Kanye is out (UPDATE: Kanye is in again)

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Elon Musk just endorsed. Will this hurt Biden or Trump more? Remember not even six months ago Ye was pretending to be a Trump sycophant in order to help Kim get people out of prison.

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Kanye was the first mainstream rapper to endorse ssm, all the way back in 2005. No matter what he will always have my respect for that. That was really a boss move.

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People are underestimating the amount of organization and work (and years of it, at that) that it takes to form an independent party, which is essentially what West would have to do and he only has a couple weeks to do it if he wants to get on any ballots.

He has the money, fanbase and ego to try, if nothing else.

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Kanye will bring people into his camp, and then will bring them to Trump when Trump makes him part of his campaign.

Rasmussen Poll few weeks ago had black support for Trump up since the protests, the more conservative black voters are going to become Republican. Kanye is kind of a way to help boost those voters to Trumps side.

The black vote has been taken for granted, and between Kanye, Tim Scott, Candace Owens and a lot of people I see on YouTube who are black trump supporters (with big followings) they know what rioting leads to. Detroit rioted in the 1960s & the city never recovered. Trump will probably win 30% of the black vote. Trumps voter base is working class people & a lot of black people, especially working class black men, have done a lot better financially under Trump than they ever did under Obama.

Trump will gain black support compared to 2016, but even if he does everything right he will have trouble hitting 13%.

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Kanye will bring people into his camp, and then will bring them to Trump when Trump makes him part of his campaign.

Rasmussen Poll few weeks ago had black support for Trump up since the protests, the more conservative black voters are going to become Republican. Kanye is kind of a way to help boost those voters to Trumps side.

The black vote has been taken for granted, and between Kanye, Tim Scott, Candace Owens and a lot of people I see on YouTube who are black trump supporters (with big followings) they know what rioting leads to. Detroit rioted in the 1960s & the city never recovered. Trump will probably win 30% of the black vote. Trumps voter base is working class people & a lot of black people, especially working class black men, have done a lot better financially under Trump than they ever did under Obama.

Trump will gain black support compared to 2016, but even if he does everything right he will have trouble hitting 13%.

Based on what?

The recent WaPo poll showing him much closer to Obama 2012 numbers than Hillary 2016 numbers with black people?

Complete bulls—t pulled out of your ass?

Literally nothing?

Which one?

Trump's support was highest among black men under age 35 in that poll. An increasing number of black Americans are first-generation Caribbean/African immigrants who are more like 75-80% Dem than 95%. First Step Act. Also I believe there will be a shy Trump vote as certain kinds of Trump voters are likely to ignore any media or organization, polling included, not directly connected to their bubble.

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Kanye will bring people into his camp, and then will bring them to Trump when Trump makes him part of his campaign.

Rasmussen Poll few weeks ago had black support for Trump up since the protests, the more conservative black voters are going to become Republican. Kanye is kind of a way to help boost those voters to Trumps side.

The black vote has been taken for granted, and between Kanye, Tim Scott, Candace Owens and a lot of people I see on YouTube who are black trump supporters (with big followings) they know what rioting leads to. Detroit rioted in the 1960s & the city never recovered. Trump will probably win 30% of the black vote. Trumps voter base is working class people & a lot of black people, especially working class black men, have done a lot better financially under Trump than they ever did under Obama.

Trump will gain black support compared to 2016, but even if he does everything right he will have trouble hitting 13%.

Based on what?

The recent WaPo poll showing him much closer to Obama 2012 numbers than Hillary 2016 numbers with black people?

Complete bulls—t pulled out of your ass?

Literally nothing?

Which one?

Trump's support was highest among black men under age 35 in that poll. An increasing number of black Americans are first-generation Caribbean/African immigrants who are more like 75-80% Dem than 95%. First Step Act. Also I believe there will be a shy Trump vote as certain kinds of Trump voters are likely to ignore any media or organization, polling included, not directly connected to their bubble.

Shy Trump vote is BS that has been thoroughly debunked.

As for younger black men more likely to support Trump, well if anything that just means any Kanye candidacy will HELP Biden because that’s probably the most likely group to vote for him.

In any case, does not change the FACT that Biden easily has AT LEAST somewhere between Hillary 2016 and Obama 2012 overall black support. There is literally no evidence or reason to believe that he will go DOWN from Hillary 2016, at the very least.

I hope you're correct, we can't afford another four years of Trump. But I don't think the black vote is as set in stone as most believe. Trump has become more detested in the cities and inner burbs recently, not less, with the rise of protests etc. so I think shy supporters are out there but no study or poll will detect it. This is PARTIALLY based on my gut feeling yes, which, not trying to toot my own horn, served me well in my 2016 predictions. I might also be completely wrong, no problem admitting that.

That being said, I also recall another poll from maybe a year back asking voters their mood on Trump, there were four or five options, the two negative options being "displeased" and "angry." Most white Dem voters chose angry but a slim majority of black Dem voters chose just displeased, not angry. Again, this leads me to believe there is more room to grow in the black community than conventional wisdom would suggest. I'll never vote for someone who makes me angry, but there's still a chance I'd vote for someone I merely displeased.

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Millennials are enthused to vote Trump out. Not many millennials are enthused to vote for Biden.

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That platform is most appealing to non voting conspiracy theorists and fringe fundamentalist Christians.

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That platform is most appealing to non voting conspiracy theorists and fringe fundamentalist Christians.

Yeah, I was gonna say. None of the stuff he is running on would actually appeal to the voters he could reasonably win over (younger, disillusioned people who don't like Biden or Trump).

Right. Somehow I find it hart to see any soft  Biden supporters abandoning him for an anti abortion, anti vax candidate with no tax or foreign policy plan who says God told him to run. Not to mention his answer on police brutality was also very Trumpy.

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There appears to be an FEC filling that looks legitimate:

https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00751701/1422253

Andre Bodiford is apparently a consultant for Kanye West.

He's obviously still running lol, this is Kanye.

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Does anyone Really think Biden has a realistic shot at the presidency RN?

He never had much of a chance, but after today he's basically done.

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Does anyone Really think Biden has a realistic shot at the presidency RN?

He never had much of a chance, but after today he's basically done.

Dk if you are being sarcastic but yeah, Trump is in the best position for re-election since reagan.

No I agree completely..Trump has a lot of supporters that the polls are missing and Kanye will likely siphon off 10-15% of the youth vote.

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Does anyone Really think Biden has a realistic shot at the presidency RN?

He never had much of a chance, but after today he's basically done.

Dk if you are being sarcastic but yeah, Trump is in the best position for re-election since reagan.

I'm sure having a guy who polls like this on the ballot in Oklahoma is going to utterly devastate Biden.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1282768444484734978?s=19

People didn't think he was really running.. Now that he is, I'd expect to see Biden take a 4-5 point hit at minimum.

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Is this going to hurt Biden?

I should think so. The deadline may have passed in Florida but there's still plenty of time for him to get on the ballot in Arizona and Wisconsin, in which case it's game over for Uncle Joe.

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In addition, let's look at the requirements for other states: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates

There are only two other states Kanye can get ballot access on just paying a fee: Louisiana and Vermont. (Technically Colorado too but the FEC filing deadline there has passed.) Neither is a swing state or large. Looking at the largest states he's already failed in Texas and Florida. New York requires 30k signatures by 7/30. California almost 200k 8/7. As noted above, it would probably take until the end of July for Kanye to even rent campaign office space and get the infrastructure set up to start collecting sigs. So that means he's unlikely to be on the ballot on any of the four most populated states. Also Michigan's deadline is today. And Pennsylvania was covered here.

As for easy states, Tennessee only requires 275 signatures. New Jersey does only 800, but also has a filing deadline of 7/27. Wisconsin's 2000 signatures by 8/4 doesn't seem too absurd, but that's over 100 signatures a day for a campaign that only exists on paper so far. He needs to act fast. There's a handful of states that only require 1000, but the largest of these is Washington, and the only ones with a deadline of less than a month away are Idaho, Mississippi, Rhode Island and Utah. So basically assuming he actually puts effort into this, Tennessee is still the largest state Kanye can feasibly expect ballot access in. Furthermore no states he easily could are swing states. The easiest might be Iowa with 1500 signatures required in about a month, but even that's a pretty heavy lift for a campaign that hasn't established infrastructure at all yet.

Now...is such a campaign in such few states going to be included in polls or be treated by the media as a viable alternative to Biden and Trump?

Yes. Our media has no shame.