AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

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Sinema is deliberately trying to throw this election to the GOP and it's glorious.

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So far only Mark Lamb has announced so far, KTR is considering it and its possible she jumps in. As for Kari Lake I think its possible but her running could split the MAGA vote between Lamb and makes it much easier for KTR to win the primary.

Splitting the MAGA vote in the primary is the best - and possibly only - path the mainstream party leadership really has going forward to address the candidate quality mess. See the Kansas 2020 primary as a prime example of this.

It's obviously not fool-proof (didn't work in Pennsylvania in 2022) and is not a systemic solution nor a sustainable one in the long-term, and it requires significant energy, investment, and perfectly-choreographed moves to get it right, but will be interesting to see if its used effectively this cycle (right now it looks like its not - the strategy instead seems to be recruiting more mainstream self-funders).

Well, depends on if MAGA candidates (here meaning ones similar to Lake) are getting stronger or weaker in the long run; Arizona specifically has long had a pretty intense divide between, let's say, a conspiracy wing and a non-conspiracy wing, and the former has never actually eclipsed 50% in a contested 21st-century statewide primary. (Lake won by 5 points, 48-43, in the midst of an unusual primary turnout surge for 'conspiracy wing' candidates, whose repetition feels at least uncertain). They've also long had problems uniting in the absence of Trump endorsements.

Almost as a rule in the Trump era, 'candidates who win primaries narrowly because of Trump endorsements, then lose the general election', do not win repeat primaries. (Kris Kobach and Katie Arrington come to mind, as do others on the House level). They do sometimes successfully run for lower offices, though (again, Kris Kobach and John Gibbs come to mind). In that sense, Lake winning a primary after her losing her first bid would be a pretty unusual event. (Also, Lake triggered an attempt at unifying around a consensus anti-Lake, which was really unusual in GOP primaries -- nothing like this happened to even quite controversial Trump choices elsewhere, like Herbster or Vance or Oz). So I am skeptical of Lake winning a primary here in 2024, though I'm sure a poll conducted now would show her winning purely through name recognition. (Also, Lamb is if anything a deeper conspiracy-wing candidate than Lake, and there really isn't room for two of them in a single primary.)

The PA-Sen 2022 primary is an extremely strange one because you could argue with a straight face that any of the top three candidates were the MAGA candidates; Oz had the Trump endorsement, Barnette had the conspiracy-theorizing, but McCormick had the on-the-ground MAGA support and actual, like, support pattern. (There was also a regionalist aspect to that where Oz ran stronger in eastern PA and McCormick ran stronger in western PA). That primary in particular feels really hard to draw conclusions from that apply to Arizona. (Also, like, Oz deliberately tried to appeal to more educated voters in the primary! While having the Trump endorsement! The race had really unique patterns.)

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https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

In states with a convention system, this would be an option. In states without a convention, the GOP would need to nominate someone who would willingly drop out for Sinema -- very unlikely. Also, I agree with oldtimer: Sinema's ship for switching to the GOP has sailed. Had she switched the day after the Georgia runoffs (or actually handed the Senate to McConnell), she could've made it; had she acted to prevent Biden judicial nominees from getting through, she could've made it. As it stands it's far too late and she's lost her leverage.

If Kari Lake doesn't run for the Senate (...it kind of vaguely looks like she won't), there'll be an open primary. One fairly serious candidate, Mark Lamb, is already in (I think he would be weak in the general, like Finchem/Lake, but they lost by 0-4 points, so in a better environment he could be a live opportunity). Probably more will enter.

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https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

In states with a convention system, this would be an option. In states without a convention, the GOP would need to nominate someone who would willingly drop out for Sinema -- very unlikely. Also, I agree with oldtimer: Sinema's ship for switching to the GOP has sailed. Had she switched the day after the Georgia runoffs (or actually handed the Senate to McConnell), she could've made it; had she acted to prevent Biden judicial nominees from getting through, she could've made it. As it stands it's far too late and she's lost her leverage.

If Kari Lake doesn't run for the Senate (...it kind of vaguely looks like she won't), there'll be an open primary. One fairly serious candidate, Mark Lamb, is already in (I think he would be weak in the general, like Finchem/Lake, but they lost by 0-4 points, so in a better environment he could be a live opportunity). Probably more will enter.

Doesn't the AZ GOP make their own rules though? Why can't they just decline to put up a candidate?

...no, rules regarding how major parties choose their candidates are almost always set by the state government. In some states, like VA and UT, there is a degree of flexibility, but that's actually pretty unusual.