Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Skill and Chance]

North Fulton and Forsyth are both stampeding left (I think some of the fastest trends in the country), even Dawson swung left from 2016 to 2020.   I don't think the GA-6 will last the decade. 

GA-2 is about Biden+10.

GA-06 and GA-11 could both flip in the next GOP president midterm, but they could also pick up GA-02 by the end of the decade.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting to see how relatively much they shored up GA-1. Coastal GA hasn't exactly been trending their way over the past decade, so I guess they decided to give it a nudge rather than tucking some of those heavily-R areas into GA-12 (which I think is basically fool's gold for Ds: Richmond and Columbia combined aren't growing fast enough to counter the lean this decade).

They are obviously worried about Savannah. 

However, if those areas really start giving out at the congressional level, everything close to Atlanta is already gone and we're in AR 2011 territory..

[Skill and Chance]

I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

She should do this.  Abrams will probably underperform generic D for the same reason Trump 2024 would underperform generic R.

[Skill and Chance]

I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

She should do this.  Abrams will probably underperform generic D for the same reason Trump 2024 would underperform generic R.

Why are you assuming both of these things?

Swing voters don't like filing ridiculous lawsuits and then pretending you won an election for multiple years. 

[Skill and Chance]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

I don't really believe that, and I don't think that the 11th would either although the Georgia district courts will likely get more friendly for Dems. I think higher courts would strike it down. I still believe the safest move is to let Democrats draw the 4 districts within the blob.

The judges are technically elected with opponents, but it's nonpartisan and unseating the original gov appointees is still very rare in the GA system. 

[Skill and Chance]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

I don't really believe that, and I don't think that the 11th would either although the Georgia district courts will likely get more friendly for Dems. I think higher courts would strike it down. I still believe the safest move is to let Democrats draw the 4 districts within the blob.

The judges are technically elected with opponents, but it's nonpartisan and unseating the original gov appointees is still very rare in the GA system. 

I am talking about a Federal VRA case. and the district courts I still highly doubt anything happens

OK, makes sense.  More friendly because they have that pre-approval from the home state senators tradition for federal district courts, right?

[Skill and Chance]

The thing I wonder about is the Augusta district. The 12th.

It’s easy to draw that in a way that’s about 49% white-44% black, compact, without cutting into the 2nd at all and without going to Savannah/Athens. And Trump +1 in 2020.

Is that enough for a vra requirement? The south is certainly racially polarized.

Very unlikely.  The current SCOTUS is more likely to say there is no VRA obligation for a legislature to draw any district a certain way than to actively require new ones. 

[Skill and Chance]

Is there no chance at a court fight over the GA map then?

Unlikely, and if there were, it would be over South Georgia. 

[Skill and Chance]

Both Cobb and DeKalb being the exact right size for a district is pretty cool.

Oklahoma County I believe is still the right size. El Paso County in CO was like that with 2019 estimates, but overshot them and needs a chunk taken out.

I wonder how the map will change in 2030. What do you expect then?

I feel like the 2030 GA redistricting will be pretty interesting insofar as 1) it’s fairly likely to be led by Democrats, 2) there could easily be another seat by then, and 3) Northern Atlanta could well be given both a Hispanic-opportunity and an Asian-opportunity district.

I think the GA Republicans will be smart enough to pass a redistricting commission amendment sometime mid-decade before they lose control, maybe in 2024.

Constitutional amendments require a 2/3rds vote of the legislature in GA, so they would need Dem support for any commission proposal.  It also has to pass a statewide referendum, but that's basically a given for independent redistricting measures. 

[Skill and Chance]

Still not sure why they didn't sue when there is a D governor.  This basically seems useless until a D governor can veto a GOP proposal. Always a decent case for 4 black districts but never neccesary and considering 4 D sinks existed anyway the seats can be relatively easily converted.

From a non partisan perspective 2 forms of a fair Atlanta area exist with little partisan difference . You can either choose what Haley/Ryan did by focusing to preserve convenient county lines  or the other option is to increase black majority. representation  and create a true Atlanta district based around the urban corridor that straddles DeKalb/Fulton along with deciding to split Cobb County. Either map atleast by my design gets 5 safe D safe d seats and 1 trump kemp biden Loeffler district. Only partisan difference is if 2012 Obama wins 3 or 4 seats in Atlanta. 4 Atlanta black seats is a bit more tricky than based on original estimates due to Atlanta gentrification .

Doesn't the Purcell stuff mean any court order to redraw is punted to 2023 anyway?  The Dem-aligned interest groups backing the suit are presumably optimistic about winning the governorship in 2022.

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?

By 2026? Zero shot. By 2030 with demographic change though, there's a possiblity of the state House flipping. The most likely scenario for 2030 is a Democrat Governor with a Republican legislature (or a divided one). Here's my map for a hypothetical compromise, or more likely a court-drawn map:



The north Fulton County/Forsyth County seat is Trump +4.5%. Will probably flip by the end of the decade, if it doesn't vote for Biden in 2024 anyway. In that case, you could get rid of one of the Democrat non-metro seats to keep it at 7-7.

Note the GA supreme court is elected statewide, and the terms are only 6 years, so 3 seats are up every 2 years.  If Democrats are sweeping the statewide offices at least twice during 2026-30, they would have a liberal majority court that would likely resolve the dispute by just picking the Dem map.  With this in mind, is there a way to draw a visually attractive 8D/6R? 

[Skill and Chance]

So what happens here now?

They might just make the current GA-07 majority black instead of plurality black I think?

That means more bluish white/Asian North Atlanta areas now have to get distributed elsewhere across the map.  IDK if you can keep both GA-06 and GA-11 safe enough for the decade now?

[Skill and Chance]

This is good.  There need to be cases like this where the Section 2 lawsuit doesn't obviously benefit Democrats if we want the current SCOTUS to hold the line on the VRA and ensuring reasonable black representation in the South.