Most populous county to vote Republican

[Vosem]

Maricopa if the Republican wins, Suffolk if he loses.

[Vosem]

Maricopa if the Republican wins, Suffolk if he loses.

I suspect Maricopa is gone for Trump even if he wins the state.

I don't think there's a reason to think a county Kari Lake -- who was at least vaguely perceived as more extreme than Trump -- only lost 49-51 is unwinnable even for a very hard MAGA Republican in the correct environment.

Maricopa if the Republican wins…

Maricopa County, and the state of Arizona, have realigned to the Democrats.

The next Republican pickup of the presidency will see the losing Democratic nominee carry Arizona (and, with it, Maricopa County).

This feels unlikely; every Republican that did better than a literal 50-50 carried Maricopa in 2022, including some that did so by double-digits (combined state legislative results, Kimberly Yee). I think there are reasons to think that AZ is continuing to trend Democratic, based on in-migration trends, but it's also very noticeable that AZ had a weak Republican slate in 2022 and where a candidate managed to run as "basically Generic Republican" they won the place we're discussing by double-digits. (Places similar to Maricopa elsewhere in the US also often voted Republican and sometimes very comfortably).

[Vosem]

Maricopa if the Republican wins, Suffolk if he loses.

I suspect Maricopa is gone for Trump even if he wins the state.

I don't think there's a reason to think a county Kari Lake -- who was at least vaguely perceived as more extreme than Trump -- only lost 49-51 is unwinnable even for a very hard MAGA Republican in the correct environment.

Maricopa if the Republican wins…

Maricopa County, and the state of Arizona, have realigned to the Democrats.

The next Republican pickup of the presidency will see the losing Democratic nominee carry Arizona (and, with it, Maricopa County).

This feels unlikely; every Republican that did better than a literal 50-50 carried Maricopa in 2022, including some that did so by double-digits (combined state legislative results, Kimberly Yee). I think there are reasons to think that AZ is continuing to trend Democratic, based on in-migration trends, but it's also very noticeable that AZ had a weak Republican slate in 2022 and where a candidate managed to run as "basically Generic Republican" they won the place we're discussing by double-digits. (Places similar to Maricopa elsewhere in the US also often voted Republican and sometimes very comfortably).

I do think Maricopa is winnable for a non Trump republican but I still expect it to vote to the left of the state. I don't think Rs even need Maricopa county to win AZ anymore

Well, Tom Horne won without Maricopa for state Education Superintendent. But his statewide win rounded to 50-50, and his Maricopa loss rounded to 49-51. I think you're right that Maricopa is left of the state nowadays, but it isn't by very much, and "Republicans win AZ but lose Maricopa" is just a very narrow target to hit. (Growing over time as Maricopa continues trending D and rural outstate Arizona to some extent continues to trend R, but still not very large at all).