2020 New York Redistricting

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https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1486491863322439680?s=20

Yeah, that NY-22 isn't looking real safe. Even without Katko, I think Syracuse has some ticket splitters.

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The New York court system is kind of strange, but anyways this isn't the final court, the Court of Appeals.

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https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517271516144189442

I question that. Election dates can be changed. I also doubt the Court of Appeals will stay all of this. If it does not stay, then the question is whether the Dems will submit a new map. This is a classic example of pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. They should have ceded a couple of more seats to the Pubs, but as hogs they did not. NYS all too often, attracts the dumbest and most cynical and most corrupt. The intellectual class in the state is too busy engaged in changing the nation and the world to bother with something that is degrading as the cesspool that it NYS governance. I do know based on my buddy lawyer system, that when it comes to drafting legislation, its lawyers can't draft their way out of a paper bag. Even the lawyers seem to be patronage positions for the dumbs.

New York used to have non federal primaries in September, including one very badly timed one on 9/11/01, but it seems they recently moved everything to June. It would have been easier to move the June primary to September had that not happened.

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Where does this 2% concept come from? I can't find it in the redistricting law myself.

I think it's from a law the legislature passed a while back. I can't find a cite either. They might have repealed it in the interim.

Edit: It's Section 3 of the bill passed in 2012 establishing the commission:

§  3. Any amendments by the senate or assembly to a redistricting plan
    31  submitted by the independent redistricting commission, shall not  affect
    32  more  than  two  percent  of the population of any district contained in
    33  such plan.  If two or more plans for districts in the  same  legislative
    34  house or for congressional districts are submitted by the commission and
    35  voted  upon  by the legislature, such plans shall be considered individ-
    36  ually and not combined.

See Assembly bill A 9557 (2012) here:
http://public.leginfo.state.ny.us/navigate.cgi?NVDTO:

Does this mean that any map has to be similar to "Names" or "Letters"?

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The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).   

Trump is the only Republican to win Suffolk county since 1988 and he won it both times, so it's not some amazing D trend there.