PUTTING YOUR OWN VIEWS ASIDE, WHO WILL REALLY WIN?

[MAS117]

PUTTING YOUR VIEWS ASIDE, WHO WILL REALLY WIN?

[TeePee4Prez]

Bob Casey. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Casey on balance of probabilities.

[Jake]

Casey is obviously the favorite, but we'll see how everything shakes out.  Santorum will have more money in this race due to pro-choice group not giving as much as they would to Hafer, but heavy hitters like Rendell, Gore, Dean, Clinton compare well to Santorum's possible campaigners like Specter, Guliani, Bush, Frist, etc.  In the end, I guess Casey will win by around 4-5 points.

[Joe Republic]

Depends how much the Republicans are actually prepared to fight for him.  If they write him off in advance, Casey has it.

[Sam Spade]

I don't really know. Everyone (even Keystone Phil) seems to believe Casey has a lock but until we get campaigns up and running and see how things shake out with the media, debates, available resources (including money) and who wants it more... I just don't know.

I agree with NewFederalist here.   Predicting how candidates will react with the populace 18 months out from the election is never smart.

I also don't expect anyone to run out and concede here one bit.

[Moooooo]

Rick Santorum.  

He'll move to the left over the next two years and people will fall for it.

Someone else at another forum put it like this...

"He is famous for this tactic.  He normally emerges from under his rock about a year before he runs and then he starts trying to paint himself as the "crusader for the little helpless people"...

Expect ads highlighting his work with the elderly, the sick, and he will rehash all his work on Megan's law..."

Plus, from what Ive heard Casey is a horrible public speaker and far from the brightest guy in the world.  If he agrees to a debate it will probably propel Santorum ahead in the poll's and eventually to victory.

I hope Im wrong, but looking at it from a non-partisan point of view Id say its a lean-Satorum race.

[Smash255]

Rick Santorum. 

He'll move to the left over the next two years and people will fall for it.

Someone else at another forum put it like this...

"He is famous for this tactic.  He normally emerges from under his rock about a year before he runs and then he starts trying to paint himself as the "crusader for the little helpless people"...

Expect ads highlighting his work with the elderly, the sick, and he will rehash all his work on Megan's law..."

Plus, from what Ive heard Casey is a horrible public speaker and far from the brightest guy in the world.  If he agrees to a debate it will probably propel Santorum ahead in the poll's and eventually to victory.

I hope Im wrong, but looking at it from a non-partisan point of view Id say its a lean-Satorum race.

Santorum won't be able to keep hs big yapper shut, and make some more idiotic comments.  Idiotic comments close to an election tend to have bigger impacts than mid term idiotic comments

[Keystone Phil]

Casey has the edge but anything can happen. If Santorum beats Casey, he'll be the new political survivor in PA.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't really know. Everyone (even Keystone Phil) seems to believe Casey has a lock but until we get campaigns up and running and see how things shake out with the media, debates, available resources (including money) and who wants it more... I just don't know.

No. There is not lock. It's just likely that Casey would win. Santorum will really need to capitalize on the debates. That's where he has a clear advantage. I can't wait.

[The Duke]

Casey will win if and only if he can keep the pro-abortion radicals from destroying his warchest and reputation in the primaries and from running a third party candidate in the general.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey will win if and only if he can keep the pro-abortion radicals from destroying his warchest and reputation in the primaries and from running a third party candidate in the general.

There will probably be no Green or Constitution party candidates. The Libertarians, however, will probably run someone and could attract some votes on the abortion issue.

[Cashcow]

Rick Santorum. 

He'll move to the left over the next two years and people will fall for it.

Someone else at another forum put it like this...

"He is famous for this tactic.  He normally emerges from under his rock about a year before he runs and then he starts trying to paint himself as the "crusader for the little helpless people"...

Expect ads highlighting his work with the elderly, the sick, and he will rehash all his work on Megan's law..."

Plus, from what Ive heard Casey is a horrible public speaker and far from the brightest guy in the world.  If he agrees to a debate it will probably propel Santorum ahead in the poll's and eventually to victory.

I hope Im wrong, but looking at it from a non-partisan point of view Id say its a lean-Satorum race.

^Replace Santorum with Kerry and Casey with Bush - this fits perfectly (except Kerry moved to the right, sort of). Think about it, and remember what happened.

[Jake]

Casey will win if and only if he can keep the pro-abortion radicals from destroying his warchest and reputation in the primaries and from running a third party candidate in the general.

There will probably be no Green or Constitution party candidates. The Libertarians, however, will probably run someone and could attract some votes on the abortion issue.

No, I think there is a good chance of a Green candidate running and possibly doing as well as Clymer did this year.  Even if Casey loses 3 points to a Greenie, that could cost him the race.

[Wakie]

A lot can happen in a year, but if all things are the same I'd say Casey is a shoe-in.  PA is a moderate state and what we have here is a moderate Dem vs an extremist Repub.

Throw in Santorum's latest move to do away with many of the labor laws (that will go over like a lead brick in Pittsburgh) and you have a guy who seems to want to lose and lose badly.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey will win if and only if he can keep the pro-abortion radicals from destroying his warchest and reputation in the primaries and from running a third party candidate in the general.

There will probably be no Green or Constitution party candidates. The Libertarians, however, will probably run someone and could attract some votes on the abortion issue.

No, I think there is a good chance of a Green candidate running and possibly doing as well as Clymer did this year.  Even if Casey loses 3 points to a Greenie, that could cost him the race.

I think the Green Party will probably want to see Santorum gone the most and realize that running a candidate will only hurt Casey whereas the Libertarians are...well...Libertarians. 

Quick point to Wakie: If PA is a moderate state and Santorum is such a far right winger, why does Santorum have the approval ratings he has? Why are his disapproval ratings the lowest?

Don't make this into moderate vs. conservative. Casey's name is the big thing here.

[AuH2O]

I agree with nick, with added emphasis on the fact Santorum is an incumbent.

Challengers rarely blow away incumbents... George Allen only beat then-discredited Chuck Robb by 2% in Virginia of all places (2000), Thune barely dislodged Daschle, Cantwell barely took out Gorton, Stabenow barely beat Abraham, etc.

In fact, it would be almost unprecedented for Casey to win by a solid margin,  barring scandal for Santorum. I understand the reason many say Casey is so likely to win, but on paper I just don't see it. He could be a paper tiger to some degree because of the limited scope of his statewide wins (low level office); Santorum is battle-tested several times over.

Now, Santorum will need a tremendous GOTV effort in all likelihood, because he is unpopular with most Democrats and can only expect limited crossover. But right now I see this as a 1-2% race either way, pure tossup.

[12th Doctor]

Santorum

I always thought that Casey would be unbeatable, until it dawned on me... we have two social conservatives dueling it out.  Casey effectively negates anybacklash Sanotorum might get for being a social conservative.

In the meantime Santorum's economic conservatism will win him more votes in the Philly burbs while Casey will pick up some votes, but not enough, in Pittsburgh and the "T".

My prediction-

Santorum 52%-48%

[J. J.]

I don't really know. Everyone (even Keystone Phil) seems to believe Casey has a lock but until we get campaigns up and running and see how things shake out with the media, debates, available resources (including money) and who wants it more... I just don't know.

I believed Casey was a lock for governor in 2002.  I believed that Klink was a lock in 2000.  I believed Singel was a lock for the Democratic nomination for Senate in 1994; same with Bailey in 1986.  I believed these at this stage of the game.

The key, IMO, is who else, if anyone else, will step into the Democratic Primary in 2006.   A name you might hear is William Kiesling.  Not a good candidate, but a "muckraker" in the worse sense of the word.

[Rob]

Casey. Sorry Rick, but you're gonna lose.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't really know. Everyone (even Keystone Phil) seems to believe Casey has a lock but until we get campaigns up and running and see how things shake out with the media, debates, available resources (including money) and who wants it more... I just don't know.

The key, IMO, is who else, if anyone else, will step into the Democratic Primary in 2006.   A name you might hear is William Kiesling.  Not a good candidate, but a "muckraker" in the worse sense of the word.

Chuck Pennacchio is also running. Who is this Kiesling guy?

[bullmoose88]

Santorum

I always thought that Casey would be unbeatable, until it dawned on me... we have two social conservatives dueling it out.  Casey effectively negates anybacklash Sanotorum might get for being a social conservative.

In the meantime Santorum's economic conservatism will win him more votes in the Philly burbs while Casey will pick up some votes, but not enough, in Pittsburgh and the "T".

My prediction-

Santorum 52%-48%

Yeah. I think Soult has a point. Personally, I like Casey better, but Santorum (I never thought I'd say this) is probably closer to me ideologically (and probably closer to the SE burbs ideologically).

I'd put this race at a push.

Casey wins if:

1) Santorum makes a flub
but more likely
2) The Casey name gets the same amount of mileage here that it used to

Santorum wins if:
1) If Casey's populism can be used effectively in the SE
2) Santorum becomes a bit more moderate.

Right now,

I'd say Santorum, 51-49.

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow. Santorum's my political hero and right now I see him losing while you are pretty far from Santorum and see him with the edge.

The way Santorum wins: He crushes (and I don't mean just wins, I mean crushes) Casey in the debates. Everyone will admit it: Casey is a bad debater. If Santorum controls the debates, he wins this thing. The same goes when it comes to the candidates' commercials.

The reason why this race is different from Casey-Rendell of 2002 is because it's a General election. "Well wouldn't that only help Santorum?" you might ask. No. Conservative Democrats will look at Casey like their hero. Some conservative Republicans still angry about the whole Specter endorsement might say "I can't stand Santorum for backing Specter, there's a conservative Democrat in the race...I'm going with Casey." The one thing that could save Santorum that many thought would bring about his downfall: The Philadelphia suburbs.

The Philly 'burbs are not exactly "Santorum country." Social liberalism is the norm in many areas. A Santorum vs. Hafer or Santorum vs. Hoeffel race would have meant the Philly 'burbs going Democratic. And they'll do the same this time...except maybe not as much as expected.

The suburban areas around here don't like Santorum and will vote to send him packing in 2006; however, economic issues can hold down Casey's numbers. The suburbs are economically centrist. Santorum stressing his economic policy would mean not as bad of a blow to his campaign.

It's going to be an interesting 2006 but we're still in 2005 and Casey has the edge. Yet this early start could end with a late finish for Bobby...

[ian]

Bobby Casey is consistantly up in the polls.  I chose him.

[Keystone Phil]

Bobby Casey is consistantly up in the polls.  I chose him.

There has only been one poll (showing him up five points).