NY-19 VS NY-22 2024

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Assume the map is unchanged. Districts are fairly similar, NY-19 is Biden+5 and NY-22 is Biden+7

[wesmoorenerd]

Molinaro, by virtue of having a marginally bluer and less urban district and being a stronger incumbent. Wouldn't want to be either though.

[Torie]

Ithaca is the sword of Damocles against Molinaro, and the Hudson River valley is steadily gentrifying now pretty much everywhere, as educated urban type whites are moving in, who are mostly hostile to the current Pub presentation. The central part of the district is not enough ballast to steady his tenure.

So I suspect Molinaro is a short term rental, and he won't do any better than the Pub POTUS nominee.

Syracuse and Utica is a much more stable situation, with Utica trending Pub, and its being free of Ithaca's influence and those Bourgeoisie Finger Lakes type places, that are trending Dem. The more prosperous looking a place in general, the more it is trending Dem. Karl Marx would be very confused.

So Williams it is.

[Vosem]

Molinaro seems like a stronger candidate, and his district is redder, particularly historically. (That said, Torie is correct that Molinaro's seat is probably trending Democratic faster than Williams', which may not be trending Democratic at all). Williams is a weaker incumbent; he is probably the most-ideological of the 2022 New York intake. Also, Williams won by marginally less than Molinaro.

My guess is that NY-22 is the better target for Democrats. I think most of the parts of the Hudson River Valley that trended Democratic in 2022 are also in NY-18, Pat Ryan's seat, rather than NY-19, though that's just me eyeballing the map and I say it with low confidence.

[Torie]

About 20 percent of NY-19 is in the Hudson Valley, a lot less than before of course. But that combined with the other 15% in hyper Dem high turnout Thompkins is not good for Molinaro's long term tenure.