Most populous county to vote Republican

[Roll Roons]

Only listing ones where Trump came within 15 points of winning in 2020. Counties with one asterisk voted for him in 2016 but flipped to Biden, while counties with two voted for him in 2020.

[Suburbia]

Suffolk, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach or Orange if Trump or DeSantis

[Spectator]

Probably Suffolk again.

[Alben Barkley]

My gut tells me Miami-Dade is flipping this year even if Biden wins again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably Suffolk again.

How hard is it for Biden to flip 300 votes?

[DaleCooper]

My gut tells me Miami-Dade is flipping this year even if Biden wins again.

Especially if Democrats put very little money into the state, as I am hoping they don't. It's a money pit and has not been an essential part of the Democrats' path to 270 for over 20 years. I usually hate "triaging" but in Florida's case it's worth it next year.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm going with Riverside on this one.

[DS0816]

The path to carrying Texas includes both Denton and Collin counties. So, if Texas ends up a 2024 Republican hold…I would expect them to carry. And, as of 05.21.2023, I don’t think a 2024 Democratic hold of the presidency of the United States will come with a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin which is strong enough to deliver a Democratic pickup of Texas.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm going with Riverside on this one.

Nah, I don't see Trump's margin improving much from 2016/2020 and I think DeSantis would likely do around Romney's margin here (At this juncture)

[Spectator]

Probably Suffolk again.

How hard is it for Biden to flip 300 votes?

New York’s suburbs/exurbs seem to be much more receptive to Trumpism politics than most other metro areas. I think Trump will lose ground in most places outside of Florida, New York, Iowa, and a few other non-competitive states.

And for the comment that said Riverside—Riverside has been much more Democratic in presidential years than in gubernatorial years. It even voted for Cox in 2018! I don’t think anything can be read into the results last year from Southern California other than typical sh**tty Dem turnout in gubernatorial years.

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably Suffolk again.

How hard is it for Biden to flip 300 votes?

New York’s suburbs/exurbs seem to be much more receptive to Trumpism politics than most other metro areas. I think Trump will lose ground in most places outside of Florida, New York, Iowa, and a few other non-competitive states.

And for the comment that said Riverside—Riverside has been much more Democratic in presidential years than in gubernatorial years. It even voted for Cox in 2018! I don’t think anything can be read into the results last year from Southern California other than typical sh**tty Dem turnout in gubernatorial years.

Except that it was Trump who only won it by 300 votes. I think DeSantis would do better than Trump in those suburbs.

[TheReckoning]

My gut tells me Miami-Dade is flipping this year even if Biden wins again.

Especially if Democrats put very little money into the state, as I am hoping they don't. It's a money pit and has not been an essential part of the Democrats' path to 270 for over 20 years. I usually hate "triaging" but in Florida's case it's worth it next year.

Didn’t Miami-Dade vote for Clinton by, like, 30 points?

A 30 point swing in an urban county towards Republicans over 8 years? Not happening.

[DaleCooper]

My gut tells me Miami-Dade is flipping this year even if Biden wins again.

Especially if Democrats put very little money into the state, as I am hoping they don't. It's a money pit and has not been an essential part of the Democrats' path to 270 for over 20 years. I usually hate "triaging" but in Florida's case it's worth it next year.

Didn’t Miami-Dade vote for Clinton by, like, 30 points?

A 30 point swing in an urban county towards Republicans over 8 years? Not happening.

It swung over 20 points towards Republicans in 4 years.

[TheReckoning]

My gut tells me Miami-Dade is flipping this year even if Biden wins again.

Especially if Democrats put very little money into the state, as I am hoping they don't. It's a money pit and has not been an essential part of the Democrats' path to 270 for over 20 years. I usually hate "triaging" but in Florida's case it's worth it next year.

Didn’t Miami-Dade vote for Clinton by, like, 30 points?

A 30 point swing in an urban county towards Republicans over 8 years? Not happening.

It swung over 20 points towards Republicans in 4 years.

Still, a county that’s majority immigrant and only 13% non-Hispanic white? Just seems so counter intuitive.

[Roronoa D. Law]

My gut tells me Miami-Dade is flipping this year even if Biden wins again.

Especially if Democrats put very little money into the state, as I am hoping they don't. It's a money pit and has not been an essential part of the Democrats' path to 270 for over 20 years. I usually hate "triaging" but in Florida's case it's worth it next year.

Didn’t Miami-Dade vote for Clinton by, like, 30 points?

A 30 point swing in an urban county towards Republicans over 8 years? Not happening.

It swung over 20 points towards Republicans in 4 years.

Still, a county that’s majority immigrant and only 13% non-Hispanic white? Just seems so counter intuitive.

 From what I heard Miami follows Spanish colonial racial dynamics. So it relatively low non-hispanic white population has allowed lighter skin Hispanic to fill the void of the majority class.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump- Miami-Dade
DeSantis- Orange

[Spectator]

Probably Suffolk again.

How hard is it for Biden to flip 300 votes?

New York’s suburbs/exurbs seem to be much more receptive to Trumpism politics than most other metro areas. I think Trump will lose ground in most places outside of Florida, New York, Iowa, and a few other non-competitive states.

And for the comment that said Riverside—Riverside has been much more Democratic in presidential years than in gubernatorial years. It even voted for Cox in 2018! I don’t think anything can be read into the results last year from Southern California other than typical sh**tty Dem turnout in gubernatorial years.

Except that it was Trump who only won it by 300 votes. I think DeSantis would do better than Trump in those suburbs.

Okay, you are entitled to entertain hypotheticals like DeSantis being the nominee. I’m not going to engage in that fairy tale line of thinking. Trump will be the nominee unless he dies.

[Kamala's side hoe]

No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

[Gracile]

I will say Suffolk again because I think the 2022 election results are not total one-offs and indicate a trend toward the GOP in Long Island. Miami-Dade is possible, too, but I'm iffier because I think the Democrats will have enough of a floor with black voters and white liberals to eke out a narrow win.

[Vosem]

Maricopa if the Republican wins, Suffolk if he loses.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Maricopa if the Republican wins, Suffolk if he loses.

[DaleCooper]

Maricopa if the Republican wins, Suffolk if he loses.

I suspect Maricopa is gone for Trump even if he wins the state.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

But thats the thing, a non Trump republican has a good chance of winning the NPV whether they are winning the EC or not

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

But thats the thing, a non Trump republican has a good chance of winning the NPV whether they are winning the EC or not

Says who? A Republican has only won the NPV once in the last 31 years.

A Republican presidential candidate has a very slim to none chance of winning the NPV.

[Roronoa D. Law]

No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

But thats the thing, a non Trump republican has a good chance of winning the NPV whether they are winning the EC or not

Republicans have fallen behind in a lot of large metropolitan areas and I think that problem will persist whether Trump is the nominee or not. So with current coalition Democrats are favored to win the PV in any competitive election. If a Republican is winning the PV then they already well pass 300+ EV. I also dont see a Republican winning the EV and losing PV happening at all unless we see some strange realingment.