2008 Election Game: Campaign Thread

[Niemeyerite]

OOC: I'm curious, what is the current state of the economy?

Ditto

OOC:JulioMadrid and Spamage agreed that in order to make everyone have a fair chance of winning, they decided to make the crisis not to happen during the election cycle. Hope that it happens in December, what about a Dark Christmas? What I'm almost sure is that this election is going to the House =/

OOC: Should I retroactively edit my reference to the recession out?

Maybe... But in 2008, the US was in a recession, a depression, however, only happened with the financial crisis....

I don't think you need to change that. If everything were working perfectly on the economy, McCain would have a clear advantadge.

OOC: I'm curious, what is the current state of the economy?

Ditto

OOC:JulioMadrid and Spamage agreed that in order to make everyone have a fair chance of winning, they decided to make the crisis not to happen during the election cycle. Hope that it happens in December, what about a Dark Christmas? What I'm almost sure is that this election is going to the House =/

Right now the election would go to the House. But only two weeks ago my numbers indicated otherwise. And this debate will likely change things again!!

[Niemeyerite]

OOC: Well, if it goes to the House I win.

Not with Republicans and some conservadems endorsing the NYC Mayor. But yes, I think it's clear you'd win.

[Niemeyerite]

Hurry up, people!

[Niemeyerite]

Hurry up, people!

There should be a time limit for debating, that way this doesn't happen.

True. NHI, you can post your poll tomorrow morning.

Snowstalker, I said that you could talk about crisis, but that the crack would happen after the election,

Clinton96, you can't change Alaska for California, I'm sorry...

[Niemeyerite]

OOC: It's kind of unfair posting the answers before the two other guys, writing  long answers and getting lower margins than on the other debate :/

Nader is a fringe, radical candidate for about 90% of the US population. The fact that 16% of Americans thought he was the winner of this debate and 20% the last one should be considered a huge win. McCain and Dean will always have the support of their bases, some people who, no matter what, will claim that their candidate won, don't you think?

[Niemeyerite]

Tbh, Nader wouldn't hit above 3% nationally. He's just not relevant now and he wasn't in 2008.

Thank you all for your advices, but I think it's better by PM. Certainly, almost all of you would be better moderators than I am, but I decided to replace Spamage, so I am the moderator. I make mistakes, but I'm sure you also would and I wouldn't post here telling you what are my feelings.

Nader got 3% in 2000. Superique and Maxwell are running a great campaign (better than Nader 2000's campaign, if we can compare -we can't...-) and 1/5 of Americans think they won their respective debates.

[Niemeyerite]

OOC: It's kind of unfair posting the answers before the two other guys, writing  long answers and getting lower margins than on the other debate :/

Nader is a fringe, radical candidate for about 90% of the US population. The fact that 16% of Americans thought he was the winner of this debate and 20% the last one should be considered a huge win. McCain and Dean will always have the support of their bases, some people who, no matter what, will claim that their candidate won, don't you think?

Well Ok. Thank you... Next time, I'll go with a moderate republican-democrat candidate...

Moderate republicans don't win elections either

[Niemeyerite]

October 21st -October 27th starts now!



Foreign policy debate tomorrow!!

Bloomberg wins the townhall debate, keeps his momentum growing.

Does Patty Murray really want to win this election?

What-if any candidate gets +269 EVs? Some House Leaders indicate the House should vote for the winner of the popular vote, some disagree.

This election has more tied states than 1976!!

Lieutenant Governor John Bohlinger (R-MT) and Representative Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) endorse Michael Bloomberg. (More endorsements to come later... If you PM me.)

EDIT: RI2DH party Chairman Jimmy McMillan (RI2DH-NY), fmr. Governor Buddy Roemer (R-LA), filmmaker Michael Moore (D-MI), actress Meryl Streep (I-NJ) and Representative Barbara Lee (D-TX) endorse Ralph Nader!

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) indicates he may vote for Bloomberg, while senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Representative Mark Kirk (R-IL) and fmr. First Lady Nancy Reagan (R-NY) "I know Ronnie would be campaigning for McCain if he were alive, but I prefer Bloomberg" formally endorse Michael Bloomberg!

National poll + map to be released next week.

_______________________________________________________

State polls:

Hawaii
Dean 35%
Bloomberg 29%
Nader 18%
McCain 13%
Undecided 5%

Minnesota
Dean 32%
Bloomberg 27%
McCain 27%
Nader 10%
Undecided 4%

Illinois
Dean 35%
Bloomberg 30%
McCain 23%
Nader 8%

Pennsylvania
Dean 32%
Bloomberg 32%
McCain 27%
Nader 5%
Undecided 4%

California
Dean 38%
Bloomberg 34%
McCain 17%
Nader 7%
Undecided 4%

West Virginia
McCain 35%
Dean 33%
Bloomberg 21%
Nader 6%
Undecided 5%

Arkansas
McCain 30%
Bloomberg 30%
Dean 29%
Nader 7%
Undecided 4%

Ohio
Bloomberg 30%
Dean 29%
McCain 27%
Nader 9%
Undecided 5%

*Taken before any of the posts below.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm going to Portugal tomorrow morning... A week of relax. I hope there's some computer with internet on the hotel. If there isn't, don't let the game die, keep updating with some speeches, ads... And debate responses, of course!! I'll be back soon, and it's more likely than not that there'll be a computer available.

[Niemeyerite]

I think we can consider this officially frozen now.

No, it isn't. I'm back again

I'll have an update for Friday or Saturday. Can you continue the game, McCain?

[Niemeyerite]

I think we can consider this officially frozen now.

No, it isn't. I'm back again

I'll have an update for Friday or Saturday. Can you continue the game, McCain?

I really thought that his was frozen! I was ok with that and now I DO need this freeze.

Why?

Oh, and only to make things clear. You can post whatever you want to no matter who you are and what candidate you represent, you can release your ads wherever you want to, attacking whomever you want to, you can be interviewed by anyone... But I decide if the post is valid or not, I decide if it helps or not. So, if you are realistic, I'll be realistic, too. If you aren't, I won't. But for the moment 9 of each 10 posts, more or less, are all right for me. [9/10 =/= 10/10]

[Niemeyerite]

OOC: Would Nader's answers actually fit within the time slots debates give the candidates?

Ask NHI. I think that's a legitimate question.

I decided against updating on Saturday. You'll have it on Friday. You still have time to prepare speeches and release some ads until then. And some candidates still have to release their schedules.

[Niemeyerite]

One week before the election, Bloomberg events full of supporters, McCain and Dean don't manage to stop his momentum. Debate may be crucial, but both of them don't seem interested on preparing it... after losing every single debate to the NYC mayor!!!

BREAKING: Many democratic and republican politicians around the country decide to "betray" their party and endorse Bloomberg! Among them:

Former senator Dale Bumpers (D-AR), Governor Felix Perez Camacho (R_GU), San Antonio mayor Phil Hardberger (D-TX), State Treasurer Joseph Meyer (R-WY), Secretary of State Jason Gant (R-SD), Speaker of the NC House Joe Hackney (D-NC), Warren mayor James R. Fouts (I-MI) and former Governor Kenny Guinn (R-NV).

Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH; doesn't die), activist David Cobb (G-TX) and Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish (D-NM) endorse Dennis Kucinich.

"Dean will win if he is able to keep the democratic base energized. I believe he's been able to do that until now. But, yes, Nader is a big problem.. I don't think his appeal to liberals will be enough to give the election to Bloomberg or even McCain, but I'd lie if I said we aren't worried "- DNC acting Chairman R. T. Rybak.

"McCain will win. Comfortably. He'll be the surprise winner in New York. The state will vote for him when its inhabitants see George Pataki on the ballot paper. That plus the South and the republican West may be enough. I also think he'll get Florida. Retired people always liked him, and FL is a republican state... Yes, I think it's safe to say that McCain has the advantadge here, no matter what polls say" - Commentator Dick Morris.
__________________________________________________________________

I'll have my next update as soon as NHI releases his post-debate poll. This update doesn't mean you can post next week schedule. Those who want to post/modify their schedules, release some ads, give a speech... can do it now. This is an award for those who posted early.

[Niemeyerite]

October 28th -November 4th starts now!



America votes in one week and one day!
Will we know the President on Election Night? Will McCain be able to recover after a very bad week? Will Dean EV advantadge be enough? Will democrats keep the House and the Senate? Will the House give Bloomberg the Presidency if he gets more votes than Dean? Will Nader win any states, or at least finish 2nd?
We'll know the answer to these questions in just 8 days, stay tuned!

Huge change in polls! Even more tied states!

Where are Johnny and George? Too old to lead the country?
Republican leaders very angry after knowing that their ticket has spent an entire week, only some days before the election, in Northern Mariana Islands, relaxing after what they say has been a "stressful year and a tough campaign".
"Did McCain know he wasn't going to win the debate and realized he can't win the election, or something like that? Because I think he can, he's wrong if he thinks he can't win -just hear what Dick Morris said yesterday on FOX news-. If he doesn't stop travelling and campaigning around the USA these days, he will win" - Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ).

Bloomberg wins the foreign policy debate (after winning the other two!), keeps improving his performance in polls!
"The question now is: will republicans vote for him as the lesser of two evils? I hope so. And I will" - Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC).

What's the problem with Patty Murray? Is Dean regretting his decision? Is he scared that Bloomberg may get more than 270 EVs? Is he well-liked among Blue Dogs in the House?
"The VT Governor has been very active in the campaign, he's done a great job, way better than Gore nd Kerry, but he can't win without the help of his team." - Ed Schultz.

"Nader has run a great campaign. Way better than he did in 2000. We decided not to endorse anyone, not to nominate anyone, because we felt socialdemocracy was dead in this country. Well, we were totally off. We feel ashamed right now, we should have endorsed Ralph last year, not one week before the election" - Party for Socialism and Liberation and Socialist Party USA Chairpersons Gloria La Riva (PSL-NM) and Brian Moore (SPUSA-FL). (If I recall, the Peace & Freedom Party has already endorsed Nader. If not, it has now.)
_______________________________________________________

Dean/Murray               32% (-1) 68 EVs
Bloomberg/Bayh         32% (+3) 52 EVs
McCain/Pataki             26% (-3) 73 EVs
Nader/Kucinich             7% (+2)
Undecided                    3% (-1) 345 EVs

[0-4%) lead --> Toss-up (yellow)
[4-6%) lead --> 30% color
[6-10%) lead --> 60% color
[>10%) lead --> 90% color


[Many, many tied states (23!), as you see. But only 10 states can be considered 3-way ties. And some tied states are unwinnable for certain candidates, to be honest, even if they are close 2nd, because one of the candidates has momentum points there which will give him a crucial advantadge on election day.
Strategy decides the election. There are enough winnable tied states which could give one of you, my players, the necessary momentum to win.]

[Niemeyerite]

Any person can take a character and release a schedule as surrogate, if that surrogate has endorsed an independent candidate if you want to help Bloomberg or Nader or if he is a democrat/republican who hasn't in the case you want to help Dean or McCain.
And to be clear, you, candidates, can do what Maxwell did this week: pick a surrogate and post a schedule for him, just like he did with Rocky Anderson.

Good luck!

[Niemeyerite]

McCain, Kenny Guinn has already endorsed Bloomberg. I'll read "Jim Gibbons" there

OOC: I know this is asking too much, but is there a chance we could see how Gravel's senate campaign and the congressional third party challengers fared in the election?

Sure, I'm working on it right now. But only Senate and Gubernatorial election results + Kucinich and Matherson.

[Niemeyerite]

Oldies, if I don't say this, I explode. Why are you attacking Howard Dean? I don't think he's the one who is getting the support of republicans who have abandoned you.

[Niemeyerite]

Oldies, if I don't say this, I explode. Why are you attacking Howard Dean? I don't think he's the one who is getting the support of republicans who have abandoned you.

OOC: Also, it seems that every one of McCain's ads is the same thing, just reworded.

Thanks for pointing that out.

[Niemeyerite]

Endorsements:

Former Presidential candidate John Anderson (R, I-IL; "after thinking a lot about this, I'll finnaly cast my vote for Mr. Dean next week. I'm afraid Bloomberg will have to side with republicans to get things done if he is elected President"), Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (I-NV; "I'm becoming a democrat"), businessman John Georges (I-LA), activist Charles Evers (R-MS) and President Lula Da Silva (PT-BR; "o tal do Bloomberg parece um novo Bush. Eu estou gostando do Nader, mas se eu pudesse votar, votaría no Howard Dean, o cara parece um verdadeiro progressista") for Dean.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA; "McCain can't win the election and I've always been more moderate than my party. Bloomberg is the kind of candidate moderate republicans have been looking for since Gerald Ford in 1976"), State Senator Harri Anne Smith (R-AL; "I endorsed Bobby Bright, and he endorsed Bloomberg. So I'll do the same") and State Representative Joel Robideaux (R-LA) for Michael Bloomberg.

Activist Elisha Shapiro (I-LA), Portsmouth Mayor James W. Holley, III (I-VA; "Nader is the most honest candidate in the race, by far. And the only one who has never been a republican in the past"), actress Brooke Smith (I-NY), director Philip Hoffman (NY) and Representative Marcy Kaptur (D-OH; "my good friend Kucinich would make a great VP") for Nader.

No endorsements for John McCain. "What an awful strategy, it's absurd to attack Dean, it's Bloomberg who has killed his chances. If he had attacked Bloomberg, if he had painted him as a progressive, he'd have won back the support of many republicans" - Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS).

[Niemeyerite]

OOC: Looks like it will be Dean v. Bloomberg, with McCain in a still strong third thanks to holding the South.  However, I'm still wondering what could have been if the race was Obama v. Hagel v. Bloomberg.

I wish that's how it'd turned out too. Then we'd be talking about an Obamaslide.

The weirdest map ever, that'd be. But this one won't be that "normal" either.

OOC: Julo, votaria n tem acento! kk

Ah, e olha que eu pensei hein (em espanhol sim tem). É por isso que prefiro escrever sem acento em português hahaha...

__________________________________________________________

Election night begins in 24 hours.

[Niemeyerite]

No, this game will not die in 2008

[Niemeyerite]

Alea iacta est.

In less than an hour you'll have Dixville Notch, Hart's Location, Indiana and Kentucky

[Niemeyerite]

Welcome to 'Election Night 2008'. You are watching ZNN and I'm Julio Membrado. Tonight you will know who will be your next President, America!!! Or maybe not... Remember, to become President-elect, a candidate has to get more 270 Electoral Votes or more. Right now it seems that the race is a tie between Howard Dean (D) and Michael Bloomberg (I) with no candidate getting 269+1 EV, many toss-up states and John McCain (R) in the 3rd position with Ralph Nader (G) a distant 4th, but way stronger than any green candidate in the history of the party. Here you have how Dixville Notch and Hart's Location (NH) voted last midnight, which should be good news for Mr. Bloomberg:

Dixville Notch:
Michael Bloomberg 9 votes
Howard Dean 7 votes
John McCain 3 votes
Ralph Nader 2 votes

Hart's Location:
Michael Bloomberg 12 votes
Howard Dean 9 votes
John McCain 7 votes
Ralph Nader 1 vote

Polls have just closed in Indiana, Vermont, South Carolina, Virginia, Georgia and Kentucky, I'd like to ask Ted Heinz about these states. Hi, Ted!

TED: Hola, Julio! Nice to be here with you today. This will be a very long night, Julio, I don't think we will have a winner today, this election may need its recounts...

JULIO: let's talk about that later. Tell us, Ted, can we call any state?

TED: Mmm... Yes. Governor Mitch Daniels (R) has been reelected in Indiana, and Jim Douglas (R) in Vermont.

JULIO: Ted, I don't think the American people cares about who will be the next Governor in Indiana and Vermont, not even people who live there. We want to know about Presidential results.

TED: Oh, all right. It's safe to call Indiana for Governor Bloomberg and Vermont for mayor Dean.

JULIO: Big, expected calls, Ted. By the way, Bloomberg is the Mayor and Dean the Governor, you bastard.

Indiana (85% reporting) 11 EVs:

Michael Bloomberg 42.29%
John McCain 26.76%
Howard Dean 25.62%
Ralph Nader 5.33%

Vermont (99% reporting) 3 EVs:

Howard Dean 45.03%
Michael Bloomberg 24.22%
Ralph Nader 21.14%
John McCain 9.61%

JULIO: Now I'd like to introduce you to my good friend Susan Friedmann. Hi, Susan! Do you think we can call any other state yet?

SUSAN: Not yet, Julio. It's too early to call Kentucky, but Governor Dean has the lead there. It's all tied in Virginia and Mr. Bloomberg has the lead in Georgia, but it's too early to call the state, too. What an impressive showing by Mr. Nader in Vermont! I'm so glad the state is full of intelligent people! Only 10% (or maybe less, let's see!) voted for the senile!

TED: Now shut up, you socialist, because something big just happened. Senator Mitch McConnell has lost his reelection bid to businessman Bruce Lunsford. Big call, I repeat, Senator McConnell, republican minority leader, has just lost to a democrat in Kentucky. What a pity.

Kentucky, Senate (23% reporting):
Bruce Lunsford (D) 43.02%
Mitch McConnell (R) 31.76%
Gatewood Galbraith (I) 25.22%

SUSAN: Hey, don't tell me to shut up again, OK? I was about to say that South Carolina is a tie between McCain and Dean right now, with the republican leading by less than a point.

JULIO: just a moment, my darling. We have an important call now. You were talking about SC, right? We don't know who has won its 8 EVs yet, but Senator we can now project that Senator Lindsay Graham has won reelection.

SUSAN: Argh, I never liked that girl.

TED: Julio, Susan. Polls closed in OH, NC and WV. We don't have a winner in any of these states yet...

JULIO: oh, yes, this will certainly be a loooooong night. Let's go to Georgia, because I think we can now give the state to NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

TED: it's me who calls the states, not you. But you are right, Georgia goes to the independent candidate. I was afraid the state would vote for the socialist.

Georgia (92% reporting) 15 EVs:

Michael Bloomberg 34.64%
Howard Dean 30.17%
John McCain 27.53%
Ralph Nader 7.66%

JULIO: Ted, show us Kentucky, Virginia and South Carolina. I'd like to know who has the lead in those states!

SUSAN: I'd like to see it, too, Ted.

TED: right now Governor Dean has a slim lead in KY and VA, but McCain leads him in SC:

Kentucky (32% reporting) 8 EVs:

Howard Dean 33.21%
John McCain 32.34%
Michael Bloomberg 28.37%
Ralph Nader 6.08%

Virginia (19% reporting) 13 EVs:

Howard Dean 31.43%
John McCain 31.07%
Michael Bloomberg 30.85%
Ralph Nader 6.65%

South Carolina (40% reporting) 8 EVs:

John McCain 34.25%
Howard Dean 32.67%
Michael Bloomberg 27.46%
Ralph Nader 5.62%

SUSAN: And here's my map:

Michael Bloomberg/Evan Bayh 26 EVs
Howard Dean/Patty Murray 3 EVs
John McCain/George Pataki 0 EVs
Ralph Nader/Dennis Kucinich 0 EVs

[Niemeyerite]

States already called but not 100% will be modified in the same slot, not in a new post.
And now you can stop releasing ads :/

Tomorrow morning I'll update this, and you'll have final results by Saturday night (still afternoon in the USA, I think).

[Niemeyerite]

It's Vermont with only 9% reporting. Those are not final numbers, Dean, don't worry. Your state still likes you. But it's true that you lost some progressive democrats to Nader in the state.