Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.

[Keystone Phil]

One of the top stories on Yahoo! News - McCain's risky play for PA - http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081012/pl_politico/14495


Eh, what do I know?

[Ban my account ffs!]

Phil... I like you... but I just can't agree with you on PA.

It's not a 100% futile effort for McCain to be in PA because there could be other factors that tighten the race nationally... but if he is siphoning resources to PA when Obama has a significant lead in the polls while starving places like Florida and Virginia, he loses the election.

Again, it could tighten... there's time... and at this point he doesn't have anything to lose by focusing on PA rather than defending FL and VA (offense is always a better game when you have nothing to lose)... but still, I'm pretty optimistic that it wont.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil... I like you... but I just can't agree with you on PA.

It's not a 100% futile effort for McCain to be in PA because there could be other factors that tighten the race nationally... but if he is siphoning resources to PA when Obama has a significant lead in the polls while starving places like Florida and Virginia, he loses the election.

Again, it could tighten... there's time... and at this point he doesn't have anything to lose by focusing on PA rather than defending FL and VA (offense is always a better game when you have nothing to lose)... but still, I'm pretty optimistic that it wont.

And it will be noted that nothing in that post has to do with the dynamics of the race in PA.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The dynamics are pretty simple:  It's the economy, stupid.

[Ty440]

We pay attention to our own polls," Mark Salter, a senior McCain aide told reporters Saturday. "Pennsylvania looked much better than Michigan."


McCain should no longer quit in PA, anymore than he should have quit when Romney was leading by double digits in New Hampshire

[opebo]

Alas, Snowguy, he's counting on racism to bring Florida and Virginia home - without even having to have his campaign there to spew it.  

I think KP is probably right - PA is winnable on this front for McCain, and it is, probably, his best shot:

[Keystone Phil]

The dynamics are pretty simple:  It's the economy, stupid.

And what happens if that's not the front page story in three weeks?

[exopolitician]

lol

[anti_leftist]

We pay attention to our own polls," Mark Salter, a senior McCain aide told reporters Saturday. "Pennsylvania looked much better than Michigan."


McCain should no longer quit in PA, anymore than he should have quit when Romney was leading by double digits in New Hampshire

That's a ridiculously flawed analogy. NH was basically McCain's only chance to register a pivotal momentum-building first victory (since Ethanolia was a lost cause) and campaigning there didn't really hinder his chances anyway else due to the staggered nature of the primaries. By devoting more resources to PA than any other state, McCain is letting Obama outspend him badly in pivotal swing states won by Bush that McCain needs, exasperating an already significant fundraising deficit. Furthermore, the polls have consistently showing Obama with double digit leads in PA, so all that money/manpower isn't even producing any tangible gains for McCain there (even if it did, the gains would need to be tremendous to justify the attention McCain is lavishing on it IMO.) As I said in a poll I created a few days ago, McCain NEEDS to start abandoning PA NOW (he can do it quietly or gradually to avoid horrible PR), but some resources need to be diverted immediately to the states that would win him the election, namely OH, FL, VA, NC, MO, NV, CO. The opportunity costs of his current PA operations are mind-boggling.

[Ty440]

We pay attention to our own polls," Mark Salter, a senior McCain aide told reporters Saturday. "Pennsylvania looked much better than Michigan."


McCain should no longer quit in PA, anymore than he should have quit when Romney was leading by double digits in New Hampshire

That's a ridiculously flawed analogy. NH was basically McCain's only chance to register a pivotal momentum-building first victory (since Ethanolia was a lost cause) and campaigning there didn't really hinder his chances anyway else due to the staggered nature of the primaries. By devoting more resources to PA than any other state, McCain is letting Obama outspend him badly in pivotal swing states won by Bush that McCain needs, exasperating an already significant fundraising deficit. Furthermore, the polls have consistently showing Obama with double digit leads in PA, so all that money/manpower isn't even producing any tangible gains for McCain there (even if it did, the gains would need to be tremendous to justify the attention McCain is lavishing on it IMO.) As I said in a poll I created a few days ago, McCain NEEDS to start abandoning PA NOW (he can do it quietly or gradually to avoid horrible PR), but some resources need to be diverted immediately to the states that would win him the election, namely OH, FL, VA, NC, MO, NV, CO. The opportunity costs of his current PA operations are mind-boggling.

McCain Camp, RNC to Spend $160 Million in Final Weeks

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/10/mccain-camp-rnc-spend-million-final-weeks/

Well oops there goes that sound theory

[anti_leftist]

Phil, out of curiousity, do you still believe that
1) McCain has a realistic shot at taking PA (barring some extremely monumental event such as attempted assassination/major terrorist attack before election day) and
2) McCain is making the correct decision by turning PA into his most heavily-funded state (at the expense of the aforementioned Bush states, where Obama is largely outspending him.)

[anti_leftist]

We pay attention to our own polls," Mark Salter, a senior McCain aide told reporters Saturday. "Pennsylvania looked much better than Michigan."




McCain should no longer quit in PA, anymore than he should have quit when Romney was leading by double digits in New Hampshire

That's a ridiculously flawed analogy. NH was basically McCain's only chance to register a pivotal momentum-building first victory (since Ethanolia was a lost cause) and campaigning there didn't really hinder his chances anyway else due to the staggered nature of the primaries. By devoting more resources to PA than any other state, McCain is letting Obama outspend him badly in pivotal swing states won by Bush that McCain needs, exasperating an already significant fundraising deficit. Furthermore, the polls have consistently showing Obama with double digit leads in PA, so all that money/manpower isn't even producing any tangible gains for McCain there (even if it did, the gains would need to be tremendous to justify the attention McCain is lavishing on it IMO.) As I said in a poll I created a few days ago, McCain NEEDS to start abandoning PA NOW (he can do it quietly or gradually to avoid horrible PR), but some resources need to be diverted immediately to the states that would win him the election, namely OH, FL, VA, NC, MO, NV, CO. The opportunity costs of his current PA operations are mind-boggling.

McCain Camp, RNC to Spend $160 Million in Final Weeks

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/10/mccain-camp-rnc-spend-million-final-weeks/

Well oops there goes that sound theory

That still doesn't change my basic argument that McCain's massive expenditures in PA would be far better spent elsewhere. Even if McCain does outspend Obama in the real battlegrounds the next few weeks, pulling funds out of PA could significantly increase that advantage further in those states (considering how far behind he trails in some of these polls now, he needs every advantage he can get).

[Lunar]

McCain Camp, RNC to Spend $160 Million in Final Weeks

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/10/mccain-camp-rnc-spend-million-final-weeks/

Well oops there goes that sound theory

a) Seems like an exaggerated number
b) RNC never said it would spend its share (100+ million) on McCain.

[Keystone Phil]

lol

No substantive argument against what I'm saying? Shocking! Give us a call when you have...well...anything to contribute.

Phil, out of curiousity, do you still believe that
1) McCain has a realistic shot at taking PA (barring some extremely monumental event such as attempted assassination/major terrorist attack before election day) and
2) McCain is making the correct decision by turning PA into his most heavily-funded state (at the expense of the aforementioned Bush states, where Obama is largely outspending him.)

1) Not too realistic now.

2) He should be spending the most in a state like CO, VA or FL.

[Keystone Phil]

But in a striking blow to my anecdotes, someone just a few houses down from me had the audacity to put up an Obama sign. They must have been getting worried since McCain signs are popping up everyday. 

[Ronnie]

McCain won't win PA when he's down by 6 points nationally.  Period.

[Boris]

Not quite sure what you're trying to extrapolate from this article. That McCain has a chance at winning the state? While down 6-8 nationally? Have there been any polls showing a single digit Obama lead in October?

[Keystone Phil]

And since I'm on a roll today...

I just got a call from my Grandmother that lives in South Philly. She wanted to let me know that there was so much stuff for McCain in today's Columbus Day parade down there. She was also shocked to see so many McCain signs in windows down there. It's shocking because she lives in the heart of the South Philly Democratic machine. I tried explaining to her why it's different this time but she still couldn't get over it.

Not quite sure what you're trying to extrapolate from this article. That McCain has a chance at winning the state? While down 6-8 nationally? Have there been any polls showing a single digit Obama lead in October?

The point is that it's not over and these types of voters are exactly why it isn't over.

[Boris]

The point is that it's not over and these types of voters are exactly why it isn't over.

lol, it's a waste of time to even bother, really. I'll just shut up and let the election day results do the talking

[Meeker]

A very angry gay, black man just walked into my office and demanded a Barack Obama sign.

FYI

[Lunar]

[Keystone Phil]

The point is that it's not over and these types of voters are exactly why it isn't over.

lol, it's a waste of time to even bother, really. I'll just shut up and let the election day results do the talking

Ok, good. In the meantime, we'll just resort to "LOL @ the idiot. You'll be proven wrong on Election day."

A very angry gay, black man just walked into my office and demanded a Barack Obama sign.

FYI

Democratic voter...voting Democratic again...in a safe Democratic state. Good!

[Meeker]

A very angry gay, black man just walked into my office and demanded a Barack Obama sign.

FYI

Democratic voter...voting Democratic again...in a safe Democratic state. Good!

His rage is boiling over to other voters, Phil. You should know these things.

[Keystone Phil]

A very angry gay, black man just walked into my office and demanded a Barack Obama sign.

FYI

Democratic voter...voting Democratic again...in a safe Democratic state. Good!

His rage is boiling over to other voters, Phil. You should know these things.

If you guys don't agree with my analysis, leave it at a simple disagreement. I'm tired of posting my thoughts (which are backed up by others) only to have it met with sarcasm or "LOL KEEP DREAMING, PHIL!"

[Mr.Phips]

McCain Camp, RNC to Spend $160 Million in Final Weeks

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/10/mccain-camp-rnc-spend-million-final-weeks/

Well oops there goes that sound theory

a) Seems like an exaggerated number
b) RNC never said it would spend its share (100+ million) on McCain.

They should spend it on McCain in the final weeks.  This kind of strategy is much like the one that Gerald Ford used against Jimmy Carter in the last week in the 1976 campaign.  His ad blitz reversed Carter's leads in Virginia, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, Oklahoma, and nearly did so in Ohio and Missouri.