PUTTING YOUR OWN VIEWS ASIDE, WHO WILL REALLY WIN?

[Keystone Phil]

Casey has the edge but anything can happen. If Santorum beats Casey, he'll be the new political survivor in PA.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't really know. Everyone (even Keystone Phil) seems to believe Casey has a lock but until we get campaigns up and running and see how things shake out with the media, debates, available resources (including money) and who wants it more... I just don't know.

No. There is not lock. It's just likely that Casey would win. Santorum will really need to capitalize on the debates. That's where he has a clear advantage. I can't wait.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey will win if and only if he can keep the pro-abortion radicals from destroying his warchest and reputation in the primaries and from running a third party candidate in the general.

There will probably be no Green or Constitution party candidates. The Libertarians, however, will probably run someone and could attract some votes on the abortion issue.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey will win if and only if he can keep the pro-abortion radicals from destroying his warchest and reputation in the primaries and from running a third party candidate in the general.

There will probably be no Green or Constitution party candidates. The Libertarians, however, will probably run someone and could attract some votes on the abortion issue.

No, I think there is a good chance of a Green candidate running and possibly doing as well as Clymer did this year.  Even if Casey loses 3 points to a Greenie, that could cost him the race.

I think the Green Party will probably want to see Santorum gone the most and realize that running a candidate will only hurt Casey whereas the Libertarians are...well...Libertarians. 

Quick point to Wakie: If PA is a moderate state and Santorum is such a far right winger, why does Santorum have the approval ratings he has? Why are his disapproval ratings the lowest?

Don't make this into moderate vs. conservative. Casey's name is the big thing here.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't really know. Everyone (even Keystone Phil) seems to believe Casey has a lock but until we get campaigns up and running and see how things shake out with the media, debates, available resources (including money) and who wants it more... I just don't know.

The key, IMO, is who else, if anyone else, will step into the Democratic Primary in 2006.   A name you might hear is William Kiesling.  Not a good candidate, but a "muckraker" in the worse sense of the word.

Chuck Pennacchio is also running. Who is this Kiesling guy?

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow. Santorum's my political hero and right now I see him losing while you are pretty far from Santorum and see him with the edge.

The way Santorum wins: He crushes (and I don't mean just wins, I mean crushes) Casey in the debates. Everyone will admit it: Casey is a bad debater. If Santorum controls the debates, he wins this thing. The same goes when it comes to the candidates' commercials.

The reason why this race is different from Casey-Rendell of 2002 is because it's a General election. "Well wouldn't that only help Santorum?" you might ask. No. Conservative Democrats will look at Casey like their hero. Some conservative Republicans still angry about the whole Specter endorsement might say "I can't stand Santorum for backing Specter, there's a conservative Democrat in the race...I'm going with Casey." The one thing that could save Santorum that many thought would bring about his downfall: The Philadelphia suburbs.

The Philly 'burbs are not exactly "Santorum country." Social liberalism is the norm in many areas. A Santorum vs. Hafer or Santorum vs. Hoeffel race would have meant the Philly 'burbs going Democratic. And they'll do the same this time...except maybe not as much as expected.

The suburban areas around here don't like Santorum and will vote to send him packing in 2006; however, economic issues can hold down Casey's numbers. The suburbs are economically centrist. Santorum stressing his economic policy would mean not as bad of a blow to his campaign.

It's going to be an interesting 2006 but we're still in 2005 and Casey has the edge. Yet this early start could end with a late finish for Bobby...

[Keystone Phil]

Bobby Casey is consistantly up in the polls.  I chose him.

There has only been one poll (showing him up five points).

[Keystone Phil]

The important thing to note is, Santorum, ideologically is closer to the philly burbs than casey is...

they might both be far out...but Santorum's to the moon, Casey...Mars.

And you know it's weird when someone says Santorum is closer to the Philly 'burbs than a Democrat.

Stress economic views around Montco, Bucks, etc. Rick. It'll help!

[Keystone Phil]

The important thing to note is, Santorum, ideologically is closer to the philly burbs than casey is...

they might both be far out...but Santorum's to the moon, Casey...Mars.

 Enough to counter the RINO's of Philadelphia?

Actually, the Republicans of Philadelphia are rather conservative. Take, for example, Northeast Philadelphia Republicans (that would be me). Most are much more conservative than our Republican counterparts in the suburbs (maybe that's what you were thinking about).

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell will get out of the Casey vote in the Southeast....no worries there.

Casey 51-47

I could see that outcome; however, I was thinking that Santorum could win with that result also.

[Keystone Phil]

casey=klink part 2

Sorry but you really can't compare the two.

[Keystone Phil]

casey=klink part 2

Sorry but you really can't compare the two.

except one is running on a famous name.

And unfortunatley that's what gives him a clear edge.

[Keystone Phil]

It's not *all* the name...he did a really good job as Auditor General.

It's the name.

[Keystone Phil]

It's not *all* the name...he did a really good job as Auditor General.

It's the name.

He could have done a crappy job as Auditor General, and his name wouldn't have got him anywhere.

You're a joke. His name is why he is a candidate. His name is the reason why he is a State Treasurer.

[Keystone Phil]

casey=klink part 2

Sorry but you really can't compare the two.

except one is running on a famous name.

And unfortunatley that's what gives him a clear edge.

Remember what I said about the Philly burbs, though.

And I agree; however, he is still disliked.

[Keystone Phil]

It's not *all* the name...he did a really good job as Auditor General.

It's the name.

He could have done a crappy job as Auditor General, and his name wouldn't have got him anywhere.

You're a joke. His name is why he is a candidate. His name is the reason why he is a State Treasurer.

He's the candidate for several reasons.

1) He's a moderate ... probably the most famous PA Dem moderate.
2) He does have a famous name.  But then again so does Chris Heinz and he isn't running.
3) He's done a great job as auditor general.
4) He won his last election by an obscenely large margin.

1) So was Klink.
2) Casey is more well liked than Heinz.
3) That's not the reason why he's running.
4) ...because of his name.

[Keystone Phil]

It amuses me that the non-Pennsylvanians are the ones saying Santorum will win, while almost everyone in the state disagrees.

I will say though that it's very possible for this thing to turn around and end up a Santorum win. Not by 5-6 points but he could win.

[Keystone Phil]

I still can't believe I'm possibly contemplating voting for Rick.

*shocked*

I know Casey isn't your type of ideology, but is he a nutcase who has a bizarre obsession with man on dog sex? Think of it that way.

Put it this way. I doubt Santorum-policy wise-is significantly different from Casey on social issues.

Then it becomes a question of economics (and clout)...santorum wins.

Like I said...lots of time to figure this out.

I'm glad to see you're looking at it that way.