, polls out of the 3rd district show Kathy Dahlkemper (D) with a lead.  

Uh, no. That was...what...one poll and wasn't it an internal?

No, right-leaning SurveyUSA.  http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3246

Right leaning? LOL

Ok but whatever the case, that's one poll with a history of inaccuracy.

[Keystone Phil]

I'll just use this thread for random anecdotal evidence...

I visited my Grandparents tonight. My Grandmother was telling me about a certain someone she is friendly with who stopped to talk to her at a local diner. All I'll say about this certain someone is that he or she is a major Democratic ward leader here in the NE Philly and this person also holds elected office.

The person asked my Grandmother, "So be honest. Who do you want?" My Grandmother told her that she's for McCain. The Democratic ward leader responded, "I wish there were more people like you."

[Keystone Phil]

I'll just use this thread for random anecdotal evidence...

I visited my Grandparents tonight. My Grandmother was telling me about a certain someone she is friendly with who stopped to talk to her at a local diner. All I'll say about this certain someone is that he or she is a major Democratic ward leader here in the NE Philly and this person also holds elected office.

The person asked my Grandmother, "So be honest. Who do you want?" My Grandmother told her that she's for McCain. The Democratic ward leader responded, "I wish there were more people like you."

It's official! Give the state to McCain.

It's past midnight! If Mommy and Daddy catch you up this late, no snacks tomorrow night!

[Keystone Phil]

Anectodal evidence=fail

Give me a run down as to the Democratic ground game in NE Philly (an area that gave Kerry nearly 60% of the vote).

[Keystone Phil]

If Obama wins by more than Kerry's margin then Phil is gonna get a lot of heat from this thread.

LOL

Obama winning by more than Kerry's margin in NE Philly? Yeah...uh...right...


Anyway, this is proof that you're new here, pal. I always get heat from the trolls. They're obsessed with me. I kind of take pride in knowing that the filth of our fine forum hate me.

I think Phil may have a point about his area of the city, but that says nothing at all about PA overall.

Says nothing at all? Do these votes not get counted in the statewide total?