KY Amendment 2 discussion thread (user search)
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  KY Amendment 2 discussion thread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What do you think will be the result of the Constitutional Amendment 2 referendum in Kentucky?
#1
YES wins - pro-life language added to constitution
 
#2
NO wins - anti-abortion amendment defeated
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 41

Author Topic: KY Amendment 2 discussion thread  (Read 4417 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: November 07, 2022, 08:03:03 PM »

The other difference between Kentucky and Kansas is that Republican voters in Kentucky are far more evangelical than their counterparts in Kansas.  Identical amendments (some even explicitly saying "no exceptions") passed in West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure this one passes, but it won't be by the 60/40 presidential margin.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2022, 11:33:31 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2022, 11:50:53 PM by Skill and Chance »


59% Yes

Honestly less than I would have expected. There is an interesting echo of the old divide in SE Kentucky between the traditionally Democratic and traditionally Republican areas, too.

IDK, my overall impression is that the amendment did "well enough" in Eastern KY (generally >60% Yes even in the ancestral Dem coalfields) but underperformed more dramatically elsewhere. 

A similar amendment passed narrowly in WV back in 2018 (you could argue it was all theoretical back then, but IDK with Kavanaugh having just been confirmed).  Interestingly, the KY pro-life amendment did better in Eastern KY than the WV amendment did in Southern WV.  There just weren't any large cities to vote it down in WV.

The Tennessee pro-life amendment back in 2014 massively underperformed in the eastern mountains but still generally passed.  The big difference from KY 2022 was that it passed in all the Nashville suburbs counties.

The 2020 Louisiana pro-life amendment was in its own world where the pro-life vote clearly exceeds the generic Republican vote.  Over 60% yes just about everywhere but downtown NOLA and Baton Rouge and over 70% in most of the rural counties.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2022, 03:38:57 PM »

The other difference between Kentucky and Kansas is that Republican voters in Kentucky are far more evangelical than their counterparts in Kansas.  Identical amendments (some even explicitly saying "no exceptions") passed in West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

L

I mean, it was quite a lot closer in Kentucky. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2022, 09:50:46 AM »


This is a very interesting dynamic where, opposite of the remaining swing state R governors, Beshear owes his original election margin to people who were quite seriously pro-life despite strongly taking the opposite side of the issue.
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