PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Fetterman has released a short response to recent talk of the gun incident.

He disputes the fact that he knew of the man's race, while claiming that he maintained 15 feet of distance between him and the man and never pointed the gun at anyone. If he's being truthful, which I see no real reason to doubt, this is probably a non-issue.

Well, I appreciate him releasing a statement and this seems like a better response than what he has said in the past, but it still feels a little...phoned in? I guess? I mean, how hard is it really to just say "I made a snap decision where I believe my intentions were pure, but it was the wrong decision. I regret it and I apologize if I made this innocent man feel unsafe or targeted." I still support him, but he can't just expect this to go away just by saying "this has never caught on when anyone else has tried to use it against me."

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Fetterman has released a short response to recent talk of the gun incident.

He disputes the fact that he knew of the man's race, while claiming that he maintained 15 feet of distance between him and the man and never pointed the gun at anyone. If he's being truthful, which I see no real reason to doubt, this is probably a non-issue.

Well, I appreciate him releasing a statement and this seems like a better response than what he has said in the past, but it still feels a little...phoned in? I guess? I mean, how hard is it really to just say "I made a snap decision where I believe my intentions were pure, but it was the wrong decision. I regret it and I apologize if I made this innocent man feel unsafe or targeted." I still support him, but he can't just expect this to go away just by saying "this has never caught on when anyone else has tried to use it against me."

On the "innocent man" point, it must be noted that the guy in question is currently serving a prison sentence for kidnapping for ransom, terroristic threats, and reckless endangerment. Now, that was from a completely unrelated incident and clearly does not justify Fetterman's actions, but it does kind of change the optics of how apologizing to the guy would look.

I mean, it doesn't make him less innocent in the moment we're discussing, though. Just because someone goes on to commit a crime does not mean it's okay to harass them when they've done nothing wrong. I don't think it changes the optics at all and he should still apologize.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Ready to see him get 5% in the primary.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

3+ hours & only 63 likes? I'm already shaking in my boots because of just how effective this messaging is proving to be.

(/s if it wasn't painfully obvious)

Remember he's still undefined, they'll be running ads in WWC communities slamming him for being pro-open borders, woke and from a rich family allowing with accusing him of dishoney in his image

Everybody on Atlas: "Fetterman has cultivated an image of somebody in touch with the concerns of WWC communities."

IBNU: "bUt He'S uNdEfInEd"

He has a reputation among partisan democrats, nobody else knows who he is beyond the funny looking guy they sometimes see near tom wolf.

And who exactly knows who Ryan Costello is besides his former constituents, who sent him running in fear into a lobbying job?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1361267708214587395?s=20

Ugh. This bozo. Guess he's worried about getting drawn out.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1361267708214587395?s=20

Ugh. This bozo. Guess he's worried about getting drawn out.

I mean, he’d probably be a stronger candidate than Fetterman tbf.

We’ve seen time and time again that running to the center in tough races is not a safe strategy. Lamb is uninspiring and lacks substance. What does he have over Fetterman (or Cartwright) in terms of appeal to working class voters or POC?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/538007-ryan-grim-rep-conor-lamb-very-likely-to-enter-pennsylvania-senate-race

In addition to Lamb, State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta might run.

This article speculates that Kenyatta and Fetterman would split the progressive vote, creating a lane for Conor Lamb.

I hope Lamb stays out of this race.

Fetterman is much stronger, imo. If people want a conservative blue dog, they would just vote republican.

Let Lamb run for Governor.

I’m a big fan of Malcolm Kenyatta and I know he has been good friends with John and Gisele Fetterman. I hope the primary doesn’t get ugly. But Kenyatta would be an excellent candidate if he could somehow win the primary. Just not sure how he’d fare in the general.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Not sure why Lamb is being derided as some fake Democrat, he has come thru every single time he was needed.

He was one of 6 Democrats to vote Nay on the MORE Act because he thought the bill did not legalize marijuana "the right way" and that COVID relief was more important. Which it is, but we can walk and chew gum at the same time. He was just lying so that he wouldn't have to say that he doesn't support legalizing marijuana knowing full well that it's one of John Fetterman's strongest issues and would hurt him in the Senate primary if he decided to run.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Yeah, because he's running for Governor

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

Lamb is very likely to get in. If he has been talking to Schumer already and has publicly admitted he’s thinking about it, then it would truly surprise me if he decided not to. He fills the moderate lane and knows he has the profile to win statewide if the progressive vote splits.

Houlahan, Wild, and Dean are pretty much a carousel and it would truly depend on which one wants it most. Dean and Houlahan are in the safer seats so maybe Wild would be most likely to get in based on what seat would be most worth it to sacrifice, but then again that argument could work in reverse and Dean, whose seat is safest, could run while someone else easily wins her seat for the Dems. She did also raise her profile quite a bit by being an impeachment manager. I think Houlahan is the most ambitious of the bunch, though, and I’ve seen her name floated the most among the three.

If I had to rank it based on percentages, I’d say Houlahan is probably 55%, Wild is like 40%, and Dean is maybe 25-30%?

All just speculation at this point though.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I feel like Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is going to end up as the next Kennedy vs. Markey on here. As in, a primary where supporters of both candidates get into bitter debates about who’s better when both basically have the same position on every issue. I really don’t see this seat flipping with a contentious primary like the one in 2016.

I just wish Matt Cartwright would run.

The difference is that neither candidate comes from a long political dynasty while being such an opportunist. JKIII clearly only wanted the seat because he wanted to angle himself for a Presidential run.

Dang, I was hoping to avoid a divisive primary. My issue is honestly that I like both Fetterman and Kenyatta so much that I want to vote for both. I really wish Kenyatta had run for LG or something instead. Still with Fetterman for the moment, but I really like both, so my mind isn't completely made up yet.

I’m with you here. I love them both and I wish they could both win. I’m pretty sure I’ll vote for Fetterman but if circumstances change and Kenyatta is in a better position to win come the day of the primary, I will happily vote for him.

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

Lamb is very likely to get in. If he has been talking to Schumer already and has publicly admitted he’s thinking about it, then it would truly surprise me if he decided not to. He fills the moderate lane and knows he has the profile to win statewide if the progressive vote splits.

Wait, I thought he said (when he was publicly admitting his thinking about it, no less) he hadn't talked to Schumer yet?

Oh, I guess I misread that article the first time. Well, the point still stands about him confirming his interest.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wouldn't Cartwright open up a vulnerable seat in the House? And isn't he a boring dude?

I'm for sure backing Fetterman.

Yes, at this point, Cartwright bring nothing to the race that Fetterman or Kenyatta wouldn't bring. I would expect him to stay in Congress at this point.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

- I’m also not really convinced that nominating Kenyatta will have a big impact on AA turnout outside of maybe his district.  The best way to get the base to turnout is to nuke or gut the filibuster and pass progressive legislation that either directly effects people or is a major priority for the Democratic base.

Stacey Abrams has given us the framework for organizing, specifically in black communities. We know that midterms come down to turnout and no matter who the Democrats nominate, we need every vote possible. We have a ton of votes in Philly, Pittsburgh, Erie, Montco/Bucks/Delco that are heavily favorable for Dems. A lot of those voters are black. Organizers in PA know this, specifically the ones working in those areas. There's a compelling case to make that Fetterman can help win back WWC voters in places like Erie and Luzerne and Lackawanna but that's inherently an uphill battle because they've already demonstrated willingness to vote for Trumpist candidates. Winning black voters in Philly and Pittsburgh and the collar counties is inherently favorable towards Democrats and just comes down to turnout. If Kenyatta is the type of person who can turn those people out, his case is equally compelling.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb. I cannot handle another Sinema sabotaging the Democratic agenda at every opportunity for "bipartisanship" points back home.

Nah, I'm gonna have to disagree with you here. I've made my dislike of Lamb pretty clear, but he is leagues and leagues ahead of any of the goobers the GOP would nominate, and significantly better than Pat Toomey at that. We can certainly do much better than Lamb, but he is by no means a Sinema, more like a Casey. He'll vote with Democrats on almost every issue but he won't go out of his way to push anything bold or progressive.

There's no evidence that Kenyatta would get us higher than usual AA turnout.  And Georgia is a turnout state, not a turnout + persuasion state like PA.  What little evidence we have suggests Kenyatta is at least as likely to under-perform Generic D as over-perform. 

The point is about organizing on the ground. If Kenyatta's ability to get organizers to turn out the vote is successful, the persuasion element becomes less important. Still important, but he at least can count on maxing out the most favorable areas to begin with. He also does have a pretty strong persuasion argument, at least similar to Fetterman. He already has the backing of a lot of teachers unions and will almost certainly get the endorsement of other unions if he manages to clear the field. Plus Biden owes him pretty big for being one of his most prominent surrogates, I could see Joe coming to PA and stumping for Malcolm. Not sure if he would do the same for Fetterman. You can't get much more persuasive than the President of the United States, who flipped the state back to blue, coming to stump for you. Not to mention that Obama may also have a stake in elevating Kenyatta...he seems to be the best of both worlds. I know establishment types like Fetterman because he has been a strong surrogate in defending Governor Wolf and going on national news to debunk the right's terrible election lies, but he is also an open Democratic Socialist. That may strike some fear into the hearts of some voters. I'm not trying to make an electoral case against Fetterman, but just give you a fuller scope of where the shortcomings may lie and where Kenyatta might be stronger.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Not a Lamb supporter but



Not exactly screaming Sinema 2.0...

He's not as moderate as people say it is, even if Cartwright/Fetterman are better.

Yeah, but Sinema and Manchin do not encompass the full spectrum of moderate Democrats. We can do better than Lamb. I’ve compared him to Bob Casey with more ambition. He’s not a risk taker or someone who will go to bat for issues that need to be tackled. We shouldn’t need to settle for him just for some arbitrary electability argument.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

If you thought Markey vs. Kennedy was ugly, Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is just getting started (have fun with that, PA Dems):

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1364290274852294656

Apparently the context is that it's been a year since Ahmaud Arbery's murder, but Kenyetta isn't stupid.

Glad I’m not the only person who picked up on this. It’s obvious that this is about Ahmaud Arbery but could be read as a double entendre.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Apparently this was missed, but both developments could prove rather crucial:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1364319730589257728?s=19


This one's more of a rumor if anything, but still
https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1364425979192631296
(I know that this is a sketchy source, but I'm more illustrating that the chance of her getting in is rather significant. Her own son was hyping her up as a senate candidate just a day or two ago, afterall.)

This would potentially make 3 SEPA candidates vs Fetterman.

Woah, that's huge news for Street. I wonder if he'll dull Kenyatta's success seeing that he's also from Philly but has quite a bit of experience on Kenyatta.

I'm not sold on Dean running, I know a lot of folks think she will, but I still maintain the argument that she's much more likely to retain her house seat (easily) and move up through House leadership. It'll build her bonafides for a later run.

So now this leaves outstanding questions on Arkoosh (who I read is preparing to imminently announce a run for Senate, though I can't remember where I read that--I'll try to find a source if I can), Boyle, Houlahan, Wild, Lamb (who has expressed interest in running), Kenney, maybe Sestak, maybe Innamorato, maybe Fiedler, maybe Gym, maybe Lee, I mean that's a crazy amount of candidates to have for just one seat. You'd think that at least a couple of the smaller fish among those names would either run for LG or just sit this one out altogether, but it does seem like a lot of folks are looking at this like their only shot to elevate for quite some time.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I see Kenyatta is going with the "Fetterman is racist" strategy 🙄

He's not though. In his article in the Inquirer when he jumped in, he literally said:

"I don’t think this is about whether John is racist. I’ve not known him to be,” Kenyatta said. “But I don’t think we can have a system in Pennsylvania where somebody thinks they hear something and then have carte blanche to go chase down the next person they see with a shotgun. I’m from North Philadelphia. I hear gun shots all the time, unfortunately, but we can’t have people think they hear something and run and confront the next person they see. ... As a young Black man I know how traumatizing that can be.”

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/malcolm-kenyatta-2022-pennsylvania-senate-campaign-20210219.html

Which is an entirely fair point.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

So now this leaves outstanding questions on Arkoosh (who I read is preparing to imminently announce a run for Senate, though I can't remember where I read that--I'll try to find a source if I can), Boyle, Houlahan, Wild, Lamb (who has expressed interest in running), Kenney, maybe Sestak, maybe Innamorato, maybe Fiedler, maybe Gym, maybe Lee, I mean that's a crazy amount of candidates to have for just one seat. You'd think that at least a couple of the smaller fish among those names would either run for LG or just sit this one out altogether, but it does seem like a lot of folks are looking at this like their only shot to elevate for quite some time.

Pardon my ignorance, but who is Gym? I've tried googling around but can't find anything. Thought this might be a nickname for Jim Kenney (in the way that people call Jim Jordan "Gym" - though that's more due to the wrestling issues) but you listed Kenney separately so feels like that's not it.

There is a Philly Councilmember called Helen Gym. It's a Korean name.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Gym

Ah, thanks. Hadn't seen her name on any of the lists or other speculation

I wouldn't expect her to run. Besides, isn't she a member of the Working Families Party and not a Dem?

She may run for Lt. Gov, which is what I've seen floated for Innamorato, Fiedler, and Lee. As for her being a member of the WFP--I'm not sure if they're exactly an independent party in PA so much as an organizing operation hoping to gain party status like in other states. She was endorsed by the Philadelphia Democratic Committee according to her website. In her "about" section, she also signs herself as a Democrat. There is a member on the council who is listed as a member of the WFP, Kendra Brooks.

I see Kenyatta is going with the "Fetterman is racist" strategy 🙄

He's not though. In his article in the Inquirer when he jumped in, he literally said:

"I don’t think this is about whether John is racist. I’ve not known him to be,” Kenyatta said. “But I don’t think we can have a system in Pennsylvania where somebody thinks they hear something and then have carte blanche to go chase down the next person they see with a shotgun. I’m from North Philadelphia. I hear gun shots all the time, unfortunately, but we can’t have people think they hear something and run and confront the next person they see. ... As a young Black man I know how traumatizing that can be.”

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/malcolm-kenyatta-2022-pennsylvania-senate-campaign-20210219.html

Which is an entirely fair point.

It’s a fair point (and that incident is obviously fair game), but it doesn’t take much reading between the lines to see that he’s basically calling Fetterman a racist.  “I don’t think my opponent is a racist, I just think his white privilege made him feel like he had carte blanche to grab a shotgun and hunt down the nearest black man” is basically just another way of saying “my opponent is a racist who chases around young black men with his shotgun.” 

Regardless of whether he’s right or wrong, Kenyatta is pretty strongly implying that Fetterman is a racist (and a violent one at that).  Honestly, the subtext of the statement you quoted is practically text   This is a pretty clear shot across the bow.

It’s like in People vs. OJ, when F. Lee Bailey goes on TV and says some version of “I realize that some people say my colleague Bob Shapiro is in over his head.  And I know that many people say he has no idea what he’s doing because he’s a hopelessly incompetent lawyer who couldn’t argue his way out of a wet paper bag.  I want to dispel these rumors and assure everyone watching at home that there is absolutely no reason to think that Bob Shapiro is the wrong man for the job.”  Cut to Shapiro screaming at the TV “[T]hen why the f*** are you saying that?”

I think there's a bit more nuance to it than that. I think it is reasonable to say that someone can engage in behavior that is harmful or "privileged" without it being an explicit act of racism. I think Kenyatta is criticizing the behavior as being indicative of poor decision making and also pointing out that someone with more malicious intent could act similarly while still saying "but I'm not a racist." It makes it easier for racists to get away with doing something that is not in and of itself explicitly racist all of the time, if that makes sense. I do agree that it's a shot across the bow, though. It's basically saying "how can we trust this person to tackle racism when they can't even acknowledge the inherently privileged act of pulling a shotgun on a person of color was dangerous." I think you're reading a little too far in to the subtext given the context of them being primary opponents, which I'm perfectly willing to grant that you may be right and I'm just under-reading this, but knowing the friendship that John and Malcolm have had, I'm willing to take Malcolm at his word when he says he does not believe John is a racist, but he acted inappropriately and shouldn't be trusted in tough situations if he has a history of demonstrating shoddy decision making abilities.

This post was way too long, I'm so sorry everyone!

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Jeff Bartos (R) is in. Yawn

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1368925319349100548

He would be my dream GOP nominee if not Costello.

“John is a mensch,” Bartos says, referencing an event at Pennsylvania Society just after Fetterman had won their election, at which the lieutenant governor-elect agreed to speak on the condition that Bartos share the stage with him. “That’s who John is,” Bartos says. “Someone who shares the stage.”

https://thephiladelphiacitizen.org/fetterman-bartos-odd-couple/

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Breaking news: Ryan Costello has blocked me on Twitter. Very normal and rational guy.

The offending tweet:

https://twitter.com/moshxlyfe/status/1369686261691191300?s=20

[Pheurton Skeurto]

We talk a lot about the terrible GOP bench in Pennsylvania, which is mostly fair - other than Fitzpatrick, the current Reps. all represent deep red districts and haven't been tested in a competitive environment, and the former Rep has-beens like Costello seem too moderate to make it out of a primary. But do we think Stacy Garrity (newly elected Treasurer) and Timothy DeFoor (newly elected Auditor) could be formidable statewide candidates in the future (maybe not '22 since they just took office). Haven't heard much buzz about them regardless - is it because their wins last year (particularly Garrity's) are seen as flukes / unexpected, and therefore don't really speak to their electoral strength?

Both could be strong statewide candidates down the road for sure, especially Garrity. I could see one or both taking a shot at the Senate race in 24. Not sure about their ambitions, but especially with 24 being a Presidential election year, it may be a good opportunity to take a shot at Casey.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

Actually expected Fetterman's nomination as shoe-in. That said, I still expect him the win the Dem primary with strong support from Gov. Wolf. GE is a pure tossup.

Is Wolf even endorsing?

Likely not, but the two are inextricably linked. Even if Wolf doesn't publicly endorse anyone, no other candidate in the race will be as close to Wolf as Fetterman is. And he almost certainly won't say a bad word about Fetterman either.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Pretty nice troll job from Kenyatta here:

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1377214316269682691?s=20