Rate Montana for Senate

[Del Tachi]

Daines +8
Trump +16

[Del Tachi]

Daines +8

Both campaigns' internal polling shows Bullock up by single digits, you know. It's not a coincidence that Bullock declared for the race immediately after it was clear Biden and not Sanders had the nomination.

This election is in November and Donald Trump will win Montana by at least 15 points, you know.  

Evan Bayh was also leading the Indiana Senate polls for awhile too.  Bullock won’t be able to campaign behind his fake moderate shield when he’s having to run against  Donald Trump.

[Del Tachi]

Daines +8

Both campaigns' internal polling shows Bullock up by single digits, you know. It's not a coincidence that Bullock declared for the race immediately after it was clear Biden and not Sanders had the nomination.

This election is in November and Donald Trump will win Montana will win by at least 15 points, you know. 

Evan Bayh was also leading the Indiana Senate polls for awhile too.  Bullock won’t be able to campaign behind his fake moderate shield when he’s having to run against  Donald Trump.

Evan Bayh never had to campaign seriously in two senate terms, Bullock had to campaign to be elected Governor/re-election, and Montana 2018 proves that even though Tester voted against Kavanaugh, he won by the highest margin of his career in the Senate.

Yeah, at least Bayh had a great record of statewide success (winning 3/4 statewide races by >20pts).  Bullock won his reelection campaign by only 30k votes in 2016 (3.9pp) and only won with a plurality in 2012. 

An electoral juggernaut Bullock is not.

[Del Tachi]

Daines +8

Both campaigns' internal polling shows Bullock up by single digits, you know. It's not a coincidence that Bullock declared for the race immediately after it was clear Biden and not Sanders had the nomination.

This election is in November and Donald Trump will win Montana by at least 15 points, you know. 

Evan Bayh was also leading the Indiana Senate polls for awhile too.  Bullock won’t be able to campaign behind his fake moderate shield when he’s having to run against  Donald Trump.

You do realize Bayh had the whole residency controversy that Bullock will not have, right?

I’m going to trust MT Treasurer’s and Heir of Camelot’s word on this race (since they are, you know, Montanans)  and call it a tossup.

The point is that polls in April and May have very little predictive value, or else we’d have Senator Bayh and Senator Bredesen. 

Given that Trump will almost assuredly win MT by double digits and Bullock still hasn’t felt the heat of a national campaign yet, I know whose shoes I’d want to be in at this point. 

[Del Tachi]

Daines +8

Both campaigns' internal polling shows Bullock up by single digits, you know. It's not a coincidence that Bullock declared for the race immediately after it was clear Biden and not Sanders had the nomination.

This election is in November and Donald Trump will win Montana will win by at least 15 points, you know. 

Evan Bayh was also leading the Indiana Senate polls for awhile too.  Bullock won’t be able to campaign behind his fake moderate shield when he’s having to run against  Donald Trump.

Bayh also had weaknesses that Bullock doesn't. After leaving the Senate, he cashed out as a lobbyist and barely visited Indiana while owning multimillion dollar houses in DC and Florida. Bullock is the popular incumbent governor (like Maggie Hassan or Rick Scott) in a state that flattened the curve very effectively.

Hassan and Scott had the obvious benefit of running in states aligned with their respective parties, which is really what explains 98 percent of their performance.  Bullock will be running against partisan headwinds in a state Trump is almost certain to win (probably by double digits).