KY Amendment 2 discussion thread

[ReallySuper]

I went canvassing this weekend in a relatively small town/rural county (Trump +25, Beshear and Bevin basically tied) and encountered mostly No voters (although I think this is more to do with being given a list of mostly liberal/left-leaning doors to knock than with the general mood of the state). A number of people said they were pro-life but that this amendment went too far by prohibiting abortion in every case with no exceptions, or that they felt it wasn't the government's or the constitution's place to interfere.

Obviously, a similar amendment was defeated in Kansas this year, so I'm hopeful it will be replicated here. But equally obviously: 1. Kentucky is not the same as Kansas, and 2. this amendment being on the November ballot in a red-trending year rather than in August doesn't help. On the other hand, the Yes and No campaigns in Kansas were fairly evenly matched in terms of campaign spending. In Kentucky, the No campaign has outspent the Yes side nearly 15:1 and has outraised them 8:1. But then it seems like every church in the Commonwealth has done free campaigning for Yes, so we'll see what happens.

[EastwoodS]

Yeah, well I do not want my tax dollars going to pay for someone’s abortion..

[MillennialModerate]

Yeah, well I do not want my tax dollars going to pay for someone’s abortion..

They likely won’t. Fiscal concerns isn’t a justification for taking someone’s freedom away

[TML]

It could very well be the case that the results of this amendment/ballot measure may differ considerably from the results of D vs. R statewide contests, just like they have in other states in recent years. For example, in 2020 people in FL voted for a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage on the same day they voted for Trump for President (the minimum wage ballot measure ran 13 points ahead of Biden). For this particular ballot measure, it could very well be the case that the "No" vote wins simultaneously alongside Rand Paul for Senate.

[Adam Griffin]

I think it'll be close one way or another. Given higher turnout than we saw in KS is guaranteed (probably worth 3-5 points margin-wise in favor of anti-abortionists) and the sheer partisan balance of the state relative to a state like KS (11 points margin-wise more in favor of Trump than KS in 2020), I'm not sure I'd take a bet on this outside the standard polling margin of error under a 50/50 outcome.

Based on the above approximations, I'd nerf the amendment margin relative to the 2022-KS outcome by at least 14-16 points (KS abortion amendment failed by 18).

[ReallySuper]

Yeah, well I do not want my tax dollars going to pay for someone’s abortion..

I hope you know that your tax dollars don't do that now and wouldn't do that regardless of if the amendment is defeated, since public financing of abortion in Kentucky has been prohibited by law since 1980.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The other difference between Kentucky and Kansas is that Republican voters in Kentucky are far more evangelical than their counterparts in Kansas.  Identical amendments (some even explicitly saying "no exceptions") passed in West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

[bagelman]

The other difference between Kentucky and Kansas is that Republican voters in Kentucky are far more evangelical than their counterparts in Kansas.  Identical amendments (some even explicitly saying "no exceptions") passed in West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

That's fair, but those amendments passed before Dobbs. We'll see more pro-choice turnout because these bans would be real, instead of amounting to a protest vote.

[seskoog]

I think it’ll be close either way. My guess is the pro-life side wins by 3-5, but this will definitely be closer to TN and WV referenda than the AL and LA referenda.

[EastwoodS]

Yeah, well I do not want my tax dollars going to pay for someone’s abortion..

They likely won’t. Fiscal concerns isn’t a justification for taking someone’s freedom away

Yes it absolutely is

[Skill and Chance]

The other difference between Kentucky and Kansas is that Republican voters in Kentucky are far more evangelical than their counterparts in Kansas.  Identical amendments (some even explicitly saying "no exceptions") passed in West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure this one passes, but it won't be by the 60/40 presidential margin.

[bagelman]

Yeah, well I do not want my tax dollars going to pay for someone’s abortion..

They likely won’t. Fiscal concerns isn’t a justification for taking someone’s freedom away

Yes it absolutely is

No it is not. I'm not the most pro-choice guy, but if someone's paying out of pocket for an abortion, none of your money is involved anyway.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

It'll be my pleasure to vote for it. 

I suppose it'll pass by 5-10 points.

[EastwoodS]

Yeah, well I do not want my tax dollars going to pay for someone’s abortion..

They likely won’t. Fiscal concerns isn’t a justification for taking someone’s freedom away

Yes it absolutely is

No it is not. I'm not the most pro-choice guy, but if someone's paying out of pocket for an abortion, none of your money is involved anyway.

That’s fine. Pay for your own hoebortion

[ReallySuper]

Update with half the vote in:

No - 55.3%
437,410

Yes - 44.7%
353,283

[Schiff for Senate]

The other difference between Kentucky and Kansas is that Republican voters in Kentucky are far more evangelical than their counterparts in Kansas.  Identical amendments (some even explicitly saying "no exceptions") passed in West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

This - KS has always been way less evangelical (and thus, a lot less socially conservative) than KY. Pretty much the entire GOP base in the South/Appalachia would spring for an abortion ban, or most of it anyway, much more than in KS (KS also seems to really have a penchant for more moderate and pragmatic conservatism and more moderate and pragmatic Republicans - and it's not just the abortion amendment). Regarding the Deep South, rural black Democrats, I think, some at least, are still pro-life...whether that extends to supporting a partial or total abortion ban, I don't know, but they're definitely more pro-life than the typical Democrat is.

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah, well I do not want my tax dollars going to pay for someone’s abortion..

They likely won’t. Fiscal concerns isn’t a justification for taking someone’s freedom away

Yes it absolutely is

No it is not. I'm not the most pro-choice guy, but if someone's paying out of pocket for an abortion, none of your money is involved anyway.

That’s fine. Pay for your own hoebortion

Does this apply to rape/incest abortions, as well? Should poor women who get raped have to pay for abortion as well?

[Schiff for Senate]

Update with half the vote in:

No - 55.3%
437,410

Yes - 44.7%
353,283

52% in: 55.0-45.0% (442,516-363,969) NO

Obviously the amendment won't fail by 10 points, so is there a particular region (likely including Louisville and/or Lexington) these first half of votes have come from? Or is this mail-in votes being counted first? (Does KY even have mail-in voting?)

[ReallySuper]

Update with half the vote in:

No - 55.3%
437,410

Yes - 44.7%
353,283

52% in: 55.0-45.0% (442,516-363,969) NO

Obviously the amendment won't fail by 10 points, so is there a particular region (likely including Louisville and/or Lexington) these first half of votes have come from? Or is this mail-in votes being counted first? (Does KY even have mail-in voting?)

It's hard to tell exactly, but based on what has been reported from the Senate race, it looks like >75% of Louisville, Lexington and Franklin County are in now. Kentucky has limited mail-in voting but more importantly had three days of no-excuse early voting. I'm not positive that those are being reported first but if so they probably skew No.

[ReallySuper]

Over two-thirds of the vote now in:

No - 54.4%
574,022

Yes - 45.6%
481,993

The raw margin is approaching 100,000 (although might be starting to narrow now rather than grow)

[ReallySuper]

With 75% in:

No - 53.5%
626,040

Yes - 46.5%
543,717

Margin has fallen to 7 percentage points and less than 83,000 votes.

[PSOL]

Regardless of the results of this race, Republicans made a huge error of making abortion the winning issue for democrats, trumping economic woes and weak social recovery from the pandemic. Abortion, once the stakes actually become real for many republican-inclined voters, they cave in. All it also does is rev up women tired of the bull••••.

Was electoral suicide worth it to maintain control over the ovaries?

[ReallySuper]

Midnight update, 82% in:

No - 52.8%
667,288

Yes - 47.2%
596,092

Worth noting that Warren County (Bowling Green), Bullitt County (Louisville suburb) and Woodford and Scott Counties (Central Kentucky/Lexington suburb) haven't reported yet, and I expect all of them to be varying degrees of No (all but Bullitt voted for Beshear in 2019, and the generally Republican suburban counties around Louisville have been voting No so far)

[ReallySuper]

The major No campaign organization (Protect Kentucky Access) has asserted victory. No leads Yes by 71,000 votes with 85% reporting.

[Gass3268]

The major No campaign organization (Protect Kentucky Access) has asserted victory. No leads Yes by 71,000 votes with 85% reporting.

Is there a county map of this somewhere?