GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024

[Vosem]

Only one I see is GA, AZ, and WI flipping back.

If Trump is the nominee, not sure how AZ especially would flip back. GA and WI are unlikely too.

Kari Lake won 50% of the vote (...more than Trump's 49%, actually). Pretty easy to see AZ flipping back if the campaign goes in certain directions, or even just off third-party machinations; in fact my guess is that it's the easiest of the three. (I would be surprised if GA/WI don't trend Democratic in 2024, but AZ might well go either direction. Many of the demographic trends there seem similar to FL a decade ago, frankly, though before someone notes this I'll note that of course the Hispanics there are not Cubans.)

I agree that this is the path of least resistance, though you could throw PA or MI into the mix. ("Any three of GA/WI/AZ/PA/MI", where those three seem easiest but I think it is possible that GA moves so far left that PA or MI need to sub for it.) NV is not big enough to matter. All Trump 2020 states must be held, though I think unless the election is a real Democratic landslide only NC will be seriously contested anyway. You could phrase that sentence as any four of NC/GA/WI/AZ/PA/MI is the GOP path.

MN is an interesting one because -- like IA -- it has relatively high rural white fertility relative to the rest of the Midwest, such that I kind of expect it to trend right throughout the 2030s as parent/non-parent becomes a larger sticking point. But 2024 is way too soon for that, and the Twin Cities growing relatively fast by Midwestern standards probably means it will trend left, as does the general 2022 Midwestern leftward trend.

[Vosem]

Pretty easy to see AZ flipping back just off the back of certain third-party maneouvres

Do you think Kyrsten Sinema might have any bearing on the AZ presidential result, by the way?

Probably not. What I mean is that Arizona is historically a pretty decent state for third-party totals, and the Hobbs v. Lake race was unusual in not having a third-party option.

I would be surprised if GA/WI don't trend Democratic in 2024, but AZ might well go either direction. Many of the demographic trends there seem similar to FL a decade ago

What makes you say so?

Unusually old and unusually Hispanic in-migration; it's also one of the few states recording increases in religious observance, together with FL, which usually requires both factors to be present. I think the reason AZ hasn't gone in the direction of FL is just that the local GOP is not very competent, while the FLGOP is unusually competent, and this is mostly about institutions.

All Trump 2020 states must be held, but only NC will be seriously contested unless the election becomes a veritable Democratic landslide

Agreed.

MN boasts relatively high rural white fertility; throughout the 2030s, as parent/non-parent becomes a larger sticking point

What did you mean  by  this, specifically?

Over the past few cycles parents have usually trended Republican, while people in the same age bracket without children have trended Democratic. I can go find a county-by-county map, but in general Plains states tend to have higher fertility, with more people becoming parents, than Midwestern states do, and rural MN and IA have patterns that look more like ND and SD than WI and IL. I think this means that the state will eventually trend Republican.

the Twin Cities growing quickly means it's probably going to trend leftward

Yeah, I suppose  this  sounds  somewhat  plausible, reasonable, realistic and broadly fathomable.

the 2022 Midwestern leftward trend.

You think that's actually going to CONTINUE in 2024? Do you mean  relative to 2020 president, or the 2022 midterm races?

WI and PA still trended leftward
from 2020, by the way.

Relative to 2020-POTUS. Most of the Midwest trended Democratic in 2022, and even apart from that it's now trended Republican at multiple consecutive cycles and so is overdue for reversion to the mean. Wisconsin and Ohio have been ruled by Republicans for a while and seem to be experiencing some backlash over abortion. I think MI/PA look iffier, and in particular that the MI outcome from 2022 has patterns which seem pretty iffy for Democrats.

To wit: MI, unlike most places, had an extremely good turnout environment for Democrats, and one of the worst Republican campaigns in the nation. But the generic ballot -- for the US House, and state Senate and state House -- was around D+1-2. This is hard to interpret, because the combined total for state Supreme Court candidates was D+19, and no statewide race was any worse than D+8. But the former sort of implies a rightward trend, and I think in general a new trifecta usually causes backlash.

I'm not predicting this happening, but one 2024 Election Night surprise that would make me go, "oh, wait, in hindsight that actually that makes sense" would be MI voting right of WI. Madison has much more impressive left-wing growth than Ann Arbor, and Milwaukee is not declining the way Detroit is.

[Vosem]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

No, Philadelphia is quite literally becoming redder as African-American turnout drops relative to white turnout. Democrats got a smaller absolute vote margin out of it in 2020 than 2016 in spite of a huge turnout surge. (It has also been losing population pretty fast post-2020). It's still going to absolutely be very blue for a long time, but a large part of why PA swung so tepidly in 2020 was that Philadelphia swung 3 points right.

I think it's kind of difficult to say which of the three of WI/MI/PA is going to be the most favorable for Trump. Assuming a decent Sunbelt performance, he needs at least one of them to win. PA has the best Democratic state party, while WI has historically had the best Republican one; WI probably has the best long-term demographic changes for Democrats, while it's MI for Repubicans. PA has a really consistent tiny Republican trend; it hasn't trended left at any election since 2004.

There is absolutely no path to victory without at least one of those three states. (Two out of three is the GOP has won probably; one out of the three would've been enough in 2016/2020, but Sunbelt trends aren't great and might not be enough for 2016).

My pretty strong guess is that AZ should be an easier lift than GA, particularly for Trump. AZ's demographic changes don't really seem to be all that bad for Republicans anymore, and the state's conservatives are pretty culturally in tune with where Trump is. GA is still getting blacker, still has an unusually educated Republican base with more room to fall in principle, and also is a place where Trump has an unusually bad reputation. Quite plausibly AZ/PA/WI is easier than GA.

(That said even a tiny relative decline in AA turnout could absolutely be lethal for GA Democrats.)