COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[jimrtex]

Non-compliant "persons" are not important, let along very important, and it is questionable whether they are even persons.

Those with the SLAVE tattoo will know they are children of the State, and the governor loves them just as much as her own children.

I know this is supposed to be a critique of libs / non-libertarians, but not all of us think like SJW authoritarians. There are also such things as "context" and "nuance", but taking those into account makes criticizing us a lot harder, doesn't it Jim?

I respect that anti-social distancing libertarians count as "persons".  We aren't children of the state, but we need to act as a community to avoid unecessary deaths in rare public health emergencies. Hardore anti-collectivism doesn't mix with serious large scale emergencies.

The 13th Amendment only bans involuntary slavery. The SLAVE tattoo would be taken voluntarily by individuals. It is hardly collectivist if one embraces their status. It is the essence of liberty. You yourself wrote that distancing libertarians are antisocial.

[jimrtex]

U. of Cambridge scraps face-to-face lectures for entire 2020-21 academic year.

Perhaps large-scale lectures should be eliminated entirely.

If there are 100 students, what possibility of interaction is there?

The greater risk is likely in living and dining quarters especially in dorms.

[jimrtex]

Seeing reports that several states are reporting combined antibody and PCR/viral tests. This is bad for a couple of reasons, but some people are claiming it will artificially lower the reported positive rate. I don't really understand why this would be unless there's some very big difference in who is being tested.

Seems to me like if anything combining these tests would artificially raise the positive rate, because antibody tests are essentially a record of ever having been infected while a viral test is only a record of being infected right now. So combining these tests and preventing them as viral tests would suggest that there are more infections happening right now/the last couple weeks than there really are.

Can anybody help me understand why these would lower the positive rate and not inflate it?

Texas had been combining antibody and viral tests.

Texas COVID-19 dashboard

Beginning on 5/13 they began reporting them separately. Beginning 5/19 antibody tests were removed from the denominator in calculating the positivity rate. It does not indicate whether positive antibody tests are being included in the numerator. Perhaps not, because they do not indicate a COVID-19 test.

A curiosity: They had been reporting Cases, Deaths, Active Cases, and Recovered (estimate), The estimate was apparently calculated based on a method similar to that used by Meclazine (X weeks after a case is determined, the patient is either dead or recovered).

As you would expect the sum of deaths, active cases, and recovered cases equaled precisely the total number of cases.

Now they are reporting: Reported Cases, Deaths, Active Cases (estimate), and Recovered (estimate).

The sum of deaths, active cases, and recovered, now exceed the number of reported cases.

They may be making an inference which is likely valid that there are persons who are actively infected who have not had a swab shoved up their nostril.

[jimrtex]

- There’s to much emphasis on rates of change and not enough on overall per capita numbers.  A state that has gone from 10 case per million people to 11 cases per million is seen as in worse shape than a state that goes from 1000 cases per million to 990 cases per million.

A simple metric would be cases per million detected in last three weeks.

This would indicate the percentage of the population that could infect other persons (or were recently infected by other persons).

[jimrtex]

Anybody who doesnt wear a mask in public places should be arrested for reckless endangerment. Plain and simple.

Who is being endangered?

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/maggiemfox/status/1265597868724936704?s=20

The tweet is misleading.

What the CDC says that if a test produces 5% false positives, and is used in a population with 5% past-infection rate, then there is about a 50% chance that a positive test result will not actually indicate any immunity.

In a population with 50% past-infection rate, then there is about a 95% chance that a positive test will be accurate.

The CDC also outlines various strategies for improving testing results.

Bottom line: Don't depend on twitter for your medical advice. You should instead rely on trusted sources like Atlas.

[jimrtex]

In the meantime, mask orders continue to spread, although their speed has declined somewhat in recent weeks. In Colorado, Governor Polis issued an order yesterday allowing businesses to deny service to customers who do not wear masks: https://gazette.com/news/no-mask-no-service-polis-order-gives-business-owners-right-of-refusal/article_9c5bd300-a697-11ea-adf6-53f2e7c59fb5.html. Now, this isn't a full-blown mask mandate, in contrast to what other Governors-primarily in the Northeast and Midwest-have imposed. But it's a step in that direction. How sustainable are these orders going to be when it gets very hot?

The order should require prominent signage so persons can know before they get out of their car that masks are required. It also does not state the means of removal.

"Our Masks are Our Passport to the Colorado We Love"

How about

"Work Will Set You Free"

"Thank You Dear Comrade Polis for a Happy Childhood!"

"Colorado Above All"

[jimrtex]

In the meantime, mask orders continue to spread, although their speed has declined somewhat in recent weeks. In Colorado, Governor Polis issued an order yesterday allowing businesses to deny service to customers who do not wear masks: https://gazette.com/news/no-mask-no-service-polis-order-gives-business-owners-right-of-refusal/article_9c5bd300-a697-11ea-adf6-53f2e7c59fb5.html. Now, this isn't a full-blown mask mandate, in contrast to what other Governors-primarily in the Northeast and Midwest-have imposed. But it's a step in that direction. How sustainable are these orders going to be when it gets very hot?

The order should require prominent signage so persons can know before they get out of their car that masks are required. It also does not state the means of removal.

"Our Masks are Our Passport to the Colorado We Love"

How about

"Work Will Set You Free"

"Thank You Dear Comrade Polis for a Happy Childhood!"

"Colorado Above All"

Don't be dumb.

This is the official state slogan:

"Our Masks are Our Passport to the Colorado We Love"

This was the official visitor's slogan, until someone pointed out it would not look good in the German translation:

"Colorado Above All"

[jimrtex]

In the meantime, mask orders continue to spread, although their speed has declined somewhat in recent weeks. In Colorado, Governor Polis issued an order yesterday allowing businesses to deny service to customers who do not wear masks: https://gazette.com/news/no-mask-no-service-polis-order-gives-business-owners-right-of-refusal/article_9c5bd300-a697-11ea-adf6-53f2e7c59fb5.html. Now, this isn't a full-blown mask mandate, in contrast to what other Governors-primarily in the Northeast and Midwest-have imposed. But it's a step in that direction. How sustainable are these orders going to be when it gets very hot?

The order should require prominent signage so persons can know before they get out of their car that masks are required. It also does not state the means of removal.

"Our Masks are Our Passport to the Colorado We Love"

How about

"Work Will Set You Free"

"Thank You Dear Comrade Polis for a Happy Childhood!"

"Colorado Above All"

You're a blue avatar... why are you supporting the big government authoritarian measure of the government FORCING private businesses or private property to serve potentially pandemic-spreading maskless customers?

This is the official Colorado publicity campaign:

"Our Masks are Our Passport to the Colorado We Love"

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/SeamusHughes/status/1270405441302953985

The company had not reported financials since 2015, said on March 2 it had developed a COVID-19 test. The SEC stopped trading on April 13.

This is actually OLD news.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/paulaEdwyer/status/1271433212615671810

Actually it is in the parking lot (and next to the Astrodome). It seems like if Bloomberg needed a stock photo, they could have got a picture of a cowboy.



When it was built, it was revealed that there were outrageous salaries associated with the temporary structures (I'm not sure how they would hold up in a hurricane or a flooding event). There were two public relations specialists at $2000 (sic) per day, who were contractually forbidden from communicating with the press.

[jimrtex]

+3,909 new cases in Texas alone today on Worldometer, and they have not even finished updating for the day...

There's a note underneath the chart that says this includes 1,500 old cases from state prisons.

It is up to +4,412 now (reminder, the previous  was 2,437) and STILL not done reporting for the day, so even if you want to declare prisoners un-persons, still looks like record highs. As for prisoners, unfortunately they still need treatment and take up limited medical capacity, and the virus can be (and no doubt has been) spread from prisoners to staff and visitors, and from there to the general population.

If a prisoner was infected in April and reported in June, does it mean that the spread is happening now?

Let's take a look at Anderson County. Before today, there were 102 cases total. 887 were added today.

But if we look at the TDCJ dashboard, for the Beto, Gurney, and Michael units in Anderson County.

Gurney: Offenders: 3 active, 145 recovered.
Beto: Offenders: 10 active, 292 recovered.
Michael: Offenders: 5 active, 426 recovered.

That is, most of the "new" cases are no longer active cases.

[jimrtex]

Here’s an interesting article about the spike in new cases in Florida among children:
https://www.naplesnews.com/story/news/2020/06/15/young-floridians-test-positive-coronavirus-almost-twice-rate/3190098001/

Some notable stats:
- Children are almost twice as likely to test positive for covid as adults (9.2% vs. 5%)
- Children who test positive are more than five times less likely to be hospitalized than adults
- More than 3,000 children have tested positive in FL so far, but zero have died

There could be a sampling bias.

Almost all children under the age of 18 live with a parent or a guardian. If an adult in a household is infected, every other person is going to be tested. They likely did not wear masks in the house or practice social distancing. They might even had physical contact. Billy skins his knee and is wailing. Mom goes over and gives him an elbow bump?

[jimrtex]

This is a case where IMO Hidalgo should simply issue the stay at home order and begin enforcing it.

If Abbott wants to stop it, let him send the Texas Rangers to arrest her.

If he does, when things get worse (which is unavoidable at this point due to the time lag of infection to hospitalization), Abbott will take the blame.

Or alternatively, maybe Abbott will fold. In which case many lives could still be saved.

So the upside is, if Abbott caves, lives are saved. If Abbott doesn't cave, then Abbott takes the blame when things get bad. Sounds pretty win-win to me.

Have you ever heard Hidalgo speak? You'd want your third grader out enforcing it saying with her sweet wavering voice we hope you voluntarily wear masks but it is the law and there is a fine?

The police and constables said that they weren't going to be enforcing her earlier order, because she said it was discretionary, and that they had real criminals to arrest. Ordinary citizens were taking food out to seniors who were quarantining (they'd leave the groceries on the door step). You'd want those people arrested for not staying at home?

Hopefully there will not be a hurricane in the next two years or it will be the second coming of Mary Blanco.

My apartment complex sent me a notice about the mask order. Like everything they actually want people to read it was short and to the point (only contracts are long, and they mark the places where you have to initial, so you don't have to read it).

Attached was Hidalgo's order. There were four _pages_ of whereas, and then a bunch of text that was so legalese that I didn't bother to read it.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

He didn't seem to get much crowd reaction.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

He didn't seem to get much crowd reaction.

The speech was given in front of a small crowd, in accordance with public health/social distancing guidelines. Makes sense, given he - unlike the incumbent President - actually knows how to responsibly run a campaign in light of the current circumstances.

How many individuals in this small crowd?

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

He didn't seem to get much crowd reaction.

The speech was given in front of a small crowd, in accordance with public health/social distancing guidelines. Makes sense, given he - unlike the incumbent President - actually knows how to responsibly run a campaign in light of the current circumstances.

How many individuals in this small crowd?

Just a handful of PA families who'd met with Biden to tell him that the ACA had helped them access life-saving health care & avoid financial hardships, in addition to the reporters present.

So more than two? Two's company ...

[jimrtex]

In Florida, the link between positive tests (cases), hospitalizations, and deaths has completely broken down.  Positive tests are up 5x since early June but hospital admits and deaths are no higher than mid-May.

Deaths do indeed lag (though only by weeks, not months) but hospitalizations should lag only by days.  Either the virus has become truly less virulent or (as I mostly suspect) the people getting infected/tested are far less at risk than they were in the earlier stages of the pandemic.

Minnesota has just reported that their most infected age group is now 20-29, surpassing 30-39. They have also noted four bars, two in Mankato, and two in Minneapolis's Dinkytown neighborhood just off the University of Minnesota's campus, as spreading infections.

Bars are likely to have a high level of social interaction - you are wanting to meet someone  you increase your odds by more interactions. No one is likely to wear masks as they spit beer at each other, and alcohol reduces inhibitions.

[jimrtex]

You have got to watch this to believe. Looks like things are likely to keep getting worse, at least in Texas...

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1276886772287442944

Isn’t this just evidence that a lot of people are getting tested?

This site is now listed as COVID-19 testing by appointment only. Some other sites by the same chain (of urgent care facilities) are indicating no appointment is necessary.

This is pretty close to Washington Avenue (bars/bar-hopping), and until recently the Heights (where the clinic is located was dry). Bars statewide were closed at Friday noon. It is possible that there were outbreaks at the bars, and on Friday might have urged would-be patrons to get tested and listed nearby testing locations.

Testing statewide had been pretty steady statewide around 30K per day, while the positivity rate stayed low around 5% or declined some. This could mean that testing had become fairly easy to get done, but there was less urgency when 95% were coming back negative. If a urgent care clinic wanted to drum up business, they might put on their sign out front "COVID-19 NO APPOINTMENT NEEDED".

Then all of a sudden there was a rush (statewide tests are now over 40,000 per day and positivity is up to 13%) which means people are actually experiencing symptoms before being tested just to confirm what they already suspected) and a line developed. If you have a fever or a cough, or a friend who was infected, you aren't going to think, I will wait until Monday to call my primary care physician (if you are in your 20s, particularly if male, you don't have a primary-care physician, and when you call your Mom, she will remind you that Dr. Jones was your pediatrician, and he retired 7 or 8 years ago). You are going to want it done now, and will get in the end of the line, figuring it was like the run on toilet paper.

So I drove by the urgent care facility to see if there was a line today. Absolutely nobody outside. Hah! I thought, they have switched to appointments! I pulled in the parking lot to look a little closer. On all the doors there was a white sheet of paper: "Out of COVID-19 Tests".

[jimrtex]

You have got to watch this to believe. Looks like things are likely to keep getting worse, at least in Texas...

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1276886772287442944

Isn’t this just evidence that a lot of people are getting tested?

This site is now listed as COVID-19 testing by appointment only. Some other sites by the same chain (of urgent care facilities) are indicating no appointment is necessary.

This is pretty close to Washington Avenue (bars/bar-hopping), and until recently the Heights (where the clinic is located was dry). Bars statewide were closed at Friday noon. It is possible that there were outbreaks at the bars, and on Friday might have urged would-be patrons to get tested and listed nearby testing locations.

Testing statewide had been pretty steady statewide around 30K per day, while the positivity rate stayed low around 5% or declined some. This could mean that testing had become fairly easy to get done, but there was less urgency when 95% were coming back negative. If a urgent care clinic wanted to drum up business, they might put on their sign out front "COVID-19 NO APPOINTMENT NEEDED".

Then all of a sudden there was a rush (statewide tests are now over 40,000 per day and positivity is up to 13%) which means people are actually experiencing symptoms before being tested just to confirm what they already suspected) and a line developed. If you have a fever or a cough, or a friend who was infected, you aren't going to think, I will wait until Monday to call my primary care physician (if you are in your 20s, particularly if male, you don't have a primary-care physician, and when you call your Mom, she will remind you that Dr. Jones was your pediatrician, and he retired 7 or 8 years ago). You are going to want it done now, and will get in the end of the line, figuring it was like the run on toilet paper.

So I drove by the urgent care facility to see if there was a line today. Absolutely nobody outside. Hah! I thought, they have switched to appointments! I pulled in the parking lot to look a little closer. On all the doors there was a white sheet of paper: "Out of COVID-19 Tests".

If they are rationing testing, that is definitely a very bad thing, and would go a long way to explaining a rise in positivity rate.  Obviously the more difficult you make it to get a test, the fewer asymptomatic people are going to seek one out.  

Texas should certainly be doing way more than 40k tests per day right now.  That puts them well below the per capita average of the US.

Who said that they were rationing testing?

Texas is right at the national average in tests per case detected.

The highest are in remote states like Alaska and Hawaii, which have positivity rates below 1%. The lowest were states like New Jersey and New York. In the latter, they were basically bringing in the scoops and taking the bodies to the mass grave in the Bronx. Treatment involved putting lime between the layers of caskets. In the former, they could just go around sticking nasal probes up random strangers for the fun of it.

There are scores of testing sites in Houston. The official sites don't show the urgent care facilities, which do show up on Google. If you are having 30,000 people being tested, you don't distribute 60,000 tests daily. There is likely a shelf life. I explained why that particular site probably had a run on supplies. If they had been sending enough supplies to that site for the last three months they would have been throwing away the tests in a dumpster.

[jimrtex]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/06/27/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

Look


Source from the article

Anyway looks like at least in MN that its more young people getting the cases.
And of course the article doesn't even the theory that protests could have caused part of this shift.

That is pretty dramatic. Notice that the boom in 20-29 is pushing down the percentages for all other groups. There is also an increase in 0-19 group, which might actually be 15-19 and many children being asymptomatic or extremely mild cases (e.g. a slight fever for a day).

I had read another story, without a graph, and I was under the impression that the 20-29 had just edged past the 30-39, but nothing so dramatic.

That article had mentioned four bars where there had been outbreaks, two in Mankato and two in Minneapolis adjacent to the University of Minnesota campus. Mankato is home of Minnesota State, and it looks like the drinking establishments are downtown rather than around the campus.

Student bars and protests are likely to have an overlap.

I think the increase in Texas is likely do to increased travel and socializing. There has been a big jump in San Antonio, which has before been one of the least affected Texas city. San Antonio is a big tourist town, and it is quite normal to go there for a weekend.

Travis (Austin) has had a jump, but a bigger jump in neighboring Williamson and Hays, which suggests more suburban people driving into Austin to meet with friends. There are also upticks in all kinds of smaller counties, where 10 cases can mean a high rate. People may be traveling more after being cooped up for three months.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/ThatGuy3002/status/1277364577777442816

Is that good? /s

Do you think that almost 15,000 tests with 299 positive (2.0% positivity) were reported eight days after Juneteenth;

And 352 tests with 352 positive (100% positivity) were reported  eight days after the Trump rally in Tulsa, the next day?

IOW do you think the number of tests dropped by a factor of 40, and the positivity rate shot up by a factor of 50 the next day?

Let's assume that this trend continues for another day. There will be 9 tests with 5000% positivity the next day.

Are you familiar with the expression GIGO? Garbage In, Garbage Out. You might want to lay off the sugary-soft drinks.

p.s. An OKC TV reporter noted that OK never reports total tests on weekends, just the number of positives.

[jimrtex]

Let's assume that this trend continues for another day. There will be 9 tests with 5000% positivity the next day.

Are you familiar with the expression GIGO? Garbage In, Garbage Out.

That's your model you're throwing garbage into. There's no reason to think the trend will continue or that it would continue at a linear rate of increase.

There is no trend.

[jimrtex]

I updated my Stata model to include test positivity rate and its interaction with case.  These are the results, estimating daily deaths from April 1 to June 30.

Here, "avgcases" is the average number of cases over the previous 7 days, while "averagecase7" is the average for the 7 days before that (etc. for 14, 21, and 28 days before that). "{osperc" is test positivity rate on the given day, while "posminus7" is the lagged positivity rate 7 days earlier (etc for 14, 21, and 28 days earlier).  "Casespos" (and its lagged variables) are the interaction between total cases and positivity rate.  "Deathminus7" is the number of deaths 7 days earlier.  I also include fixed effects for each day of the week.

The overall impact of lagged cases is still very similar.  Average cases lagged one week are the only variable with any substantive or statistical significance on their own.  

For the most part, adding positivity rate has no significant effect, with one exception.  Positivity is significant in interaction with 14-day lagged cases.  So while cases lagged 7-days always have an effect on deaths, cases lagged 14-days only have a major effect when test positivity (also lagged 14-days) was high.  For example, an additional 1000 cases 14 days earlier would result in 8 additional deaths when test positivity was 3%, but 21 additional deaths when positivity was 10%.  Current cases, as well as cases 3 weeks ago or more, never have a significant effect on deaths.

. reg deaths deathminus7 days avgcases avgcases7 avgcases14 avgcases21 avgcases28 posperc posminus7 p
> osminus14 posminus21 posminus28 casespos casespos7 casespos14 casespos21 casespos28 i.weekday if da
> ys>31&days<123

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        91
-------------+----------------------------------   F(24, 66)       =     60.11
       Model |  35728644.6        24  1488693.53   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  1634438.67        66  24764.2223   R-squared       =    0.9563
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.9403
       Total |  37363083.3        90   415145.37   Root MSE        =    157.37

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      deaths |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 deathminus7 |   .4674046    .104832     4.46   0.000     .2581007    .6767085
        days |  -11.89638   5.265929    -2.26   0.027    -22.41015   -1.382614
    avgcases |  -.0095963   .0120319    -0.80   0.428    -.0336188    .0144262
   avgcases7 |   .0395809   .0173289     2.28   0.026     .0049827    .0741792
  avgcases14 |  -.0491985   .0171413    -2.87   0.006    -.0834222   -.0149747
  avgcases21 |   .0159292   .0149175     1.07   0.289    -.0138546    .0457129
  avgcases28 |  -.0051158   .0109589    -0.47   0.642     -.026996    .0167645
     posperc |  -1690.344   2372.583    -0.71   0.479    -6427.358     3046.67
   posminus7 |   715.4029   2176.551     0.33   0.743    -3630.221    5061.027
  posminus14 |  -5678.463   2039.865    -2.78   0.007    -9751.185   -1605.741
  posminus21 |   676.9361   1301.756     0.52   0.605    -1922.104    3275.976
  posminus28 |  -99.96956   868.0994    -0.12   0.909    -1833.186    1633.247
    casespos |   .0746608   .0778795     0.96   0.341    -.0808307    .2301522
   casespos7 |  -.0269732   .0704437    -0.38   0.703    -.1676185    .1136721
  casespos14 |   .2120465   .0679098     3.12   0.003     .0764602    .3476329
  casespos21 |  -.0446484   .0502626    -0.89   0.378    -.1450009    .0557042
  casespos28 |   .0143544   .0445213     0.32   0.748    -.0745353     .103244
             |
     weekday |
          2  |   82.38582   73.89428     1.11   0.269    -65.14887    229.9205
          3  |   420.2182   111.0866     3.78   0.000     198.4268    642.0097
          4  |   343.6183   116.7902     2.94   0.004     110.4391    576.7975
          5  |   227.4863   113.5001     2.00   0.049     .8759877    454.0966
          6  |    136.587   126.1011     1.08   0.283     -115.182     388.356
          7  |   101.4743   93.32886     1.09   0.281    -84.86273    287.8114
          8  |  -281.1558   156.3947    -1.80   0.077    -593.4079    31.09634
             |
       _cons |    1633.96   693.1888     2.36   0.021     249.9637    3017.956
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you click on "Source Mode" in the lower right, and then paste from a spreadsheet, it will be formatted so the columns line up better. Note clicking on "Source Mode" actually toggles you into "Display Mode". You can click on "Display Mode" to return you to Source Mode and edit any text.

I'd probably also trim some of your digits.

Trying to make sense of the numbers. Is it the fact that coef has the largest absolute value that indicates that deaths are lagging detection by about 14 days?? That the coef for 7 days is the next largest suggests that if might be less than 14, but to to refine the number may be impossible due to the weekly periodicity of reporting??

[jimrtex]

I'd really like to see the partisan difference in COVID infections and deaths.  You can't figure out individual partisan leans, but maybe divide it up into counties/precincts and weight by Trump/Clinton vote %.

My guess?

The initial wave mostly hit Clinton voters, because it was spreading most quickly in big cities with very concentrated populations.

But this "second wave" (not really the second wave, we still have that to look forward to) is going to be 70-80% Trump voters.  Those are the people not wearing masks.  Those are the people not socially distancing.  Those are the people refusing to take this seriously.  And those are the people who are going to get infected and die.  And thanks to them, we won't be able to re-open.  Thanks to them, plenty of their friends and family will also get sick and die.  Ironically, thanks to them, Trump's odds of re-election will continue to dwindle as the crisis continues.

There is evidence that the new infectees are disproportionately young (in Hays County, Texas, over half are 20-29). The superspreader events were the protests/riots, followed by bar hopping to brag about their exploits. Those requiring hospitalization are likely to be heavier drug users.

Quite like leftist Democrats.