PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

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Continues to blow my mind how Fetterman was far and away the front runner and he managed to squander it by refusing to do the most basic things that come with running for office. Debates, networking, going to Philly to meet with the voting base that you need more than anything else…it’s a shame. I’ve become more and more content (and even comfortable) with the idea of voting for Lamb in the general, but I do have concerns about how he will pivot rhetorically. I would hope he could stick to his message about unions and filibuster reform and voting rights (while embracing legal weed) but I fear he will revert back to the moderate talking points that got him elected to Congress in the first place.

In any case, I may just vote for Kenyatta in the primary even if he has no chance at this point.

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https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

I can't believe we're not going to nominate this man for arbitrary reasons like "electability" (whatever that means.)

Malcolm is the perfect candidate for this race and the fact that he will almost certainly place behind two mediocre white candidates who benefit from name recognition and, well, whiteness is an indictment of the way we elect candidates. It's depressing and frustrating.

I've always said that I'm going to vote for and support the Democratic nominee. Yes, that means I'm going to put in the work for Conor Lamb if he's the nominee. But I will do so with the latent understanding that he only won the primary because of what he looks like.

It's mind-blowing to think that less than 15 years ago, Democrats nominated a black man from Chicago named Barack Hussein Obama for President and elected him in a landslide victory and now they worry about "electability."

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Part of it is the professionalization of the party - the same sext of the party that sees the primary process like a job interview. Lamb's on-paper resume is impeccable. Part of it is Kenyatta being a progressive.

But I'd be lying if I didn't think race and SO had a part in Lamb's coronation.

Fetterman is a progressive too, so I don't think it really has anything to do with that. I do think there is something to be said how the party (and voters in general) deem "electability" in terms of white vs. black, but at the same time, Lamb also objectively has the most bonafides in the race - and the most widespread electoral winning history, so it's not like it's a total surprise that he is getting all the endorsements, etc.

FWIW, Fetterman has also faced a lot of resistance from the state party apparatus, but that may also have something to do with the fact that he's run an absolutely terrible campaign.

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Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

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Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

How bad of a campaign can he be running if he is up 30? Also this month old poll is sponsored by a superpac backing Lamb so it's doubly good for Fetterman.

He’s not running a bad campaign in the sense that he’s not gaining traction, he’s running a bad campaign because he’s sticking to super online tactics and avoiding opportunities to actually debate his opponents and talk to voters because he’s assuming he can coast on being the cool and hip dude who wants to legalize weed.

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PA Dems were handed a golden candidate on a silver platter, but have instead decided that it should be a two-way race between a man who refuses to wear pants and is possibly scared of Black people, and the man who is the human equivalent of corn flakes.

Honestly, the best candidates for Democrats chose not to run (Madeline Dean, Susan Wild, Mary Gay Scanlon).

I think Dean in particular would've been toxic for central Pennsylvania. She is like Rs textbook definition of a liberal elitist.

So, not really all that different from Fetterman, then.

HUH?

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PA Dems were handed a golden candidate on a silver platter, but have instead decided that it should be a two-way race between a man who refuses to wear pants and is possibly scared of Black people, and the man who is the human equivalent of corn flakes.

Honestly, the best candidates for Democrats chose not to run (Madeline Dean, Susan Wild, Mary Gay Scanlon).

I think Dean in particular would've been toxic for central Pennsylvania. She is like Rs textbook definition of a liberal elitist.

So, not really all that different from Fetterman, then.

HUH?

That's in reference to Fetterman's political views (which is basically if Bernie Sanders's economic policies met Joe Manchin's environmental policies), rather than his personality.

Of the candidates in the race, I'd prefer Kenyatta, but I'm not a Pennsylvania resident.

I don't know how many "liberal elites" you know, but a vast majority of them do not support Bernie Sanders' economic policies OR Joe Manchin's environmental policies (of which Fetterman is to the left of on most issues other than fracking)

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How’s the republican side? Has Oz more or less locked it up?

Nope. It's probably a tossup between McCormick and Oz but there's been so much bullsh*t from all sides that it's not even worth it to predict the outcome.

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Clearly somebody heard the criticisms. Conor Lamb joined all but two Democrats (Sawx's favorite reps, Cuellar and Pappas) in voting for the MORE Act.

https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2022107

Now if only he would run on federally legalizing weed! But this is a good step for him. I don't care his motivations, if he's willing to vote for legislation that helps people, then good for him.

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Sunrise can be pretty exhausting and cringe, but videos like this are never not funny:

https://twitter.com/sunrisemvmtpa/status/1510970599832756230?s=20&t=XNr388ZE...

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This is purely anecdotal, but I've been doing some texting for Malcolm and seeing a lot of support for him, but many people have expressed that they're behind Fetterman because they believe he can win the general. Also seeing some people saying that they're behind Fetterman because he endorsed Bernie.

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This is purely anecdotal, but I've been doing some texting for Malcolm and seeing a lot of support for him, but many people have expressed that they're behind Fetterman because they believe he can win the general. Also seeing some people saying that they're behind Fetterman because he endorsed Bernie.

Any support for Lamb?

Couple of people have said they support Lamb, are between Lamb and Fetterman, or have not mentioned him specifically but said they want to vote for a candidate who will win the general.

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Malcolm confronted Lt. Governor Fetterman directly over the shotgun incident:

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Crossposting, looks like Fetterman has the primary locked up. The GOP primary, on the other hand, looks like an absolute sh*tshow:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1514549335815565312?s=20&t=0dTa4XBAiSy...

Full tabs here: https://www.getrevue.co/profile/fandmpoll/issues/franklin-marshall-poll-release-april-2022-1133315

Key items:

D Primary

Fetterman - 41%
Lamb - 17%
Kenyatta - 4%
"Someone else" - 9%
None of the above - 2%
Undecided - 26%

R Primary

Oz - 16%
McCormick - 15%
Barnette - 7%
Bartos - 6%
Sands - 5%
Bochetto - 2%
"Someone else" - 6%
Undecided - 43%(!!!)

Sample: 785 RV (356 D, 317 R, 112 I/O)
MoE: +/- 4.2%

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Seems the Congressional delegation can't quite get on the same page:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1514571682068971526?s=20&t=qxtJJTqaAFZ...

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Here's how Q1 fundraising went. This is just donors and excludes self-funding

Dave McCormick (R) $4.35M
John Fetterman (D) $3.10M
Conor Lamb (D) $1.75M
Mehmet Oz (R) $1.71M
Kathy Barnette (R) $357K
Malcolm Kenyatta (D) $306K
George Bochetto (R) $205K
Jeff Bartos (R) $120K
Carla Sands (R) $104K

Malcolm's fundraising woes continue unfortunately. He did just go live with a TV ad, so hopefully that gives him some momentum but the lack of funds going into the home stretch is tough.

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Totally dropped the ball and didn’t post anything about tonight’s debate that just wrapped up. Lamb, Fetterman, and Kenyatta participated. The long and short is that everyone pretty much stuck to their talking points. Fetterman STILL refuses to apologize for the jogger incident and seemed incredibly unpolished as a debater but was fine otherwise. Malcolm got a few really good jabs in at both Fetterman and Lamb but I’m afraid it’s too little too late for him. Lyin’ Conor Lamb is still parroting GOP talking points, giving the run around, and being bland as all get out.

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There is another Democratic debate going on right now featuring all 4 candidates running:

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Malcolm is absolutely KILLING this debate.

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Meanwhile, the Republicans are debating and talking over each other about how which degree of authoritarianism they would implement to prevent future imaginary election fraud

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Meanwhile, the Republicans are debating and talking over each other about how which degree of authoritarianism they would implement to prevent future imaginary election fraud

I watched part of David Pakman's livestream of that debate. Even by GOP standards, it was unhinged.

I was also watching his livestream. I don't consume much of his content, but he was very funny. The bit where Oz said Fauci should be fired and he said "Fired?! He should be killed!" made me laugh very hard.

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Alex repeatedly demonstrated a failure to understand specific policy or demonstrate what sets her apart from the field other than being a Muslim woman. She def gives big Marianne Williamson vibes, but her coming out against defunding the police while also taking a HUGE pause before coming out in favor of a voluntary assault weapons buyback was bizarre. She doesn’t know if she wants to be to Kenyatta/Fetterman’s left or between them or what.

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https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_042722/

Sort of a weird poll, here's the breakdown and some highlights:

For each candidate, please tell me how likely it is that you will support them in the [Democratic/Republican] primary election for U.S. Senate – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely.  [Note: respondents who already voted were asked for whom they cast their ballot. The candidate chosen was assigned as “very likely” and all others as “not at all likely.”]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Very likely|Somewhat likely|Not too likely|Not at all likely|(VOL) Don’t know|(n)

DEMOCRAT                       
John Fetterman   44%   30%   5%   8%   13%   (406)
Malcolm Kenyatta   14%   26%   17%   28%   15%   (406)
Alexandria Khalil   8%   21%   17%   34%   19%   (406)
Conor Lamb   23%   36%   10%   14%   17%   (406)
                        
REPUBLICAN                       
Kathy Barnette   18%   33%   13%   20%   16%   (407)
Jeff Bartos   7%   38%   18%   21%   16%   (407)
George Bochetto   4%   24%   20%   31%   20%   (407)
Sean Gale   5%   25%   23%   28%   19%   (407)
David McCormick   19%   42%   12%   17%   11%   (407)
Dr. Mehmet Oz   22%   29%   11%   31%   8%   (407)
Carla Sands   9%   33%   21%   21%   17%   (407)                       

3/4.
I am going to read you a list of [Democratic/Republican] candidates running for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania this year. For each one, please tell me if you have definitely heard of them, not sure if you’ve heard of them, or if you’ve definitely not heard of them?
[If DEFINITELY HEARD OF:] For each of the following, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of them. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
   
Very favorable|Somewhat favorable|Somewhat unfavorable|Very unfavorable|Heard of, no opinion (VOL)|Not sure if heard of|Definitely not heard of|(n)

DEMOCRAT                               
John Fetterman   42%   26%   3%   2%   8%   7%   13%   (406)
Malcolm Kenyatta   12%   20%   3%   1%   6%   12%   45%   (406)
Alexandria Khalil   1%   10%   1%   0%   5%   18%   65%   (406)
Conor Lamb   19%   32%   4%   2%   7%   11%   24%   (406)
                                
REPUBLICAN                               
Kathy Barnette   15%   22%   3%   2%   10%   16%   34%   (407)
Jeff Bartos   5%   23%   5%   1%   15%   14%   36%   (407)
George Bochetto   1%   6%   3%   0%   2%   19%   68%   (407)
Sean Gale   1%   6%   2%   2%   3%   15%   70%   (407)
David McCormick   14%   37%   9%   6%   14%   8%   12%   (407)
Dr. Mehmet Oz   18%   30%   16%   21%   8%   2%   6%   (407)
Carla Sands   7%   18%   3%   1%   8%   12%   52%   (407)

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from April 20 to 25, 2022 with a probability-based random sample of Pennsylvania voters drawn from a list of registered voters who participated in at least one primary election since 2016. Interviews were conducted by a live telephone interviewer, in English, with 406 registered Democrats (113 landline and 293 cell phone) and 407 registered Republicans (133 landline and 274 cell phone). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for party registration, age, gender, race, education, and region based on state voter registration list information and U.S. Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter sample). For results based on each party’s sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
DEMOCRAT   REPUBLICAN
    
40% Male   51% Male
60% Female   49% Female
    
16% 18-34   10% 18-34
21% 35-49   17% 35-49
27% 50-64   36% 50-64
36% 65+   37% 65+
    
74% White   97% White
20% Black     1% Black
4% Hispanic     2% Hispanic
2% Asian/Other     0% Asian/Other
    
58% No degree   69% No degree
42% 4 year degree   31% 4 year degree

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I actually saw a Fetterman sign in Lititz yesterday, which is pretty crazy. I’ve seen one Lamb sign in Berks County and of course my own Kenyatta sign.

I’ve seen an absolute TON of Kathy Barnette stuff lately. Stickers and signs galore. Seems her base is aligning with Mastriano’s because I often see their stuff together.

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Barnette would be the best of the three candidates IMO for Republicans.

In a GE? Absolutely not. Maybe in 2020 before she was outed as a far-right extremist, but she literally participated in the insurrection and not only said the 2020 vote was rigged, but refused to concede in her own race when she lost by... 20%.

She has also used the term "globalist" multiple times in debates. She is absolutely the most extreme candidate in the primary.