Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1329083570669768705?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mbaram/status/1329896177073074182?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1338647663164723202
Jon Ossoff is leaving Fortress Atlanta to venture out to more isolated Blue outposts in red territory.

It makes sense considering that these places have a substantial share of black voters

Also the smaller cities like Columbus, Athens, and Kavanaugh are a major part of what helped to deliver GA to Biden. Yes Atlanta played a huge role, but Atlanta by itself isn't enough by itself the way Chicago or NYC is.

City of Kavanaugh?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1346311252809830402?s=20

[Gass3268]

Being serious here, but after putting all the anecdotal stories together it appears that the Atlanta area (both Dem and GOP areas) are having very strong turnout, while the rest of the state appears to be lacking.

[Gass3268]

Being serious here, but after putting all the anecdotal stories together it appears that the Atlanta area (both Dem and GOP areas) are having very strong turnout, while the rest of the state appears to be lacking.

Can you post a compilation of all of the anecdotal stories?

MT Treasurer had the anecdote about Cherokee County.

Charles Bethea, a Atlanta based New Yorker reporter, has many tweets about varying levels of turnout across the state

[Gass3268]

Being serious here, but after putting all the anecdotal stories together it appears that the Atlanta area (both Dem and GOP areas) are having very strong turnout, while the rest of the state appears to be lacking.

Can you post a compilation of all of the anecdotal stories?

MT Treasurer had the anecdote about Cherokee County.

Charles Bethea, a Atlanta based New Yorker reporter, has many tweets about varying levels of turnout across the state

Atlanta Journal Constitution is also reporting low turnout statewide.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1346525028855271426?s=20

[Gass3268]

Any more anecdotal turnout reports for us to glean over?

Talked to friends today in DeKalb, Chatham, Athens-Clarke, Bibb, Tift and Catoosa counties.

Savannah, Macon and Athens are apparently anemic; DeKalb ~10 minute wait; the longest lines were apparently in very Republican Tift and Catoosa counties.

All the media reports of low turnout are focusing around Atlanta and other D-leaning cities like Columbus or Augusta; they need to send a CNN crew up to Dalton or Blairsville or something

We have multiple reports from Dalton, turnout out has been average.

[Gass3268]

either Nate Cohn is reading this wrong or something crazy is happening in DeKalb

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346544945730105345

would it be preposterous for D counties to also have high turnout? weren't they not cannibalizing their E-day voters?

either way, exit polls typically arrive at 5pm EST, dont they?

Most of what I saw online had Republicans cannibalizing more of their E-day voters during the early vote.

[Gass3268]

Sterling expects turnout to be less than 1 million today:

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1346559270406520834?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1346564158712664066?s=21

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1346554754248400897?s=21

[Gass3268]

The runoff system is in the state constitution, right? They would need Democratic votes I think to make the change.

[Gass3268]

The anecdotal turnout reports (for whatever they're worth) are all pretty good for the Rs now. Earlier this morning they were pretty mixed.

Dekalb County?

[Gass3268]

Similar gender breakdown on gender

62% White, 29% Black 5% Latino 2% Asian 2% Other.

13% 18-29
23% 30-44
38% 45-64
25% 65 +

39% GOP 36% Dem 25% Indy

Those racial numbers look almost identical to the general election.

[Gass3268]

The anecdotal turnout reports (for whatever they're worth) are all pretty good for the Rs now. Earlier this morning they were pretty mixed.

Dekalb County?

the highest turnout is in the Republican corner (Dunwoody) which follows what's happening statewide

Dunwoody was like Biden +20 this year.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1346565943393193988

Is Cherokee County rural? I was under the impression it was mostly suburban.

Houston isn't really rural, either. It's small-city.

Yeah I’m from there... we’re definitely not a rural county. We’re conservative, yeah, but Biden performed pretty well there.

I remember the late updates from Houston being pretty brutal for Trump.

[Gass3268]

Similar gender breakdown on gender

62% White, 29% Black 5% Latino 2% Asian 2% Other.

13% 18-29
23% 30-44
38% 45-64
25% 65 +

39% GOP 36% Dem 25% Indy

Those racial numbers look almost identical to the general election.

The concerning number is the age number for Democrats. The age gap among whites in the South is gigantic and younger white voters are critical for the math to work. Granted on the other hand, how many angry boomer suburbanites are voting their anger on Trump and vote Democrat as a result.

The partisan breakdown is also GOP +1, DEM +2, Indy -3 compared to November. Agreed the age is concerning, but the other numbers look fine.

[Gass3268]

Similar gender breakdown on gender

62% White, 29% Black 5% Latino 2% Asian 2% Other.

13% 18-29
23% 30-44
38% 45-64
25% 65 +

39% GOP 36% Dem 25% Indy

Is that ELECTION day or combine with early vote?

If combine with early vote it’s over early.

If it’s Election Day isn’t that ...really good for Dems?

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1346582662295785472?s=20

[Gass3268]

Similar gender breakdown on gender

62% White, 29% Black 5% Latino 2% Asian 2% Other.

13% 18-29
23% 30-44
38% 45-64
25% 65 +

39% GOP 36% Dem 25% Indy

Is that ELECTION day or combine with early vote?

If combine with early vote it’s over early.

If it’s Election Day isn’t that ...really good for Dems?

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1346582662295785472?s=20

so that means the exit poll is just Election Day?

No it's everything, but that means that the Election Day vote only dropped the black % by 2 points.

[Gass3268]

Watched Fox for a second to get their exits:

Direction of the Country? 36% right direction / 64% wrong direction

Worried about Perdue/Loeffler insider stock trading? 56% yes / 44% no

Most important issue?
Coronavirus 43%
Economy/Jobs 27%
Healthcare 8%
Racism 8%

Perdue’s support of Trump? 44% too much, 9% too little, 47% right amount
Loeffler’s support of Trump? 47% too much, 9% too little, 44% right amount

Ossoff trust worthy & honest: 50/50
Perdue trust worthy & honest: 46/54

Warnock trust worthy & honest: 52/48
Loeffler trust worthy & honest: 44/56

Trump’s handling of 2020 election results: 44% approve / 56% disapprove
Raffensberger’s handling of 2020 election results: 59% approve / 41% disapprove

Confident votes were counted accurately in 2020 election? 62% yes / 38% no

Didn't know Fox/AP was doing exit polls for tonight. They are typically better than the Edison ones that CNN, NBC, et al. use.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1346607407653273601?s=20

[Gass3268]

I think Warnock is a good guy, he'll make a good senator. Don't know Ossoff that well, but he can still lose so suppose thats alright. The real question here is, what parts of the Biden agenda get forwarded and does the Republican party continue to embrace Trumpism or run away from it.

Trump belongs in the dustbin, so one can hope that gets fixed. As far as the Dem agenda goes, perhaps some Climate legislation would be good. The rest of the Bernie stuff belongs in the trash with trump and doesnt sell particularly well either.

Two things things basically:

1. Biden's judges could get through for 2 years. Including if Justice Breyer were to retire.
2. Anything financial could get passed via reconciliation. This could include repealing parts of the Trump tax bill and passing $2,000 checks.

Again, they both have to keep the lead tonight.

[Gass3268]

Do you have a link to that?

[Gass3268]

She's a liberal, but she knows Georgia extreamly well:

https://twitter.com/goldietaylor/status/1346639427297304576?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346641272803651584

Was just about to post this, amazing!