Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[DrScholl]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

[DrScholl]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

It isn't a one-off. Budd improved significantly on Trump in Eastern North Carolina and even Walker improved on Trump in the black belt of Georgia. We also saw similar effects in Alabama and Misssissippi in 2022. And midterm trends tend to significantly lag Presidential trends.

It's possible Trump loses (ie if Biden somehow flips Florida due to the abortion referendum), but I'm quite confident Trump will win Georgia and North Carolina.

The point has already been made that a lot of rural Black counties are depopulating, so the trend line has less to do with Black voters shifting and more to do with population decline. That said, Walker still did as badly as Trump did with the Black vote and lost by more than he did overall.

[DrScholl]

Trump is gonna win Louisiana by 30 points. I wouldn't be surprised if he clears 60% in the deep south

No he won’t.

There's a good chance he will. The bottom has probably fallen out of Democrats in the Deep South.

He won't. There aren't enough rural areas for him to pull that off and like in many other places he's alienated suburban voters to some extent.