PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Electability arguments one way or the other are stupid and circular. It is the least salient argument to make that one candidate hypothetically would do better than another one in the general. We saw this play out in large scale elections like Trump in 16, the Democratic primaries in 20, and in smaller scale elections like ME-Sen in 20. It's nonsensical to make this argument.

Primaries, as far as I'm concerned, should strictly be about ideology. If a candidate can win a majority or plurality of Democrats in a state like PA, all Democrats in PA should be willing to get behind them in the general. Anything beyond that is mere speculation. Vote for the candidate who aligns with your values and then push to get the Democratic nominee elected in November. It's that simple. Yes, from an ideological standpoint, I would not vote for Conor Lamb in the primary. Kenyatta, Fetterman, even Arkoosh align with my values more than he does. But Lamb aligns with my values significantly more than Oz, McCormick, Bartos, or whatever clown wins the GOP nomination would.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Fetterman has done more to sabotage his own campaign in the last couple weeks than any other candidate could've dreamed of doing to him.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

tfw everyone is fighting over Fetterman vs Lamb and you just want Malcolm Kenyatta to win

This is unironically how Kenyatta will win the primary

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I don't think it was posted, but Street is officially not running for Senate. Not like he was really exploring seriously in the first place:

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1483813097118867464?s=20

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Tough look for Fetterman:

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/john-fetterman-2022-senate-race-black-clergy-20220125.html&outputType=app-web-view

Fetterman’s campaign said his responsibilities presiding over the Senate on their first day of the 2022 session “made his attendance literally impossible.” The state constitution has provisions for the Senate President Pro Tempore to lead the chamber when the lieutenant governor is absent, and Fetterman has missed sessions before, though not frequently.

The Senate session in Harrisburg ended at 4:50 p.m. on Jan. 18, the day of the forum. The event in Philadelphia, roughly two hours away by car, began at 7 p.m.

In a letter Fetterman sent the clergy before the event, he apologized for missing it, said he hoped to speak with them another time, and highlighted some of the work he has done on economic inequality, criminal justice, and voting rights. “I understand how important the forum is,” he wrote, “and I very much wish that I could be there.” Fetterman also met last year with the host church’s pastor Alyn Waller, the campaign said

Fetterman’s campaign also canceled on a December forum organized by the group Indivisible Narberth and Beyond, which said his campaign hasn’t responded to requests to reschedule. In Western Pennsylvania, Progress PA, a coalition of progressive groups, is struggling to schedule him for a candidate event.

“We’ve reached out several times and it does not appear he’s available,” said Stacey Vernallis, a co-lead of Progress PA. “This is what democracy is at its finest — bringing candidates to the voters.”

Fetterman’s public events are often shared with the news media only after they’ve occurred. Multiple requests by Inquirer reporters to join him on the campaign trail have gone unanswered.

Nancy Kleinberg, a fundraiser and organizer in Montgomery County, said Fetterman backed out of a call with the Indivisible Narberth group and never responded to four attempts to reschedule. She’d planned to ask about the jogger incident. U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb (D., Pa.), Kenyatta, and Arkoosh all participated.

Tracy Baton, a Democratic activist in Western Pennsylvania, said even progressive voters from Fetterman’s part of the state have found him hard to reach.

“It’s not just that he doesn’t want to answer questions about specific issues right now, but he doesn’t feel he has to answer questions for the voters, period,” Baton said. “And that’s really problematic to me.”

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1486444376997904400?t=bFQgsKUL0ZZSJMs...

I don't think endorsements mean much to the average voter. This is huge for Malcolm Kenyatta.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Fetterman is gonna to win the primary

🛑 playing

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Area man meets with President:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1487149671491407877?s=20&t=rwJRLs...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Yeah, even without an official endorsement, it’s clear that Lamb is the favorite amongst the establishment types, which likely bodes well for him in the primary. It’s disappointing, but if he’s the nominee, he better be ready to push for some of his more progressive positions ($15/hr minimum wage, support for unions, enhancing voting rights) while moving to the left on issues like marijuana. I see him as the most likely candidate to blow it in the general because he’s so bland.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1488149831130533890

"Mid single digits" could be anywhere from 4-7 points, which is still pretty significant. But yeah, it's clear Lamb has momentum. I may need to vote strategically in the primary for Fetterman if it means staving off Lamb.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/blake_allen13/status/1488192770653237254?s=21

KENYATTA AT 29%?!?!?!

[Pheurton Skeurto]

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Data for Progress denying the internal poll claims

https://twitter.com/seanmcelwee/status/1488202687615311880?s=21

Well f--k.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Gisele Fetterman just posted this on Twitter. Kind of frustrating that the other names are blurred out:

https://twitter.com/giselefetterman/status/1488517498077347846?s=20&t=TqgGUH...

Trying to track down the full poll if it's been posted.

EDIT:

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1488505030978252800?s=20&t=TqgGUHnQ9YL7...

If these results are even remotely accurate, Fetterman is in a really good position this late in the game.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Q4 fundraising numbers:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1488523293531557894?s=20&t=byhZULKB9AW...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wow those are some embarrasing #s for the GOP, yikes.

If that D4P poll is anywhere correct, this is the time for Lamb to start airing ads. With 3 months to go, it's still basically based on name recognition. Kenyatta doesn't appear to have the $$ to do so but Lamb can. Though tbh i haven't seen ads for any of the Dem contenders but I have for Oz, McCormick, etc.

I was just thinking about this last night at the gym. I saw a pretty much nonstop cycle of Oz and McCormick ads, but I've never seen an ad for a Dem on TV, on Youtube, etc. Plenty on FB and IG and whatnot, but good old fashioned TV ads work, especially in a contentious primary.

I am very concerned about Kenyatta's low fundraising #s. Some of the groups endorsing him (WFP, Collective PAC, Brand New Congress, etc.) may be putting in an outsized amount of effort on his behalf, but how sustainable is that strategy especially as we close in on the primary date?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I mean, I agree that Fetterman has been kind of a political opportunist, but calling him "another Sinema"() because he "ditched Bernie in '20"() is just an absolutely smooth brain take.

Especially pulling for Kenyatta, who was one of Biden's earliest and most vocal supporters in PA...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Who the f**k calls their kid Coleman anyway?

When you take being from a coal mining area too seriously

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Arkoosh officially out:
https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1489626089240633353

Who's the likeliest beneficiary from this?

Kenyatta most likely, since she was bound to pry off some of his support from the Philly collar counties. Pennsylvanians vote very geographically in our primaries. However, she wasn't really enjoying much support to begin with so the benefit would be minimal anyway.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Arkoosh officially out:
https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1489626089240633353

Who's the likeliest beneficiary from this?

Kenyatta most likely, since she was bound to pry off some of his support from the Philly collar counties. Pennsylvanians vote very geographically in our primaries. However, she wasn't really enjoying much support to begin with so the benefit would be minimal anyway.

Ah. Thanks for the rundown.
Gun to head, if you have to guess the chance Kenyetta wins this, what was it before these news, and after?

Not great -> Slightly less not great, still not great

Kenyatta is a dark horse but he's not raising nearly as much money as Lamb or Fetterman. While it's true that Lamb and Fetterman may split the WEPA vote, it may not be enough to truly put Kenyatta over the top. I could very easily see Lamb or Fetterman doing just well enough in NEPA and Central PA to put them over the top.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Well, SCoPA announced today that the primaries are essentially on hold until the congressional maps are finalized, so there's a bit more time for Malcolm to get his name out and garner more support. However, if it comes down to it, I will vote strategically for Fetterman to deny Lamb the nomination. There's just too much at stake for this guy to win the primary. As I always say in posts like these, I will still support Lamb in the general if he wins the primary, but I do not want him to win the primary. The PAC money, the MORE Act vote, his hostility towards progressive causes...it all does not sit well with me.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Is this my false impression not being from PA, or is Fetterman indeed just running a medicore campaign? I hope he'll improve, because I don't want Lamb nominated.

He's been running a very lazy campaign, and I say that as a supporter. He's been virtually invisible outside of Twitter and seems to think he's entitled to the nomination. I worry about him as a candidate in the general.

Exactly this, especially the idea about him being entitled to the nomination. It's very off-putting and part of what drove me to Malcolm.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

And I oop--

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1501621866267566086?s=20&t=aw5-0m...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Honest question, why all the negativity about the Dem candidates in PA and Fetterman in particular? There has been no GE polling I have seen and the little Dem primary polling has Fetterman in the lead. Is there some scandal or gaffe I am missing or is this just the same doom saying for Democrats that is going on for every other race on this site?

The jogger incident is a big dark spot on Fetterman's record. He's also run a very lazy campaign.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Honest question, why all the negativity about the Dem candidates in PA and Fetterman in particular? There has been no GE polling I have seen and the little Dem primary polling has Fetterman in the lead. Is there some scandal or gaffe I am missing or is this just the same doom saying for Democrats that is going on for every other race on this site?

The jogger incident is a big dark spot on Fetterman's record. He's also run a very lazy campaign.

Isn't the jogger incident old news?

I mean, I'm not sure how much it means to the average real life voter, but it's a legitimate concern to know why he's so unwilling to apologize for it and why he felt it necessary to do it in the first place.