Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: May 23, 2023, 09:25:26 AM » |
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Molinaro seems like a stronger candidate, and his district is redder, particularly historically. (That said, Torie is correct that Molinaro's seat is probably trending Democratic faster than Williams', which may not be trending Democratic at all). Williams is a weaker incumbent; he is probably the most-ideological of the 2022 New York intake. Also, Williams won by marginally less than Molinaro.
My guess is that NY-22 is the better target for Democrats. I think most of the parts of the Hudson River Valley that trended Democratic in 2022 are also in NY-18, Pat Ryan's seat, rather than NY-19, though that's just me eyeballing the map and I say it with low confidence.
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