2020 New York Redistricting

[Skill and Chance]

Between this, the Utah case, and Allen v. Milligan fallout in AL/LA/SC, the House could actually start at Lean D in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

It is honestly kind of interesting to me that Republicans are still so dead set against redistricting reform when gerrymandering no longer unambiguously benefits them in the long term imo. Perhaps because so many House Republicans are from Florida and Texas?

There's a segment of Republicans who are non-hypocritically committed to as much state level control vs. federal control as possible.*  They are enough to sway the outcome on this, particularly given the need for 60 senate votes.  If there was an entrenched 25 year Dem House majority that was finally broken by just a couple seats with the PV at R+10, perhaps this would be different, but that's the kind of result it would take to overcome the preference for state level control.

*They do tend to be fine with state legislatures overruling local governments in a way that can look hypocritical.  But this is constitutionally very distinct.  Under most state constitutions, local governments exist at the pleasure of the state legislature.

[Skill and Chance]

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

The original Hochulmander was a tied delegation waiting to happen anyway.  Something like 20/6 could be stable for the decade and at least as justifiable in court as Florida.