2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Wtf’s happening in Arizona?

What's left of the heavy red rurals is coming in. Heavy blue counties haven't updated yet, which will counteract those votes and more.

That's not it. Even the "heavy blue counties" have had late ballots with a marked shift towards Trump. The last batch from Coconino was 50-46 Biden when Coconino overall is 63-35 Biden. If the 2nd bluest of the remaining counties is only putting Biden 4 points ahead then it's safe to say most of the remainder are going to favour Trump.

Arizona might not flip but it'll be quite close. Fox will be thanking their lucky stars if Biden holds on.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So I wrote a long post going over all the remaining counties with less than 90% reporting and Atlas decided to log me out so this is going to be brief.

Once all the suburban and urban votes are counted (including Allegheny, which inexplicably stopped) it should be in a near tie, give or take around 10k votes. Excluding those most of the remaining votes are mail ins from heavily Republican counties. The mail ins we've seen for comparable counties like Tioga and Blair have gone narrowly for Trump and it seems likely that most of the remaining counties will also be quite close. Depending on how reporting goes its possible people will overreact if a bunch of these Trump leaning mail ins drop all at once.

Fortunately Biden still has outstanding votes left in Center and Monroe, both of which favour him. My guess is that those two counties will secure Biden victory, but quite possibly by less than 1%. The remaining ballots definitely aren't likely to continue the Erie/Cumberland trend except for Monroe and Center.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Hoping Biden can take the lead in GA or PA before Trump takes the lead in AZ. I don't want Trump to have a majority of EVs at any point.

Trump is going to pull ahead in Arizona?!!

We'll know when the next Maricopa drop comes in just under an hour.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So if Trump wins Arizona, that means we were 30k votes away from a tie (WI and GA).  DAMN!

Alternatively, if Trump wins Arizona and Nevada, holds Pennsylvania and loses Georgia it's also a tie.

Not likely at all but it'd be a pretty wacky map.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1324557203051696129

Is this on the basis of an inevitable recount or are they stopping the count here and now?