Rate Montana for Senate

[Chester County Anti-populist]

I'm guessing Daines

[SnowLabrador]

Daines +1.

[Woody]

Daines +12.

[😥]

Bullock +3

[MT Treasurer]

This is gonna be a fun thread.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Daines will win because:
1) He is a well-liked Senator and has pretty good approval for a vulnerable incumbent
2) Montana split-tickets, but they prefer Republicans more than Democrats
A)Bullock won by a lean margin in 2016, while Trump won by a safe margin
B)Tester only won by 3ish points in a blue wave year against Maryland Mat, while in the House election Gianforte won by 4ish
3) Also if Montana loves split ticketing a lot, I expect we would see some Biden/Daines ballots too, not all of the split tickets are gonna be Trump/Bullock

[S019]

Tossup, with the slightest tilt to Bullock, almost as close to pure tossup as you can get.

[We Live in Black and White]

Bullock at this juncture, but I don't want to set that in stone.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For now the race leans in Daines favor. Even though Bullock is a strong canidate, MT will likely vote for Trump, and Daines is decently popular and is inoffensive. If one or 2 more reliable polls cane out showing Bullock leading I would move it to tossup tough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are leading in AZ, CO, KS and MT and have better prospects than ME and NC, due to fact ME2 can still be won by Collins.

Dont underestimate Bollier and Bullock and Dems shouldn't underestimate Collins and Tills have may have switched places in getting Dems a tied Senate

[Lognog]

Daines +1.

[Babeuf]

Daines by a very close margin.

[I’m not Stu]

Daines is an incumbent and just a generic R. How would Bullock do against Gianforte, better or worse?

[Xing]

Anyway, I’d guess Daines by about 3, but Bullock has a chance.

[Heir of Camelot]

Bullock +4

Daines actually isn't very popular. Bullock is. Daines has run a terrible campaign to this point. He's never faced even a Generic D opponent. His seat had been in Democratic hands for an entire century before he won it after his opponent dropped out due to a scandal. Trump is not running away with it this time (and even when he did Bullock still won by 4). Biden is much stronger than Hillary at the top of the ballot. Bullock has been handling the pandemic masterfully while "Disappearing Daines" has been living down to his moniker.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock and Cooney both win

[TML]

At this moment:

Bullock = Perhaps
Daines = Likelier than not

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Daines 52-46 Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daines 52-46 Lean R

No, Dainea have not lead in a recent poll, last poll had Bullock plus 7

[Left Wing]

Daines is an incumbent and just a generic R. How would Bullock do against Gianforte, better or worse?

Are you saying if Bullock was able to run for a third term as governor, or Bullock was running against Gianforte in the house? In both cases, yes he would beat Gianforte by about 4 points. If you are talking about if Gianforte became the GOP senate nominee(by primary challenge or Daines retiring), Bullock would be leading by a lot right now.

[TDAS04]

Daines +3 (and Trump +11)

[MillennialModerate]

If this was a Non-POTUS year - it’d be a Lean to Likely Dem.

But the POTUS onslaught .... Daines +3; Trump +15

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Core 4 is AZ, CO, ME and MT. Then its KS with Kobach, GA and NC.  Dems cant give up on any of these seats, Dems need 51 seats, not 50, due to the power sharing agreement in 2000, when Dems had 50 and Rs had 51.

Dems are blasting in ads Daines, Tillis, Collins and Kobach

Last poll had Bullock plus 7

[Suburbia]

Bullock +5.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We arent giving up on any of our races, where we have A candidates