Let’s talk about Gavin Newsom 2024.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Newsom is not running in 2024 and I don't know why Republican hacks on Twitter are so convinced otherwise. Time is running out quickly for ballot access in early primary states. On the other hand, he obviously wants to be president, something which has been clear since he was just the mayor of San Francisco. And I could see him trying to position himself as the backup plan if Biden is incapacitated, though realistically the party would just go with Harris.

But his electoral record is frankly not all that impressive? California voted D+23 in 2012 and D+30 in both 2016 and 2020, but Newsom only won by 24 in 2018 and 18 in 2022, with the latter performance probably dooming several House Democrats. Gretchen Whitmer's performance in Michigan, even against an extremist Republican candidate, was far more impressive--winning by double digits in a Trump 2016 state on a coalition that both cemented Democratic suburban gains and peeled back segments of the Obama-Trump white working class. If you want someone with a more centrist (even libertarian-leaning) record, Jared Polis won re-election by 19 points in a Biden +13 state despite being a literal Redditor who plays League of Legends.

Regardless of what happens in 2024, Gavin Newsom will run in 2028, to be sure, and I think he will flop badly.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I know GOPers want to make it happen to embarrass Biden and play the "slick, liberal coastal elitist" card against Newsom, but it's not happening.

The president is a product. Ten years ago I would've definitely said Newsom was too slimy to become president, but he's become a seasoned media player. He was downright chummy with Hannity last night -- this is a guy who knows how to work the media. He's an upper class California man with charisma -- this is natural to him. Biden doesn't even rate in this regard, certainly not at his age.

When Democrats are complaining about the media they're losing. Obama understood this. Newsom lets liberals go back on offense.

It's true that Newsom, unlike Biden, recognizes the importance of going on the attack against right-wing narratives, but that's also the bare minimum for being a better candidate in a vacuum than Biden. I haven't seen a compelling reason why Whitmer, who has the same amount of experience as governor, a better record in said office, and an objectively stronger electoral record, wouldn't be preferable from a Democratic perspective.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So you're saying he can only win if Biden steps aside, something that has about a 0% chance of happening?

Bro, it's not a 0% chance. No it isn't. The actuarial tables don't support this.

Leaving that aside, don't act like it's impossible for an 80 year old, who's a lifelong Democratic Party team player (and has much less of an ego at this point) to step aside in favor of new blood. It could happen. Barack Obama will have to arrange a few meetings but it could happen. Yes it could.

Everything I've read about the decision process suggests that Biden absolutely does have an ego, and accordingly believes he is the only person who can defeat Trump. If he's not running it will be entirely for health reasons.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Gavin Newsom will not be the Democratic nominee in 2028 and certainly not in 2024. See you guys in five years.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

What's the Democratic equivalent of Gavin Newsom? In the sense that Newsom is someone who conservatives are obsessed with becoming the nominee in the future but who Democrats don't care about, or at least care significantly less about.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Making overtly hostile gestures to a crucial part of the Democratic base won't make him more appealing in a primary. This isn't 1992.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Excited to see him explain in a Democratic primary debate why he vetoed an insulin price cap which Republicans unanimously supported!
https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1710794433489482090?s=20

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

To the contrary of what my Democrat friends here think, Newsom would be an extremely difficult candidate for Republicans to beat.

He is objectively an electoral underperformer. Winning CA by 20% in 2022 while Whitmer won MI by 11% is not good.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

To the contrary of what my Democrat friends here think, Newsom would be an extremely difficult candidate for Republicans to beat.

He is objectively an electoral underperformer. Winning CA by 20% in 2022 while Whitmer won MI by 11% is not good.

The 2021 recall is much more significant to look at when looking at Newsom’s ability to campaign under pressure.

Whitmer is irrelevant and would never win a primary against Newsom.

His success there was much more a matter of his de facto opponent Larry Elder being a lunatic who ran an awful campaign.