Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Niemeyerite]

How do the independents lean politically?

90% of them are leftist (as a rule of thumb, every independent outside district 11)

Also: BEST ELECTION EVER

Yes, 37% turnout FANTASTIC!! 😒😒

That makes the performance of the conservatives look even more pathetic.

[Niemeyerite]

Who do you think most "La Lista del Pueblo" leaders and congresspeople are going to support? Boric, Artés or NOTA?

[Niemeyerite]

Some questions about today:

- At what time do polls close?
- When will the first results be released?
- Will we know who goes to the runoff today?
- At what time do you expect to have a good picture of the final results?

I spent 6 beautiful months of my life in Santiago, and had the opportunity to travel a lot. I'm in love with Chile and am always thinking about going back... I really enjoyed my time there.

Here's my prediction, btw:

Boric 25%
Kast 24%
Sichel 19%
Provoste 15%
Parisi 10%
Ominami 6%
Artés 1%

[Niemeyerite]

Some questions about today:

- At what time do polls close?
- When will the first results be released?
- Will we know who goes to the runoff today?
- At what time do you expect to have a good picture of the final results?

I spent 6 beautiful months of my life in Santiago, and had the opportunity to travel a lot. I'm in love with Chile and am always thinking about going back... I really enjoyed my time there.

Here's my prediction, btw:

Boric 25%
Kast 24%
Sichel 19%
Provoste 15%
Parisi 10%
Ominami 6%
Artés 1%

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain). The first results should come out at 18:30-19:00. We will know today, because in Chile, statistically, with 2,5% of the vote in, the final result doesn't change meaningfully. So, unless 2 candidates are tied for second place, we will know very early. By 19:30 we should have a clear picture,

Also, I'm very happy to hear that you liked Chile a lot! Which places did you visit?

Thanks for the answers and the kindness.

I really enjoyed my time in your country, and miss it a lot. I went to Cajón del Maipo, Valparaíso, Viña and some nearby places, Valle del Elqui and La Serena, Atacama Desert, El Maule (the beach, las Siete Tazas, etc), some national parks in Araucanía, Pucón, Valdivia, Puerto Varas, Chiloé, Torres del Paine and Punta Arenas 😃 oh, I also spent 5 days in Easter Island so I'd say that I used my time well. Didn't go to the University as much as I should have but... I don't regret it 😂

When I'm back, I'll definitely go to the Carretera Austral, Coyhaique et al. Also, I think a trip to the part of Atacama I didn't see (+Arica) is mandatory!

[Niemeyerite]

So I found the 2017 expat vote. It was:

Beatriz Sánchez 5.587 votos (24,22%),
Alejandro Guillier 6.569 (28,48%),
Sebastián Piñera 7.223 (31,32%),
Carolina Goic 1.386 (6,01%),
José Antonio Kast 1.230 (5,33%),
Marco Enriquez Ominami 709 (3,07%),
Eduardo Artés 222 (0,96%)

All in all, ~63% left & centre-left vs. ~37% right.

We have 73% for the centre-left and left right now with Boric getting 62%. That means very good news for him, I suppose.

[Niemeyerite]

If the national vote evolution turns out to be similar to the expat one, Boric is definitely over 30% and probably closer to 40%. But I will try not to get my hopes up and read too much on early trends and results, as an Atlas institution would advise 🙃

[Niemeyerite]

I mean, it’s mostly European + Asian vote kicking in.

I wonder how much to the right the US + LatAm votes will be. Would be surprised if they are as left as Europe. Still good results for Boric though! If he finishes with over 50% with expats is already great signal for him.

True. Just a way to spend the time till results start quicking in.

[Niemeyerite]

So, Kast vs Boric It is, with the right having more votes than the left. However, I guess Parisi base in the north cannot be described as your usual right-wing voter. Let's wait and see.

It'd be amazing that the result of these years of Piñera disastrous government and hundreds of demonstrations and activism were the election of an even more conservative, reactionary guy than Piñera. Since Brexit, nothing makes sense anymore.

[Niemeyerite]

If these are the final results it would be pretty ominous for the runoff, honestly.

No, it would just mean Atlas got it wrong again. Come on, the bias was obvious (practically the only replies here were from red avatars haha). Absolutely pathetic performance for the left. It must be said that I was the only one here who did not buy into the narrative of the red avatars.

Nobody cares about what you say. You are always there to laugh when the left loses and cry when the left wins, but other than that, your inputs are naught, null, zero, irrelevant. Kaoras, Lumine (Who happens to be Chilean and conservative), etc, did a great job and provided useful information about Chile and its elections. I never read anything about Boric winning in a landslide or something like that, so stop lying.

[Niemeyerite]

If these are the final results it would be pretty ominous for the runoff, honestly.

No, it would just mean Atlas got it wrong again. Come on, the bias was obvious (practically the only replies here were from red avatars haha). Absolutely pathetic performance for the left. It must be said that I was the only one here who did not buy into the narrative of the red avatars.

Nobody cares about what you say. You are always there to laugh when the left loses and cry when the left wins, but other than that, your inputs are naught, null, zero, irrelevant. Kaoras, Lumine (Who happens to be Chilean and conservative), etc, did a great job and provided useful information about Chile and its elections. I never read anything about Boric winning in a landslide or something like that, so stop lying.

Yes, and now I'm laughing. Niemeyerite, it's always a pleasure to see your fantasies destroyed.

That makes the performance of the conservatives look even more pathetic.

Yes, that happens when you have no social life at all. I sill remember that the worse day of your life was some days ago when the House passed some legislation you didn't like. The happiest was when Trump won Florida (that didn't last long, btw). I feel sorry for you, man.

[Niemeyerite]

Is Bachelet expected to officially endorse Boric?

[Niemeyerite]

Thank you so much for all the info, kaoras.

Is there any link where we can follow international results? NZ results look very good for Boric.

[Niemeyerite]

So, in Australia and NZ, Boric 2nd round > Boric + Provoste + MEO + Artés 1st round, and Kast 2 < Kast + Sichel. That's very good news so far. I hope people in Chile are following the same trend

[Niemeyerite]

I remember picking the metro in Santiago everyday and it was always full of people. Not even in Delhi did I see so many people in the same place at the same time.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm feeling so much relief right now. Gracias Chile!!

BTW, kaoras, can you share with us the results in some poor neighborhoods of Santiago? I need it to reply to a pinochetista friend who told me that Kast would be more harmed by the lack of public transportation there.

Thanks! And congratulations!

[Niemeyerite]

I cannot express how happy I'm feeling for Chile right now. Chile never upsets! What a wonderful country!