MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Del Tachi]

If Cochran does retire and a special is set up to coincide with November 2018, I think its unlikely that Bryant appoints someone who is likely to run for the seat for a full-term.  I think we'll get a caretaker until then, and then I think it'll be Gregg Harper's if he wants it.  Delbert and Reeves are too invested in 2019 to change course now.

[Del Tachi]

If Cochran does retire and a special is set up to coincide with November 2018, I think its unlikely that Bryant appoints someone who is likely to run for the seat for a full-term.  I think we'll get a caretaker until then, and then I think it'll be Gregg Harper's if he wants it.  Delbert and Reeves are too invested in 2019 to change course now.

could bryant himself take it?

I suppose, but there's nothing to suggest that he's planning anything after his gubernatorial term ends.

[Del Tachi]

It's such a dumb career move on McDaniel's part though. He could of just waltzed in in 2020 once Cochran was out.

I disagree. Cochran, as we see, is going to be replaced by a relatively fresh face establishment Republican part of his appeal against Cochran, and to a lesser degree wicker, is draining the swamp of long-time Congress Critters, etcetera

Now answer me this. What is the timing involved here. In other words is there a scenario where Cochran's resignation results in a special election before when his seat would be up next year? I'm trying to think of some scenario where McDaniel runs for his seat in a special election rather than for Wickers next year. Or maybe he would still run for Wickers if you loses a special for Cochran's seat. But you know what I mean

Wicker, who was appointed in December 2007, didn't have to face a special election until November 2008.  So I imagine that any special next year would be concurrent with the other Senate election.

[Del Tachi]

Presley would only stand a chance against Chris McDaniel emergent from a divisive GOP primary.

[Del Tachi]

Presley would only stand a chance against Chris McDaniel emergent from a divisive GOP primary.

How would you vote in a Presley vs. McDaniel race? I'm guessing Presley based on your Clinton vote?

Oh yes, most definitely.  I've met Brandon Presley multiple times and he represents where I'm from on the PSC.  I would have no problem voting for Presley over most Mississippi GOP'ers.

[Del Tachi]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

[Del Tachi]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

[Del Tachi]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

If no one gets over 50%, yes.

However, I just realized that the fact that this is a nonpartisan special election changes the dynamic drastically.  That means if the Dems run a semi-decent candidate they’re almost guaranteed a runoff spot due to the high floor provided by Black voters.  The top Republican after him would most likely get the other spot, with almost no possibility for an R vs R runoff.

In this case a Presley vs McDaniel general is almost a certainty should both of these candidates run.  In this case, Bryant’s best move might be to appoint someone like Harper in an attempt to hold the seat (assuming that Bryant is completely opposed to the idea of a Senator McDaniel, which I’m not certain of).

[Del Tachi]

Brandon Presley won't be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018.


Also, is there any way to rename this thread something like:  "MS 2018 Megathread?"  Most of the discussion here has strayed from the original topic (a possible Cochran resignation) and we could even combine the thread on Harper's retirement with this one.

[Del Tachi]

Brandon Presley won't be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018.


Also, is there any way to rename this thread something like:  "MS 2018 Megathread?"  Most of the discussion here has strayed from the original topic (a possible Cochran resignation) and we could even combine the thread on Harper's retirement with this one.

Against Wicker, he never said he wouldn’t run in a special.

Eh, he doesn't mention anything about Wicker specifically.  And his statement is construed in such a way that is a pretty inclusive 'no' about going to Washington at all this year. 

Also, I don't think we'll be getting a special election this year.

[Del Tachi]

Brandon Presley won't be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018.


Also, is there any way to rename this thread something like:  "MS 2018 Megathread?"  Most of the discussion here has strayed from the original topic (a possible Cochran resignation) and we could even combine the thread on Harper's retirement with this one.

Against Wicker, he never said he wouldn’t run in a special.

Eh, he doesn't mention anything about Wicker specifically.  And his statement is construed in such a way that is a pretty inclusive 'no' about going to Washington at all this year. 

Also, I don't think we'll be getting a special election this year.

What's the latest date that Cochran could resign that would still allow/require a special election this year?

Applicable state code is here.

Based on my reading it seems to imply that if Cochran resigns prior to July 29 then a special election has to coincide with the regularly scheduled election.  If he resigns after that date it gets a bit harder to interpret.

[Del Tachi]

If Cochran resigns after July 29 will the special election coincide with the 2019 Mississippi elections, or would the appointee serve until election day 2020? (Or is it some arbitrary date that defies logical sense)

The special election would coincide with the 2019 Mississippi elections. If a candidate gets a majority in the primary, that candidate wins. If not, the runoff will be in November of 2019.

Eh, not if Cochran resigns sometime between 29 July and 31 December.  That would probably mean a special election in the early part of 2019.

[Del Tachi]

Poll commissioned by Y'all Politics shows the state Democratic Party in the same mess it was in 2015, Hood/Presley vulnerable in primaries

[Del Tachi]

Can one of the MS House Reps replace Cochran?

I like Trent Kelly, but don't particularly like his chances in a GOP special primary election vs McDaniel

In other news, McDaniel is not yet definitively "out" for running against Wicker in 2018 but he has until 5:00 p.m. Thursday to decide.

[Del Tachi]

McDaniel will announce against Wicker tomorrow night.

Given that the CL is a historically bad publication and the lack of discipline or cohesion among McDaniel staff/surrogates, the Wednesday announcement could just as likely be about running for Lt Gov in 2019.

Also, why would McDaniel prefer to challenge Wicker instead of wait for the special?

[Del Tachi]

Presley has filed to run.

LOL

[Del Tachi]

Mamacita's running.

He'll probably win. Adultery is no longer a sin in the eyes of the "values voters."

\

Doubtful.  Wicker has a lot more organization/money than Thad did at the same point in 2014.  Plus, McDaniel is old news and has pretty high unfavorables.  I think Wicker will wipe the floor, somewhere around 60% in the primary. 

[Del Tachi]

Mamacita's running.

He'll probably win. Adultery is no longer a sin in the eyes of the "values voters."

\

Doubtful.  Wicker has a lot more organization/money than Thad did at the same point in 2014.  Plus, McDaniel is old news and has pretty high unfavorables.  I think Wicker will wipe the floor, somewhere around 60% in the primary. 

But Wicker won't have thousands of Democrats voting for Gene Taylor in the CD4 Republican primary also voting for him like Thad had.

And the stupid flag issue really fires up the deplorables.

Hmm, not sure how much of an advantage that is considering that Thad actually lost the primary where all of those "Democrats" were voting for Taylor and then won the runoff three weeks later.

The way I see it, Wicker has (almost) all of the institutional advantages that Thad had in 2014 while being a more polished, media-friendly, campaign-ready operation.  The 3rd district GOP primary should boost turnout in Metro Jackson/Starkville relative to other parts of the state (good for Wicker), Wicker has a stronger regional base than Cochran did in 2014 (Wicker should do good in Tupelo/Oxford), and Wicker's SASC membership makes him a good fit for military voters on the Gulf Coast.

I think more polling will do a good job of framing the contest, but I'm rating this as Likely Wicker for now.

[Del Tachi]

Senator Wicker following the Luther Strange strategy.

Also, can we change the name of this thread?  Something like "MS 2018 Megathread" would be more appropriate seeing as we have this race, the MS-03 GOP primary and a potential Cochran retirement to all consider.

[Del Tachi]

I think McDaniel will switch over.  His ambition has no bounds.

[Del Tachi]

Strange would have beat Jones like 60-36

[Del Tachi]

Strange would have beat Jones like 60-36

Do you even read other people's posts?

There were no September polls that showed Jones beating Strange.  The only polls that had Jones winning against Strange came out after the Moore allegations, which substantially cut Republican enthusiasm (and that would have been felt in match-ups featuring Strange as well).

Without Moore as the GOP nominee, there never would have been the opportunity for national Democrats to have become so invested in the race following the pedo allegations.  Without the enthusiasm and fundraising that Moore's missteps handed the Democrats, there's absolutely no way that Strange would have lost this contest. 

[Del Tachi]

Strange would have beat Jones like 60-36

Do you even read other people's posts?

There were no September polls that showed Jones beating Strange.  The only polls that had Jones winning against Strange came out after the Moore allegations, which substantially cut Republican enthusiasm (and that would have been felt in match-ups featuring Strange as well).

Without Moore as the GOP nominee, there never would have been the opportunity for national Democrats to have become so invested in the race following the pedo allegations.  Without the enthusiasm and fundraising that Moore's missteps handed the Democrats, there's absolutely no way that Strange would have lost this contest. 

FOX had a tied poll before the allegations.

Yes, tied between Moore and Jones.  Not Jones and Strange.

[Del Tachi]

Delbert Hosemann, a potential Bryant appointee, says he's not running for reelection as SoS in 2019.  He was widely expected to run for LG in 2019, but his comments today left open the possibility of running for Cochran's seat in the special election. 

[Del Tachi]

I'm interested in seeing how McDaniel will portray such blatant opportunism to the electorate.

He's was being pretty tough on Wicker, but he's now suddenly uninterested in taking him out because there's opened up an easier path to the Senate?  I think the people of Mississippi are smarter than that