Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll

[Yelnoc]

I'll be updating this thread periodically with news regarding the Ames Straw Poll.  Please post stories relates to it and the preceding date here.  Feel free to make bets on who will place where in here also.

The Big Dates

July 23 - Iowa GOP finalizes Ballot
Bachmann
Cain
Gingrich
Huntsman
McCotter
Pawlenty
Paul
Romney
Santorum

August 11 - Debate
A joint venture between the Iowa GOP, Washington Examiner, and Fox News, which will air the debate live.  Located in the CY Stephens Auditorium at the Iowa State Center in Ames, Iowa, the debate will start at 8pm CST.  Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and I believe Newt Gingrich have all accepted invitations.  If I miss a news story, let me know.

The nine candidates invited to the strawpoll (see above) have all been invited to the debate.  Additional candidates can participate in the debate if they meet all of these requirements:

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August 13 - Straw Poll
Iowa Straw Poll Speaking Schedule:
Noon- Program Begins
12:15- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15- Herman Cain delivers remarks

Some general Notes...
-To be held at the Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University's campus.
-Mitt Romney is skipping the Straw Poll, presumably to focus on New Hampshire.
-Newt Gingrich indicated in late June that due to his campaigns financial woes, he will not directly participate (see note in Booths).  From what I understand, he will likely still be on the ballot despite his statements, though he won't know for another few days.
-Youth who will be able to cast a vote in the November 2012 presidential election will be allowed to vote in the straw poll.  
-Straw Poll tickets will cost $30, down by $5 from 2007.

The booths, which were in the news late last month when they were being auctioned, panned out like so...
-Ron Paul was the highest bidder for a lot for $31,000.00
-McCotter bought a lot for $18,000.00, he was the second highest bidder
-Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain where the next highest bidders, with each getting a lot for $17,000.00.
-Rick Santorum spent $15,000.00 for his lot.
-Pawlenty ended up spending $15,000.00 for a less desirable lot.
-Newt Gingrich was represented at the meeting but did not bid.

[Yelnoc]

I'll add it to the thread.

[Yelnoc]

Straw Poll ballot has been finalized.  See top.  Note that write-in ballots will be counted.

[Yelnoc]

As I said in the other thread, is there really any doubt at this point that Bachmann is going to win this?

Paul might pack the convention with his supporters.  If he rents a few school buses, he could transport 300+ 17-21 year olds to Ames.

Anyways, now we can start making bets on the placement.  Here's my ranking guess (assuming Paul successfully seats his supporters):

1. Bachmann
2. Paul
3. write-in: Perry
4. Cain
5. McCotter
6. Pawlenty
7. Romney
8. Santorum
9. Gingrich
10. write-in: Huckabee
11. Huntsman

[Yelnoc]

As I said in the other thread, is there really any doubt at this point that Bachmann is going to win this?

Paul might pack the convention with his supporters.  If he rents a few school buses, he could transport 300+ 17-21 year olds to Ames.

Anyways, now we can start making bets on the placement.  Here's my ranking guess (assuming Paul successfully seats his supporters):

1. Bachmann
2. Paul
3. write-in: Perry
4. Cain
5. McCotter
6. Pawlenty
7. Romney
8. Santorum
9. Gingrich
10. write-in: Huckabee
11. Huntsman

What's your reasoning behind having Romney finish behind McCotter and Pawlenty?  Does McCotter have any supporters anywhere at all?  I haven't heard of a single person anywhere supporting McCotter that isn't on his payroll.

Romney proclaiming that he is "skipping Ames" will probably be seen as a big "F- You!" to the voters there who chose in in 2007.  So I predict he does worse than expected; putting him behind Pawlenty fits the definition well.  McCotter is my wild card.  I'll probably end up looking like a fool for placing him that high, but he does have the best booth at the convention.  I have a feeling he has been trying to win support behind closed doors and, if he turns out to be a decent speaker (better than T-Paw, who get's on my nerves) than he might have a shot at the #5 slot.

[Yelnoc]

Thanks Mr. Morden, I updated the OP.

Buying a little McCotter probably isn't that bad of an idea.  You might be able to sell it for a nice little profit during the Straw Poll.

[Yelnoc]

1) Paul isn't placing second.

2) Gingrich and Santorum aren't cracking 5%.

3) Giuliani, Perry and Palin aren't on the ballot.

1) You think he will win?
2) Agreed on Gingrich, though Santorum may surprise us.  He basically lives there, after all.
3) Write-ins are accepted this year.

[Yelnoc]

What if Huntsman does well in the debate?

He might gain a little, but anybody that scores above 10% will have invested time into Iowa and made sure to bus in a number of delegates.  The chances of Huntsman doing that is effectively nil.

[Yelnoc]

That sound fine Morden.

And does that picture of T-Paw remind anyone of the Dukakis Tank?

[Yelnoc]

Iowa straw poll schedule (presumably, these are all in Central Time):

http://iowagop.org/iowagop/?p=635

Iowa Straw Poll Speaking Schedule:
Noon- Program Begins
12:15- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15- Herman Cain delivers remarks

Straw Poll voting closes at 4pm. Chairman Matt Strawn will deliver the Straw Poll results on stage immediately after they’ve been tabulated.

Added.  With that speaking slot, it appears that I seriously undervalued Cain.  Though I wonder if Perry's choice to announce on the same day will steal Cain's thunder?